tren terdalam 2008, dow jones industrial average saat KRISIS FINANSIAL GLOBAL akibat salah manajemen UTANG KREDIT PERUMAHAN (subprime mortgage)
nah, jika dibandingkan tren CRASH @ DJIA dalam 20 taon lebe, saat Great Recession 2008 lah yang paling BERIMBAS KE DJIA
saat ini, per 2018, lom ada gejala RIIL (contoh: ambruknya perusahaan2 raksasa pemberi pinjaman perumahan amrik @ 2008, bank2 investasi raksasa global) yang terkait ekonomi RIIL global n amrik.
emang seh, ada kecemasan siklus 10 taon (2008 lalu 2018, mirip kayak dugaan BANJIR JAKARTA dengan daur 5 taonan, katanya, padahal nyaris setiap taon juga bisa terjadi BANJIR JAKARTA)
nah, data terbaik dari hasil penelitian 2 Doktor Ekonomi amrik, Reinhardt-Rogoff, soal KRISIS EKONOMI dunia, maka ditemukan dalam setidaknya 200 taon, selalu terjadi KRISIS TAHUNAN (dengan tingkat kedahsyatan yang berbeda-beda).
Koreksi dalam bentuk CRASH @ bursa saham 2008 terutama terkait dengan ekspektasi BERLEBEHAN (euforia) berkonflik dengan ekspektasi TEKANAN BERLEBEHAN (depresi). Kepribadian ekonomi global yang BIPOLAR ini uda slalu terjadi.
Siapa yang jadi korbannya? Well, yang ikut arus EUFORIA n DEPRESIF tersebut.
🍗
per tgl 06 Februari 2018, indeks saham AS berbalik arah mantul naek (rebound) dari CRASH ("weiji"):
🍍
msn: Investors said the markets were also adjusting to Powell, whom President Donald Trump chose to replace Janet Yellen, an appointee of his Democratic predecessor Barack Obama.
Despite the general assumption that the Fed would continue in a similar fashion under Powell, market watchers have cited change atop the central bank as a risk factor.
“People are just getting to know (Powell). His testimony is going to be pored over, analyzed, studied,” said John Carey, portfolio manager at Amundi Pioneer Asset Management in Boston.
Powell’s first workday as Fed chair was Feb 5, the same day as the stock market’s biggest one-day plunge in more than six years.
In questioning during Tuesday’s hearing, Powell was asked about the stock market, whose rise Trump has often touted.
“We don’t manage the stock market; we manage to stable prices and maximum employment,” Powell said. “The stock market enters into our thinking; it’s an important place for businesses to raise capital; it’s an important place for investors to invest.”
He added: “The stock market is not the economy, but it’s a factor, it plays a factor.”
There have been concerns that the recently enacted tax cuts touted by Trump would over-stimulate the economy and spark too much inflation.
🌳
msn: "I think this bull market is basically in the process of forming a top," Ruchir Sharma, a chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday. "This is the first crack of it. Bull-market tops tend to be a process, not an event," he said. "The reason why this is likely to play out this year is the trifecta which has been driving global stocks over the last 12-to-18 months as a big tailwind is now bound to turn into a headwind."
The trifecta Sharma refers to is better-than-expected global growth, weaker-than-expected inflation and loose monetary policy.
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Pemerintahan Presiden Amerika Serikat (AS) Donald Trump disebut-sebut prihatin dengan depresiasi mata uang yuan China dan mempertimbangkan apakah akan menamai China sebagai manipulator mata uang dalam laporan yang akan dirilis pekan depan.
Menteri Keuangan AS Steven Mnuchin telah menghadapi tekanan dari Gedung Putih untuk secara resmi menamai China sebagai manipulator mata uang dalam laporan tersebut.
Dilansir Bloomberg, nilai tukar yuan telah turun 9% terhadap dolar AS dalam enam bulan terakhir sekaligus mencatat salah satu kinerja terburuk di Asia.
Hal ini meningkatkan spekulasi bahwa China telah dengan sengaja melemahkan mata uangnya saat tensi perdagangan dengan AS telah memanas.
Tanpa memberikan penjelasan lebih lanjut, seorang pejabat senior di Kementerian Keuangan AS, yang tak diidentifikasi, mengungkapkan bahwa pemerintah AS memantau pergerakan mata uang China dengan seksama dan prihatin tentang depresiasinya baru-baru ini.
Informasi itu diberikannya menanggapi pertanyaan selama briefing menjelang kunjungan Mnuchin pekan ini ke Bali, Indonesia, untuk menghadiri pertemuan menteri keuangan dan gubernur bank sentral di bawah naungan Dana Moneter Internasional dan Bank Dunia.
Presiden Donald Trump diketahui pernah menuding China dan Uni Eropa memanipulasi mata uang mereka dalam sebuah cuitan di akun Twitter pada Juli.
“China, Uni Eropa, dan lainnya telah memanipulasi mata uang dan suku bunga mereka lebih rendah, sementara AS menaikkan suku bunga dengan dolar semakin kuat dan kuat setiap harinya - mengambil keunggulan besar kami,” tulis Trump.
Meski tidak berpotensi memicu sanksi atau penalti lainnya dari AS, mendeklarasikan China sebagai manipulator mata uang dapat meningkatkan ketegangan perdagangan dan kemungkinan memicu reaksi pasar.
“AS memiliki banyak masalah dengan China, dan ini merupakan cara lain bagi pemerintah untuk mengatakan: Kami tidak senang dengan keadaan yang sedang terjadi,” kata Phillip Swagel, seorang pejabat Departemen Keuangan selama pemerintahan George W. Bush.
Departemen Keuangan AS belum mencap negara mana pun sebagai manipulator sejak Bill Clinton memerintah. Sementara itu, China telah dikenakan cap ini sebanyak lima kali dari Mei 1992 hingga Juli 1994.
🍂
BEIJING, KOMPAS.com — Meskipun China belum menerapkan sanksi untuk impor minyak Amerika Serikat, tampaknya perusahaan-perusahaan minyak asal China rupanya tidak mau mengambil risiko. Negara dengan ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia ini telah menghentikan pembelian minyak mentah AS sejak Agustus lalu berdasarkan data Biro Sensus Amerika Serikat yang diterbitkan pada Jumat (5/10/2018). Berhentinya impor minyak mentah dari AS oleh China adalah yang pertama kalinya sejak September 2016. Pada Juli, China sempat menerima 12 juta barel dari AS. Dikutip dari Bloomberg, China sebelumnya merupakan salah satu importir minyak AS terbesar setelah AS mencabut pembatasan ekspor pada Desember 2015, bahkan berkali berebut posisi dengan Kanada dalam posisi importir minyak AS terbesar. Namun, minat China terhadap minyak AS berkurang di tengah semakin meningkatnya ketegangan perdagangan di anara kedua negara. Baca juga: Putin: Trump Harusnya Salahkan Dirinya Sendiri atas Penyebab Lonjakan Harga Minyak Adapun Juni lalu, Beijing telah mengancam akan memberikan tarif 25 persen untuk impor minyak mentah AS sebagai bentuk tanggapan atas pemberian tarif untuk 10 miliar dollar AS produk impor China yang dilakukan Presiden Trump. Perusahaan minyak terbesar China, Sinopec, kemudian menangguhkan beberapa pengiriman minyak mentah dari AS meski kemudian melanjutkan beberapa pembelian selepas minyak mentah dihapus dari daftar produk yang akan dikenai tarif. Masa depan impor minyak mentah AS oleh China masih belum pasti, dan masih belum ada jaminan bahwa ancaman tarif minyak mentah AS tidak akan muncul kembali ketika konflik perdagangan masih berlanjut. Produsen minyak AS berisiko akan merasakan dampak dari ketegangan perdagangan seiring dengan semakin meningkatnya penjualan mereka ke luar negeri lantaran permintaan domestik sedang menurun.
SEOUL – Semakin banyak perusahaan Asia yang berupaya memindahkan produksi dari China ke pabrik lain di kawasan seiring penerapan tarif impor China oleh Presiden Amerika Serikat (AS) Donald Trump. Perusahaan-perusahaan termasuk SK Hynix dari Korea Selatan (Korsel) dan Mitsubishi Electric, Toshiba Machine Co, serta Komatsu dari Jepang mulai merencanakan pemindahan produksi sejak Juli, saat tarif pertama berlaku.
Pemindahan itu sekarang sedang berlangsung menurut perwakilan perusahaan dan pihak lain yang mengetahui rencana tersebut. Produsen komputer asal Taiwan, Compal Electronics dan LG Electronics asal Korsel sedang membuat rencana antisipasi jika perang dagang terus berlanjut atau kian memburuk. Sejumlah perwakilan dan sumber lain itu menjelaskan perkembangan itu secara anonim pada kantor berita Reuters karena isu itu sensitif. Reaksi cepat terhadap tarif AS itu mungkin terjadi karena banyak manufaktur besar memiliki fasilitas di sejumlah negara dan bisa memindahkan sebagian kecil produksi tanpa membangun pabrik baru. Beberapa pemerintahan seperti di Taiwan dan Thailand secara aktif mendorong perusahaan- perusahaan untuk memindahkan pekerjaan dari China. AS menerapkan 25% tarif mencakup barang-barang buatan China senilai USD50 miliar pada Juli lalu.
AS kemudian menerapkan lagi tarif 10% pada barang-barang China sebesar USD200 miliar yang akan mulai berlaku pekan depan. Tarif yang diberlakukan akan naik menjadi 25% pada akhir tahun ini. Presiden AS Donald Trump juga mengancam paket tarif ketiga sebesar USD267 miliar yang akan menjadikan semua produk impor dari China ke AS terkena tarif. Tarif itu mengancam status China sebagai basis produksi rendah biaya seiring meluasnya pasar China yang menarik banyak perusahaan membangun pabrik dan jaringan suplai di negara itu dalam beberapa dekade terakhir. Pada perusahaan pembuat chip memori komputer SK Hynix, pekerjaan sedang berlangsung untuk memindahkan produksi beberapa modul chip kembali ke Korsel dari China. Seperti juga perusahaan AS, Micron Technology yang memindahkan beberapa produksi chip memori dari China ke negara Asia lainnya. (Syarifudin)
🌷
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Sektor industri yang sensitif terhadap perdagangan memimpin Dow Jones Industrial Average ke rekor penutupan tertinggi sepanjang masa pada perdagangan Kamis, (20/9/2018).
Ketiga indeks utama AS ditutup menguat karena kekhawatiran perdagangan mereda. Perusahaan teknologi memimpin indeks Nasdaq bersama dengan S&P 500 yang juga mencapai level penutupan tertinggi.
Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average ditutup menguat 251,22 poin atau 0,95% ke level 26.656,98, sedangkan indeks Standard & Poor’s 500 naik 22,8 poin atau 0,78% ke 2.930,75 dan Nasdaq Composite menguat 78,19 poin atau 0,98% ke 8,028,23.
Terakhir kali S&P dan Dow mencapai rekor tertinggi sepanjang masa tanpa diikuti Nasdaq adalah pada 13 Desember 2017.
Microsoft Corp dan Apple Inc menguat masing-masing 1,7% dan 0,8%. Perusahaan-perusahaan tersebut memimpin kenaikan 1,2% pada sektor teknologi.
Dilansir Bloomberg, pasar saham menyikapi sengketa perdagangan yang sedang berlangsung dengan tenang. Selain itu, indeks juga didorong oleh pelemahan indeks dolar AS yang jatuh ke level terendah dalam lebih dari sepuluh pekan terakhir. Dolar yang lebih lemah mendukung peningkatan ekspor AS.
"Ketika indeks dikonfirmasi mencapai level tertinggi baru, orang melihat itu sebagai sinyal yang jelas dan mereka coba masuk ke pasar," kata Mark Hackett, kepala penelitian investasi di Nationwide, seperti dikutip Bloomberg.
Bernard Baumohl, kepala ekonom global di Economic Outlook Group mengungkapkan hal senada, namun menambahkan adanya alasan untuk berhati-hati.
"Pasar saham menyerupai orang mabuk di puncak bukit. Dia bergoyang-goyang dan Anda tahu orang mabuk itu akan jatuh tetapi tidak tahu kapan atau seberapa keras jatuhnya," ungkap Baumohl.
Dari 11 sektor utama indeks S&P 500, hanya sektor energi yang mengakhiri perdagangan di wilayah negatif.
Di antara kelompok saham FAANG, Netflix Inc ditutup melemah, sementara saham lainnya, Facebook Inc, Apple Inc, Amazon.com dan Alphabet Inc, menguat antara 0,8% hingga 1,8%.
Nike Inc naik 1,1% setelah analisis data penjualan online perusahaan oleh Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research mengungkapkan penjualan perusahaan meningkat 61% sejak kemunculan kampanye iklan yang menampilkan pemain NFL Colin Kaepernick.
Sementara itu, saham Under Armor Inc melonjak 6,6% karena perusahaan olahraga tersebut mengumumkan telah mmangkas 3% tenaga kerja sebagai bagian dari skema turnaround perusahaan.
Saham-saham defensif, termasuk Northrop Grumman Corp, Lockheed Martin Corp dan Raytheon Co melemah setelah AS mengatakan siap untuk melanjutkan pembicaraan dengan Korea Utara setelah Pyongyang berjanji untuk denuklirisasi pada 2021.
Sementara itu, saham General Electric Co tergelincir 3,1% setelah melaporkan masalah dengan turbin listrik terbarunya dan mendorong J.P. Morgan untuk menurunkan target harga saham emiten.
🌴
BEIJING (AP) — China on Tuesday announced a tariff hike on $60 billion of U.S. products in response to President Donald Trump’s latest duty increase in a dispute over Beijing’s technology policy.
The announcement followed a warning by an American business group that a ‘‘downward spiral’’ in their conflict appeared certain following Trump’s penalties on $200 billion of Chinese goods.
The Finance Ministry said it was going ahead with plans announced in August for the increases of 10 percent and 5 percent on 5,207 types of U.S. goods. A list released last month included coffee, honey and industrial chemicals.
The increase is aimed at curbing ‘‘trade friction’’ and the ‘‘unilateralism and protectionism of the United States,’’ the ministry said on its website. It appealed for ‘‘pragmatic dialogue’’ to ‘‘jointly safeguard the principle of free trade and the multilateral trading system.’’
The Trump administration announced the tariffs on some 5,000 Chinese-made goods will start at 10 percent, beginning Monday. They are to rise to 25 percent on Jan. 1.
🌹
Liputan6.com, New York - Bursa saham Amerika Serikat (AS) atau Wall Street melemah pada penutupan perdagangan hari Senin (Selasa pagi WIB) menjelang pengumuman kenaikan tarif barang impor barang China senilai USD 200 miliar oleh Presiden AS Donald Trump.
Saham konsumen discretionary dan teknologi mencetak penurunan terbesar karena investor terus berhitung mengenai dampak dari penerapan kebijakan yang diambil Trump tersebut,
Dilansir dari Reuters, Selasa (18/9/2018), indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average turun 92,55 poin atau 0,35 persen menjadi 26.062,12, indeks S&P 500 kehilangan 16,18 poin atau 0,56 persen menjadi 2.888,8 dan Nasdaq Composite turun 114,25 poin atau 1,43 persen menjadi 7.895,79. Ketiga indeks utama AS ditutup melemah, dengan indeks Nasdaq terbesar sejak akhir Juli.
Wall Street memperpanjang kerugiannya menjelang pengumuman tarif setelah Trump menegaskan keyakinannya bahwa defisit perdagangan Amerika Serikat dengan China terlalu besar. "Dan kita tidak bisa melakukan itu lagi," ungkapnya.
Barang-barang asal China yang akan dikenakan tarif impor tambahan di antaranya adalah produk-produk teknologi dan elektronik, papan sirkuit, dan barang-barang konsumer, seperti makanan laut, mebel, produk lampu, ban, bahan-bahan kimia, plastik, sepeda, dan jok mobil khusus untuk bayi.
Sebelumnya, China bersumpah tidak akan tinggal diam menghadapi perselisihan perdagangan yang terus meningkat, menambah semakin panasnya tensi perang dagang antara dua negara.
"Ini adalah yang keenam atau ketujuh kalinya kami berbicara tentang putaran tarif khusus ini," kata Paul Nolte, Manajer Portofolio Kingsview Asset Management di Chicago. "Trump merasa nyaman menaikkan tarif, dia yakin dia menang."
Saham konsumen discretionary dan teknologi menjadi kontributor penurunan terbesar pada S&P 500, yaitu turun masing-masing sebesar 1,3 persen dan 1,4 persen.
Saham Amazon.com (AMZN.O) memimpin penurunan di sektor saham konsumen sebesar 3,2 persen. Apple Inc (AAPL.O) mengatakan langkah-langkah yang diambil Trump bisa berimbas lebih luas lagi ke produk-produknya. Saham perusahan pembuat iPhone ini turun 2,7 persen, memberikan tekanan terbesar terhadap Dow Jones.
Momentum saham raksasa teknologi yang tergabung dalam FAANG termasuk Netflix (NFLX.O), Facebook (FB.O) dan Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O) ditutup turun antara 1,0 persen dan 3,9 persen.
🌸
MAR DEL PLATA (Reuters) - Trade and investment ministers from G20 countries meeting in Argentina said there was an "urgent need" to improve the World Trade Organization, a joint statement said on Friday.
With U.S. President Donald Trump readying tariffs on another $200 billion in Chinese goods, the ministers said they were "stepping up the dialogue" on international trade disputes, according to the statement issued at the summit. [nL2N1W017T]
It did not provide any details of possible WTO reforms or how dialogue on trade was being increased.
"Obviously the new tariff measures are not positive," Argentina's Production and Labor Minister, Dante Sica, said in a news conference at the end of the one-day meeting. "But we need to see how things evolve."
German Deputy Economy Minister Oliver Wittke said the joint declaration sent a powerful signal about the importance of strengthening WTO "especially in times of 'America first' and increasing global protectionism," with next steps to follow when G20 leaders meet in Argentina at the end of November.
"We have to use this momentum," Wittke said in a statement released by the ministry after the summit.
Outside the meeting, smoke filled the air in the normally tranquil seaside city of Mar Del Plata where the conference is being held. Protesters burned makeshift American flags and chanted against free trade orthodoxy and Trump's support of Argentina's cash-strapped President Mauricio Macri, whose fiscal belt-tightening has garnered a backlash from the country's working-class.
"We're standing here in solidarity with the workers of Latin America. While those politicians sleep in fancy beds, communities starve because of trade and adjustment policies that hurt the most vulnerable," protester Maralin Cornil, 30, said.
Argentina holds the G20's rotating presidency this year, and is re-negotiating a $50 billion stand-by financing deal with the IMF, cutting its fiscal deficit targets and reducing costs to ensure it can continue paying its international debts.
Trump has said he would attend the summit's final meeting with other heads of state, in Buenos Aires on November 30.
The Trump administration has demanded that China cut its $375 billion trade surplus with the United States, end policies aimed at acquiring U.S. technologies and intellectual property, and roll back high-tech industrial subsidies.
While Trump has threatened to pull the United States from the WTO, China has called for WTO reform to make the global trade system fairer and more effective. [nL3N1W01UG]
The 23-year-old trading club is run on the basis of consensus, meaning that every one of its 164 members has an effective veto and it is almost impossible to get agreement on any change to the rules. [nL8N1VM5B2]
Sica also said that talks on a free trade deal between the European Union and the Mercosur trade bloc of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay were wrapping up, with an agreement likely by the end of the year.
"We are in the final stages regarding the most delicate aspects of an EU-Mercosur agreement and we are concluding with the political and technical details," Sica said.
🍤
NEW YORK (Project Syndicate) — As we mark the decennial of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are still ongoing debates about the causes and consequences of the financial crisis, and whether the lessons needed to prepare for the next one have been absorbed.
But looking ahead, the more relevant question is what actually will trigger the next global recession and crisis, and when.
The current global expansion will likely continue into next year, given that the U.S. is running large fiscal deficits, China is pursuing loose fiscal and credit policies, and Europe remains on a recovery path. But by 2020, the conditions will be ripe for a financial crisis, followed by a global recession.
There are 10 reasons for this.
First, the fiscal-stimulus policies that are currently pushing the annual U.S. growth rate above its 2% potential are unsustainable. By 2020, the stimulus will run out, and a modest fiscal drag will pull growth from 3% to slightly below 2%.
Second, because the stimulus was poorly timed, the U.S. economy is now overheating, and inflation is rising above target. The U.S. Federal Reserve will thus continue to raise the federal-funds rate from its current 2% to at least 3.5% by 2020, and that will likely push up short- and long-term interest rates as well as the U.S. dollar.
Meanwhile, inflation is also increasing in other key economies, and rising oil prices are contributing additional inflationary pressures. That means the other major central banks will follow the Fed toward monetary-policy normalization, which will reduce global liquidity and put upward pressure on interest rates.
Third, the Trump administration’s trade disputes with China, Europe, Mexico, Canada, and others will almost certainly escalate, leading to slower growth and higher inflation.
Fourth, other U.S. policies will continue to add stagflationary pressure, prompting the Fed to raise interest rates higher still. The administration is restricting inward/outward investment and technology transfers, which will disrupt supply chains. It is restricting the immigrants who are needed to maintain growth as the U.S. population ages. It is discouraging investments in the green economy. And it has no infrastructure policy to address supply-side bottlenecks.
Once a correction occurs, the risk of illiquidity and fire sales/undershooting will become more severe.
Fifth, growth in the rest of the world will likely slow down — more so as other countries will see fit to retaliate against U.S. protectionism. China must slow its growth to deal with overcapacity and excessive leverage; otherwise a hard landing will be triggered. And already-fragile emerging markets will continue to feel the pinch from protectionism and tightening monetary conditions in the U.S.
Sixth, Europe, too, will experience slower growth, owing to monetary-policy tightening and trade frictions. Moreover, populist policies in countries such as Italy may lead to an unsustainable debt dynamic within the eurozone. The still-unresolved “doom loop” between governments and banks holding public debt will amplify the existential problems of an incomplete monetary union with inadequate risk-sharing. Under these conditions, another global downturn could prompt Italy and other countries to exit from the eurozone altogether.
Seventh, U.S. and global equity markets are frothy. Price-to-earnings ratios in the U.S. are 50% above the historic average, private-equity valuations have become excessive, and government bonds are too expensive, given their low yields and negative term premiums. And high-yield credit is also becoming increasingly expensive now that the U.S. corporate-leverage rate has reached historic highs.
Moreover, the leverage in many emerging markets and some advanced economies is clearly excessive. Commercial and residential real estate is far too expensive in many parts of the world. The emerging-market correction in equities, commodities, and fixed-income holdings will continue as global storm clouds gather. And as forward-looking investors start anticipating a growth slowdown in 2020, markets will reprice risky assets by 2019.
Eighth, once a correction occurs, the risk of illiquidity and fire sales/undershooting will become more severe. There are reduced market-making and warehousing activities by broker-dealers. Excessive high-frequency/algorithmic trading will raise the likelihood of “flash crashes.” And fixed-income instruments have become more concentrated in open-ended exchange-traded and dedicated credit funds.
In the case of a risk-off, emerging markets and advanced-economy financial sectors with massive dollar-denominated liabilities will no longer have access to the Fed as a lender of last resort. With inflation rising and policy normalization underway, the backstop that central banks provided during the post-crisis years can no longer be counted on.
Ninth, Trump was already attacking the Fed when the growth rate was recently 4%. Just think about how he will behave in the 2020 election year, when growth likely will have fallen below 1% and job losses emerge. The temptation for Trump to “wag the dog” by manufacturing a foreign-policy crisis will be high, especially if the Democrats retake the House of Representatives this year.
Since Trump has already started a trade war with China and wouldn’t dare attack nuclear-armed North Korea, his last best target would be Iran. By provoking a military confrontation with that country, he would trigger a stagflationary geopolitical shock not unlike the oil-price spikes of 1973, 1979, and 1990. Needless to say, that would make the oncoming global recession even more severe.
Finally, once the perfect storm outlined above occurs, the policy tools for addressing it will be sorely lacking. The space for fiscal stimulus is already limited by massive public debt. The possibility for more unconventional monetary policies will be limited by bloated balance sheets and the lack of headroom to cut policy rates. And financial-sector bailouts will be intolerable in countries with resurgent populist movements and near-insolvent governments.
In the U.S. specifically, lawmakers have constrained the ability of the Fed to provide liquidity to non-bank and foreign financial institutions with dollar-denominated liabilities. And in Europe, the rise of populist parties is making it harder to pursue EU-level reforms and create the institutions necessary to combat the next financial crisis and downturn.
Unlike in 2008, when governments had the policy tools needed to prevent a free fall, the policy makers who must confront the next downturn will have their hands tied while overall debt levels are higher than during the previous crisis. When it comes, the next crisis and recession could be even more severe and prolonged than the last.
Nouriel Roubini is a professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University and co-founder of Rosa & Roubini Associates. Brunello Rosa is co-founder and CEO of Rosa & Roubini Associates and a research associate at the Systemic Risk Center at the London School of Economics. This first was published by Project Syndicate — “The Makings of a 2020 Recession and Financial Crisis.”
🌿
WASHINGTON sindonews - Donald John Trump telah 19 bulan menduduki kursi kepresidenan di Amerika Serikat. Selama kurun waktu tersebut, pemerintahannya begitu banyak dilanda kontroversi. Namun ada satu hal besar yang tidak bisa dipungkiri, Trump berhasil mengangkat ekonomi Amerika Serikat yang melemah selama pemerintahan Obama.
Ketika ia menduduki kantor pemerintahan di awal 2017, sebagian besar pakar mengatakan Trump mustahil untuk meningkatkan perekonomian AS, dimana akhir 2016, pertumbuhan ekonomi Negeri Paman Sam hanya 1,2%. Nyatanya, ekonomi Amerika terus meningkat bahkan mencapai pertumbuhan 4,2% di kuartal II 2018.
Melansir dari CNBC, Sabtu (8/9/2018), tingkat pengangguran mendekati titik terendah dalam 50 tahun. Tingkat pengangguran turun ke level 3,9%, menyamai tingkat terendah sejak 1969. Sementara itu, pasar saham telah melonjak sekitar 27%.
Dan yang terbaru adalah kabar dari Biro Statistik Tenaga Kerja AS pada Jumat kemarin. Pertumbuhan tenaga kerja pada Agustus 2018 mencapai 201.000 orang, melampaui perkiraan ekonom yang disurvei Reuters, sebesar 191.000 tenaga kerja.
Pertumbuhan upah pun mencapai tingkat tertinggi sejak November 2008. Pertumbuhan upah per jam rata-rata naik 2,9%, mengalahkan ekspektasi ekonom yang memperkirakan naik 2,7%. Kenaikan upah merupakan hal yang hilang sejak pemulihan ekomomi tahun 2009.
Meksi membawa kemajuan, tetap saja ada yang nyinyir. Pengkritiknya berasal dari kelompok ekonom pasar bebas, sebagian besar Partai Demokrat AS, bahkan ada juga dari partainya sendiri, Partai Republik. Mereka pun memperkirakan ledakan ekonomi Trump hanya bersifat sementara dan akan mereda setelah pertengahan 2019.
Walau mendapat kritik, sebagian dari mereka mengakui bahwa angka-angka keberhasilan Trump sangat unik dan tidak berutang kepada kebijakan pemerintahan sebelumnya.
"Saya yakin cerita besar dari ledakan ekonomi ini masih berlanjut meski menurut kebanyakan orang mengatakan tidak mungkin," ujar Larry Kudlow, direktur Dewan Ekonomi Nasional dan penasihat utama Trump, dalam wawancara dengan CNBC. "Saya tahu karena Trump paham ekonomi dan dia sudah menjabat satu setengah tahun. Dan ketika kamu melihat angka-angka itu, dia tidak akan mudah puas".
Prestasi ekonomi Trump disebabkan kebijakannya yang pro-bisnis. Sehingga meningkatkan kepercayaan pelakun bisnis berkat peraturan yang bersahabat. Dan ini berdampak terhadap sentimen konsumen, salah satu ukuran untuk mencapai level tertinggi dalam 18 tahun. Trump melakukan pemotongan pajak bagi perusahaan dan perorangan demi mendongkrak daya beli masyarakat.
Berkat pencapaian tersebut, perekonomian Amerika secara total telah tumbuh sebesar USD1,4 triliun pada kuartal II 2018. Sedangkan, periode yang sama semasa Obama, perekonomian hanya USD481 miliar, alias sepertiga dari pencapaian Trump.
🌹
BEIJING Sindonews - Presiden China Xi Jinping menjanjikan dana USD60 miliar (lebih dari Rp890 triliun) untuk membiayai proyek-proyek di negara-negara Afrika dalam bentuk investasi dan pinjaman atau utang. Dia membantah pinjaman itu sebagai perangkap utang untuk menciptakan kolonialisme baru di benua tersebut.
Menurut Xi, pihaknya terus berupaya untuk menghubungkan prospek ekonomi benua Afrika dengan negaranya.
Berbicara pada forum pertemuan para pemimpin Afrika di Beijing pada hari Senin, Xi mengatakan angka tersebut termasuk USD15 miliar dalam bentuk hibah, pinjaman bebas bunga dan pinjaman lunak, USD20 miliar dalam jalur kredit, USD10 miliar untuk "pembiayaan pembangunan" dan USD5 miliar untuk pembelian impor dari Afrika .
Selain itu, dia mengatakan China akan mendorong perusahaannya untuk berinvestasi setidaknya USD10 miliar di Afrika selama tiga tahun ke depan. "Investasi China di benua itu tidak memiliki ikatan politik," kata Xi yang membantah bahwa utang sebesar itu sebagai perangkap untuk menciptakan penjajahan atau kolonialisme baru.
🌴
NEW DELHI, KOMPAS.com - Mengesampingkan dampak dari perang dagang dan jatuhnya nilai mata uang mereka, pertumbuhan ekonomi India jutsru mengalami akselerasi. Dikutip dari CNNMoney, produk domestrik bruto (PDB) India tumbuh pada angka 8,2 persen di kuartal II 2018, berdasarkan data yang dirilis Jumat, (31/8/2018). Angka tersebut meningkat drastis dari kuartal sebelumnya yang sebesar 7,7 persen. Adapun China, sebagai negara dengan perekonomian terbesar di Asia hanya tumbuh sebesar 6,7 persen pada kuartal II yang berakhir di bulan Juni tersebut. Pemerintah India pun menyatakan, kunci dari pesatnya peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi mereka lantaran ekspansi yang terjadi pada sektor manufaktur dan konstruksi. Baca juga: Tak Terdampak Perang Dagang, Pendapatan Alibaba Melonjak 61 Persen "Pertumbuhan PDB India mengalahkan berbagai ekspektasi pada kuartal lalu, dan sepertinya pertumbuhan ini akan terus berlanjut dalam beberapa bulan ke depan," ujar ekonom Capital Economics Shilah Shah, dalam sebuah catatan tertulis. Namun, di tengah pesatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi tersebut, inflasi India juga meningkat cepat, membuat bank sentral setempat harus meningkatkan suku bunga sebanyak dua kali dalam waktu 3 bulan. Selain itu, mata uang mereka, rupee, juga mencetak rekor depresiasi terbesar pada hari Jumat. Lemahnya mata uang membuat harga beberapa barang impor menjadi lebih mahal. Analis menyatakan, pertumbuhan PDB tersebut bisa jadi merupakan puncak, jika pertumbuhan ekonomi mulai mengalami perlambatan akibat perang dagang antara Amerika Serikat dan China. Meningkatnya harga minyak juga bisa menjadi rem bagi India yang merupakan importir terbesar produk energi tersebut. "Outlook dari sisa tahun ini tidak begitu optimis, meningkatnya harga minyak serta perang dagang menahan outlook ke depan," ujar pimpinan cabang India dari Oxoford Economics Priyanka Kishore. Reformasi ekonomi nampaknya tidak lagi mungkin terjadi, sebab Perdana Menteri Narendra Modi akan mengikuti pemilihan umum di tahun 2019 mendatang. Reformasi pajak yang terjadi di tahun lalu dilihat memiliki dampak positif jangka panjang bagi ekonomi India, namun reformasi pada pertanahan serta tenaga kerja sebenarnya dinilai memiliki dampak yang lebih besar.
KONTAN.CO.ID - NEW YORK. Manajer reksadana berbasis di AS yang khawatir terhadap prospek pendapatan bank telah memangkas porsi saham keuangan dari portofolio mereka, meskipun beberapa manajer dan analis portofolio berorientasi nilai mengatakan masih melihat peluang menarik di sektor ini.
Reksadana berbasis AS rata-rata mengurangi porsi sahamnya di perusahaan keuangan hampir sedalam 1,1 poin persentase pada kuartal kedua menjadi sekitar 14%. Menurut Reuters, ini merupakan penurunan satu kuartal terbesar sejak setidaknya 2013, menurut Goldman Sachs.
Peralihan porsi saham bank, perusahaan asuransi, dan pemberi pinjaman hipotek mereka lakukan karena sektor keuangan memiliki kinerja buruk pada indeks S&P 500. Sektor keunagan turun lebih dari 5% sejak April. Banyak manajer investasi percaya bahwa bank telah melewati pendapatan puncak.
Sementara itu, imbal hasil surat utang pmerintah Amerika Serikat (Treasury AS) sedang meruncing. Imbal hasil tenor jangka pendek meningkat dalam mengantisipasi kenaikan suku bunga AS dari Federal Reserve, sementara imbal hasil jangka panjang jatuh oleh kekhawatiran tentang pertumbuhan ekonomi dan ketegangan perdagangan. Situasi ini umumnya akan meremas laba bank.
Beberapa investor khawatir imbal hasil jangka panjang mungkin akan menurun di bawah imbal hasil jangka pendek yang berarti menandakan kedatangan resesi.
"Semakin datar kurva imbal hasil semakin sulit untuk menghasilkan uang," kata Ian McDonald, Partner Kepala Tim Riset keuangan di Janus Henderson Investors, yang mengawasi US$ 370,1 miliar dalam aset yang dikelola.
Selisih antara imbal hasil Treasury AS tenor dua tahun dan tenor 10 tahun diperdagangkan sekitar rata-rata 11 tahun. Kenaikan suku bunga jangka pendek meningkatkan biaya pinjaman bank, sementara penurunan suku bunga jangka panjang membatasi berapa banyak yang dapat mereka kenakan untuk pinjaman.
Namun McDonald mengatakan bank-bank berkapitalisasi besar seperti JPMorgan Chase dan Co, Bank of America Corp, dan Citigroup Inc tetap menarik meskipun keseluruhan sektor tidak. Bank-bank besar telah berinvestasi dalam platform online dan aplikasi seluler, membuat mereka lebih menarik bagi generasi millennial dan kurang bergantung pada cabang yang mahal, katanya.
"Industri perbankan ritel AS bergerak dari fase pasca-krisis manajemen risiko ke fase fintech dalam mengelola pengalaman pelanggan," katanya.
Ben Kirby, manajer portofolio US$ 15,4 miliar dana Pendanaan Pengembangan Pendanaan Thornburg, mengatakan bahwa dananya telah bergerak lebih banyak ke bank-bank Eropa seperti ING Groep NV, didorong sebagian oleh penjualan baru-baru ini menyusul penurunan tajam dari lira Turki.
Kyle Martin, seorang analis di Westwood Holdings Group, sebuah perusahaan Dallas yang mengelola dana US$ 21,6 miliar, mengatakan bahwa naiknya suku bunga dan kurva imbal hasil merata bisa menunjukkan resesi pada 2020, yang berarti saham keuangan kurang menarik.
Sumber : Reuters
🌹
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S.-based mutual fund managers worried about the outlook for bank earnings have been trimming financial stocks from their portfolios, although some value-oriented portfolio managers and analysts said they still see attractive opportunities in the sector. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., August 31, 2018. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid The average U.S. based mutual fund reduced its stake in financial companies by nearly 1.1 percentage points in the second quarter to approximately 14 percent, the largest one-quarter decline since at least 2013, according to Goldman Sachs. The move away from banks, insurance companies, and mortgage lenders came as the financial sector has underperformed the broad S&P 500 benchmark index by more than 5 percent since April. Many fund managers believe banks have already hit peak earnings. One red flag is that the U.S. Treasury yield curve has been flattening as short-term yields rise in anticipation of U.S. interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve while long-term yields fall on worries about economic growth and trade tensions. This situation generally squeezes bank profits. Some investors worry long-term yields might eventually dip below short-term yields. Such a yield curve inversion that can signal a looming recession. “The flatter the yield curve the harder it is to make money,” said Ian McDonald, co-leader of the financials research team at Janus Henderson Investors, which oversees $370.1 billion in assets under management, adding that “funds are looking around and saying that if we’re going to see weaker growth then we need to get out of financials.” The spread between the yield of two- and 10-year U.S. Treasuries US2US10=RR is trading around its flattest in 11 years. Rising short-term rates raise a bank’s borrowing costs, while falling long-term rates limit how much they can charge for loans. Yet McDonald said large-cap banks like JPMorgan Chase and Co (JPM.N), Bank of America Corp (BAC.N), and Citigroup Inc (C.N) remain attractive even if the sector overall does not. The major banks have been investing in online platforms and mobile apps, making them more appealing to millennials and less dependent on costly branches, he noted. “The U.S. retail banking industry is moving from the post-crisis phase of risk management to the fintech phase of managing customer experience,” he said. Ben Kirby, portfolio manager of the $15.4 billion Thornburg Investment Income Builder fund, said his fund has been moving more into European banks such as ING Groep NV (INGA.AS), prompted in part by a recent sell-off in shares following the steep decline of the Turkish lira. The Turkish currency has plunged more than 40 percent this year due to increasing tensions with the United States and concerns that the country’s central bank is losing its independence under President Tayyip Erdogan. “The U.S. has been the market darling for the last 10 years, and that’s led to valuations that are a bit more stretched and an economic cycle that is a bit more mature,” Kirby said. “Whereas in Europe it’s earlier in the cycle and growth is accelerating more.” Overall, companies in the S&P 500 financial sector trade at a trailing price to earnings ratio of 14.5 and are up 2.2 percent for the year to date, according to Thomson Reuters data. The broad S&P 500, by comparison, trades at a trailing P/E of 22.06 and is up nearly 9 percent over the same time. Investors have retreated from financials as well, with the Financial Sector Select SPDR, an ETF that tracks financial stocks in the S&P 500, losing $1.7 billion in outflows over the last 4 weeks, according to Lipper data. Though banks have stronger balance sheets than at the start of the financial crisis 10 years ago, “we’re having a hard time finding anything to get excited about in financials,” said Tom Plumb, manager of the $29.7 million Plumb Equity Fund.
Instead of banks, Plumb has his largest positions in credit-card and payment companies Visa Inc (V.N) and Mastercard Inc (MA.N), continue to grow as more retail purchases are made online rather than in physical stores, he said. “It’s a mistake to get off a big macro secular trend too early,” he said. Kyle Martin, an analyst at Westwood Holdings Group, a Dallas firm with $21.6 billion in assets under management, said that rising interest rates and the flattening yield curve could point to a recession in 2020, meaning financial stocks are less attractive. Investment bank Houlihan Lokey Inc (HLI.N) looks attractive despite the prospect of declining economic growth given its focus on middle-market mergers and acquisitions, which should see above-average deal activity as the threat from technology disruption grows, he said. “Banks are clearly safer than they were 10 years ago,” he said. “At the same time, they will see a decline in earnings soon and it’s easy for a fund manager to not have those listed on a client statement if we go into another crisis.” Reporting by David Randall; Editing by David Gregorio
🌲
bloomberg: Emerging-market assets are headed for a monthly loss as declines in Argentina and Turkey sparked fears of global contagion and amid a renewed intensification of U.S.-China trade tensions. The MSCI EM index of currencies was down 2.2 percent for August as of 1:33 p.m. in London, poised for a fifth monthly loss, the longest stretch since September 2015. South Africa’s rand headed for its worst August on record, while the lira rebounded on Friday after Turkey raised taxes on dollar deposits. In Asia, the Indonesian rupiah slid to its lowest since 1998, while the Indian rupee was set for its biggest monthly drop in three years and a fresh record low. Plenty of investors -- including BlackRock Inc. and Pacific Investment Management Co. -- have viewed emerging-market declines as an opportunity to stock up on securities likely to benefit from growth rates set to outpace those of the rich world in the long run. But that’s not panned out this month, with developed-nation equities comparing favorably thanks in part to solid corporate earnings. The emerging asset class’s latest woes came from Argentina, where the peso tumbled to a record low, prompting policy makers to boost a benchmark interest rate to 60 percent. In Turkey, a report that the central bank’s deputy governor was set to resign sank the lira. Also hurting sentiment: President Donald Trump was said to move ahead with a plan to impose new tariffs on China as soon as next week. Contagion Worries “Argentina’s problems will probably keep investors’ focus on emerging markets with weaker fundamentals, leading to sell-offs in those countries like we’ve seen in Turkey,” said Koji Fukaya, chief executive officer at FPG Securities Co. in Tokyo. “Argentine assets are unlikely to see a turnaround soon with just the IMF support because there hasn’t been any fundamental improvements in the country.” The latest currency crisis in Argentina adds to existing headwinds for emerging markets including the end of an era of cheap money, prospects of a global trade war, American sanctions and deep political uncertainties in places such as Brazil. The rupiah fell to 14,750 per dollar, the weakest level since the 1998 Asian financial crisis, while the Indian currency slid past an unprecedented 71 against the dollar.
Asia needs to “guard against complacency” especially for those with deficits in their fiscal and current-account balances, strategists including Philip Wee at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. wrote in a note. “With heightened trade tensions threatening to erupt into a full-blown trade war, the region is on alert for disorderly capital outflows.”
South Africa’s rand was little changed, heading for a monthly drop of almost 10 percent. Turkey’s lira snapped four days of losses after the government raised taxes on dollar deposits of up to a year and scrapped a 10 percent tax on lira accounts with maturities longer than a year.
It’s not just the currencies that have been battered this month among developing economies. An index tracking their equities has lost over 3 percent, while the Bloomberg Barclays index of EM local-currency government notes is down more than 2 percent.
Some analysts say Asia still remains a relative haven given that region’s stronger economic fundamentals.
“At the end of the day, the correlations are not that pronounced and it’s not a monkey see, monkey do kind of reaction for EM Asian currencies,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore.
Argentina’s peso has dropped 29 percent against the dollar this month, the worst performer among major emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Turkey’s currency follows closely, with a 25 percent slide. The Thai baht and South Korean won are at the top of the pack, heading for gains of 1.7 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.
🌹
KONTAN.CO.ID - JACKSON HOLE. Ketua The Federal Reserve Jerome Powell angkat bicara soal arah suku bunga The Fed ke depan. Berbicara dalam konferensi tahunan gubernur bank sentral di Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell mengisyaratkan The Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga secara bertahap jika ekspansi ekonomi Amerika Serikat (AS) tetap kuat.
Menurut Powell, kenaikan suku bunga yang stabil adalah cara terbaik untuk melindungi pemulihan ekonomi AS dan menjaga pertumbuhan pekerjaan sekuat mungkin dan inflasi terkendali.
Berbicara hanya beberapa hari setelah Presiden AS Donald Trump mengkritik kenaikan suku bunga bank sentral AS, Powell menggunakan ajang tersebut untuk menjelaskan mengapa The Fed yakin bahwa kenaikan bunga secara bertahap tetap sesuai.
“Ekonomi AS kuat. Inflasi mendekati target 2% dan kebanyakan orang yang menginginkan pekerjaan. Jika pertumbuhan yang kuat dalam pendapatan dan pekerjaan terus berlanjut, peningkatan bertahap The Fed Fund Rate akan tetap sesuai," demikian pidato Powell seperti dilansir Reuters.
Komentar Powell bukanlah tanggapan langsung terhadap kritik Trump. Trump terang-terangan menyatakan tidak senang dengan kenaikan suku bunga the Fed karena dia tengah mencoba untuk merangsang pertumbuhan ekonomi AS.
The Fed diperkirakan akan menaikkan suku bunga lagi pada bulan September 2018. Dan mungkin akan naik sekali lagi pada bulan Desember 2018. The Fed juga diyakini akan melanjutkan apa normalisasi kebijakan pada tahun 2019 mendatang.
Mark Grant, Managing Director and Chief Global Strategits B Riley FBR menilai, secara keseluruhan pidato Powell positif untuk ekonomi dan pasar. "Powell membuat sudut pandangnya cukup jelas bahwa kenaikan suku bunga secara bertahap kemungkinan akan datang jika ekonomi AS tetap kuat," kata Grant seperti dikutip Reuters.
Menurutnya, Powell mengambil sikap yang jelas dan sesuai harapan. Powell berada di tengah-tengah para pembuat kebijakan The Fed dan tidak terpengaruh oleh komentar-komentar Presiden Trump.
“Presiden Trump, atau anggota Kongres atau Senator manapun, memiliki hak untuk berkomentar. Tetapi The Fed adalah badan independen dalam pemerintahan Amerika dan para anggotanya memiliki hak untuk membuat keputusan sendiri," imbuhnya.
🌳
KONTAN.CO.ID - BENGALURU. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Amerika Serikat (AS) akan melambat selama kuartal-kuartal mendatang setelah menyentuh tertinggi dalam empat tahun terakhir pada periode April-Juni 2018 lalu. Hasil jajak pendapat ekonom yang dilakukan Reuters menyebutkan, perang dagang yang dikobarkan Presiden Donald Trump akan menimbulkan gangguan bagi ekonomi AS.
Didorong efek paket pemotongan pajak senilai hingga US$ 1,5 triliun yang disahkan akhir tahun lalu, ekonomi AS tumbuh 4,1% pada kuartal II 2018 lalu. Ini kinerja terkuat dalam hampir empat tahun terakhir.
Tapi jajak pendapat terbaru dari lebih dari 100 ekonom yang dilakukan pada 13-21 Agustus 2018 menunjukkan, ekonomi AS akan kehilangan momentum dalam kuartal mendatang dan juga pada akhir tahun depan. Pada kuartal saat ini atau kuartal III 2018, ekonomi AS diperkirakan tumbuh 3%, kemudian akan tumbuh 2,7% di tahun 2019.
Dorongan jangka pendek pertumbuhan ekonomi dari kebijakan pemotongan pajak di AS diperkirakan mulai berkurang. Para ekonom memangkas proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi di sebagian besar kuartal pada tahun depan lantaran ekonomi AS rentan terhadap konflik perdagangan dengan China.
Philip Marey, ahli strategi di Rabobank mengatakan, langkah-langkah perdagangan yang diambil oleh AS sejauh ini dan pembalasan oleh pemerintah negara lain mungkin akan memperlambat sedikit pertumbuhan ekonomi.
"Namun, itu bisa berubah dalam kasus perang perdagangan global dimana berbagai negara asing mengambil langkah-langkah proteksionis yang ditujukan ke AS," kata Marey.
Hampir dua pertiga dari 56 ekonom mengatakan mereka telah mempertimbangkan dampak dari perang perdagangan yang meluas dalam prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi AS.
Sebanyak 20 ekonom menyatakan, untuk saat ini sengketa perdagangan tidak memiliki pengaruh pada perkiraan mereka soal ekonomi AS. Namun, mereka menggarisbawahi bahwa risiko downside ke prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi AS jika ketegangan perdagangan semakin dalam.
“Pada saat ini, dengan apa yang kita tahu dan yakini, risiko terhadap prospek ekonomi AS adalah sisi negatif dari perselisihan perdagangan. Meskipun demikian, kami belum secara substansial menurunkan prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi AS. Efek lebih lanjut tentu bisa mengubah pandangan kami,“kata Sam Bullard, ekonom senior Wells Fargo.
Soal pendapat Trump yang mengatakan bahwa kenaikan tarif perdagangan ini akan menguntungkan perekonomian AS, tidak ada ekonom yang disurvei oleh Reuters yang sependapat dengan pandangan itu.
Semua tarif yang dikenakan dan tindakan pembalasan sampai sekarang sebagian besar terbatas pada mesin industri China, komponen elektronik dan barang setengah jadi lain. Dan itu hanya memiliki dampak terbatas pada perekonomian AS.
Namun, pemberlakukan tarif berikutnya yang direncanakan pada akhir September 2018 ditujukan untuk produk-produk konsumen dan kemungkinan akan berdampak negatif pada ekonomi secara keseluruhan karena belanja konsumen berkontribusi lebih dari dua pertiga produk domestik bruto (PDB) AS.
Meski akan melambat, namun kemungkinan ekonomi AS akan masuk resesi sangat kecil. Dari jajak pendapat tersebut, hanya satu dari 100 ekonom yang disurvei memprediksikan resesi ekonomi AS pada tahun 2020.
Meskipun ada risiko yang berasal dari perang dagang, Bank Sentral AS atau The Federal Reseeve diperkirakan akan menaikkan suku bunga sebesar 25 basis poin pada bulan September 2018 dan sekali lagi pada bulan Desember 2018, sehingga mengambil tingkat suku bunga akan menjadi 2,25%-2,50% pada akhir 2018.
Untuk tahun depan, ekonom memperkirakan The Fed akan mengerek dua kali kenaikan suku bunga. "Impuls yang memudar dari kebijakan fiskal dan dampak dari ketidakpastian perdagangan adalah cerita di tahun 2019. Sementara The Fed akan fokus pada bagaimana melacak hari ini dan bagaimana kondisi keuangan berkembang sekarang," tulis ekonom Morgan Stanley.
🌷
KONTAN.CO.ID - JAKARTA. Sempat menguat, nilai tukar dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) melemah pada pertengahan pekan ini. Rabu (22/8) pukul 20.25 WIB, indeks dollar turun 0,30% ke 94,97. Indeks dollar turun dalam enam hari berturut-turut.
Padahal, indeks yang mencerminkan nilai tukar dollar AS terhadap mata uang utama dunia ini sempat menguat ke 95,38. Nilai tukar dollar AS melemah setelah Presiden AS Donald Trump mengatakan tidak senang dengan kenaikan suku bunga Federal Reserve.
"Tampaknya, Trump berniat menjaga dollar AS lebih lemah agar tetap kompetitif," kata David Madden, chief market analyst CMC Markets kepada Reuters. Jika dollar terlalu kuat, maka barang-barang AS akan lebih mahal di pasar internasional.
Berkebalikan dengan dollar, harga emas cenderung naik. Harga emas menguat ke US$ 1.204,90 per ons troi. Harga minyak ini naik dalam empat hari perdagangan berturut-turut dari level terendah 2018 yang tercapai Kamis pekan lalu.
Pernyataan bersalah atas dua mantan penasihat Trump turun menyebabkan mata uang the greenback makin tertekan.
🌹
ID: Ada kekhawatiran yang meluas bahwa proteksionisme yang diusung Presiden Amerika Serikat (AS) Donald Trump akan menggerus manfaat jangka panjang perdagangan global. Juga berkembang harapan di seputar pendukung Trump, termasuk banyak perusahaan AS, bahwa kebijakan yang keras terhadap Tiongkok akan dapat meredam Negeri Tirai Bambu itu mencapai kemajuan teknologi setara dengan AS. Mungkinkah?
Kekhawatiran bahwa dampak jangka panjang dari proteksionisme AS terhadap penurunan kinerja perdagangan global adalah lebih besar muatan hiperbolisnya. Apalagi, harapan untuk membendung kemajuan Tiongkok kemungkinan tercapai sangat kecil.
Ingat, Winston Churcill, tokoh politik dan pengarang dari Inggris yang paling dikenal sebagai Perdana Menteri Britania Raya sewaktu Perang Dunia Kedua, pernah bilang, “biarkan raksasa (Tiongkok) itu lelap tertidur.” Dan faktanya, raksasa itu kini telah bangkit dan mengaum, siap mengangkat perekonomian global menuju dunia yang semakin sejahtera, yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya.
Ingat pula, perdagangan terjadi karena tiga alasan. Pertama, adanya perbedaan kepemilikan sumber daya yang berbeda antarnegara. Beberapa negara memiliki minyak, sedangkan negara lainnya memiliki tembaga, dan negara lainnya lagi menanam padi serta gandum. Kalau perdagangan komoditas tersebut terhenti, maka kesejahteraan global dipastikan akan menurun. Tetapi perdagangan komoditas dan hasil pertanian pangsanya hanya minor dalam perdagangan global, dan akan berlanjut segitu-gitu saja.
Kedua, perdagangan internasional merefleksikan perbedaan biaya tenaga kerja. Negara-negara dengan upah tenaga kerja murah akan memproduksi barang-barang manufaktur dengan intensitas pemakaian tenaga kerja relatif paling dominan, dan menggunakan mesin yang diimpor dari negara dengan upah tenaga kerja mahal.
Dampaknya terhadap negara maju, menurut ekonom Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) David Autor, adalah buruk bagi pekerja negara maju tetapi sangat menguntungkan bagi perusahaan atau pemilik modal di negara maju. Tetapi bagi negara berkembang, hal itu sangat menguntungkan karena adanya peningkatan investasi asing, penguatan kewirausahaan lokal dan pemupukan devisa yang dapat dipakai untuk investasi dalam infrastruktur maupun keahlian bagi sumber daya manusia (SDM)-nya.
Sukses ekonomi Tiongkok yang dramatis seperti sekarang ini akan mustahil tanpa adanya perdagangan internasional yang didorong oleh perbedaan upah buruh yang signifikan. Akan tetapi, di masa mendatang jenis perdagangan internasional seperti ini akan semakin kurang penting. Dengan upah tenaga kerja di Tiongkok yang naik sangat cepat, keuntungan investasi yang berpedoman pada biaya buruh murah di Tiongkok dengan cepat akan mengalami penurunan.
Banyak orang memperkirakan bahwa akan terjadi perpindahan proses manufaktur ke tempat yang berbiaya buruh lebih murah, misal ke Afrika, namun sebagian besar akan kembali ke negara maju yang menggunakan proses produksi otomasi sehingga hanya tercipta sedikit lapangan kerja.
Alasan terakhir adalah spesialisasi, skala ekonomi dalam produksi, penelitian dan pengembangan, serta merek dagang yang menggerakkan perdagangan antarnegara kaya. Mobil mewah Eropa diekspor ke AS, lalu sebaliknya motor Harley-Davidson diimpor oleh Eropa. Begitu pula dengan perkakas mesin yang spesifik diperdagangkan antarnegara maju. Begitu jaringan perdagangan seperti ini terkoneksi, maka perubahan mendadak terhadap tarif akan sangat mengganggu perdagangan lintas batas antarnegara.
Karena itu, langkah Donald Trump dalam perang dagang ini tidak diragukan lagi akan mereduksi pertumbuhan ekonomi global jangka pendek. Tetapi dalam jangka panjang perdagangan jenis ini akan tetap berlangsung menuju keseimbangan baru.
Permasalahan utamanya adalah seberapa besar ukuran ekonomi minimal yang dibutuhkan agar mampu meningkatkan skala ekonomi dengan rantai produksi yang terintegrasi namun mampu menjaga kompetisi antarperusahaan sehingga secara keseluruhan ekonomi sangat efisien? Kalau negara sekecil Irlandia dengan penduduk hanya 5 juta mencoba untuk memproduksi barang dan jasa sendiri, maka pendapatan mereka saat ini akan jauh lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan adanya perdagangan dengan negara lain.
Bahkan misal Inggris, Perancis, Jerman mencoba strategi ekonomi yang sama dengan spirit Robinson Crusoe, maka tingkat produktivitas dan standar hidupnya akan jauh dari pencapaian saat ini. Akan tetapi, bagi ekonomi Tiongkok dengan penduduk 1,4 miliar, dapat mencapai standar ekonomi dengan skala ekonomi yang tinggi dan tetap terjadi kompetisi internal yang efisien.
Pada prinsipnya, India juga bisa. AS dengan penduduk lebih dari 300 juta akan sedikit merugi kalau perdagangan lintas batasnya hanya sedikit, begitu pula dengan Uni Eropa dengan pasar tunggalnya yang mencapai 520 juta manusia. Pada titik tertentu, manfaat potensial dari peningkatan perdagangan antarnegara kaya akan semakin mengecil. Seandainya terjadi pengurangan perdagangan antara Tiongkok, AS dan Uni Eropa pada tahun 2050 dibandingkan saat ini, maka dampak langsung terhadap standar hidup mereka sangat kecil.
Apa yang akan hilang tanpa adanya perdagangan global yang disertai dengan investasi kapital adalah transfer pengetahuan, teknologi dan praktik bisnis yang berkelas internasional. Lepas landas perekonomian Tiongkok diawali dengan arbitrase biaya buruh dan disangga oleh transfer pengetahuan secara masif.
Walaupun sebagian transfer tersebut dilakukan dengan cara espionage industri, tetapi secara keseluruhan berlangsung secara otomatis, legal dan tak terbendung. Pekerja Tiongkok dan mandornya yang diperkerjakan oleh perusahaan maju belajar teknik baru. Para pemasok harus memenuhi standar yang tinggi dan pengusaha lokal akan belajar meningkatkan kualitas produksi agar mampu bersaing dalam rantai produksi.
Perusahaan patungan harus melakukan transfer pengetahuan pada mitra lokalnya. Perusahaan dari negara maju bersedia melakukan semua itu dengan tujuan mendapatkan akses ke pasar Tiongkok yang sangat besar. Sekarang AS sangat khawatir akan perkembangan kemampuan teknologi Tiongkok. Para pengusaha AS menyesal telah kehilangan keunggulan yang diperoleh karena superior dalam teknologi dan hak cipta intelektual.
Para politisi Republikan sangat khawatir akan konsekuensi geopolitik potensial karena kemajuan teknologi Tiongkok. Kebijakan tarif dan akuisisi teknologi perusahaan AS oleh Tiongkok saat ini adalah sebagai tanggapan atas keprihatinan tersebut. Namun, sudah terlambat.
Seandainya pada tahun 1990-an AS membendung perusahaannya untuk membuka ekonomi Tiongkok, maka kebangkitan Tiongkok secara signifikan akan terhambat, tetapi tidak dapat dicegah secara permanen. Karena telah terjadi, maka kebangkitan Tiongkok sebagai ‘raksasa’ baru sudah dengan sendirinya akan berlanjut. Raksasa itu tak akan surut, sudah terlanjur kuat. Dengan kondisi pasar domestik Tiongkok yang meraksasa dan penduduknya yang semakin kaya, maka sudah tidak begitu vital peran ekspor bagi pertumbuhan ekonominya.
Meningkatnya upah yang cepat akan memberi insentif bagi pengusaha Tiongkok untuk mengganti dengan robot. Perusahaan Tiongkok telah memiliki keunggulan dalam penajaman dan penemuan dalam artificial intelligence, kendaraan listrik dan energi terbarukan. Baru saja Tesla Inc, --sebuah perusahaan otomotif dan penyimpanan energi asal Amerika Serikat--, membuka pabrik otomotif listriknya di Shanghai dan yang pertama di luar AS.
Progam Presiden RRT Xi Jinping: “Made in China 2025” akan mempercepat peningkatan proses produksi Tiongkok melalui R&D Tiongkok sendiri. Bahkan kalau AS sekarang menutup perdagangan dan investasi Tiongkok, dampaknya sangat kecil pada kekuatan dan kebangkitan ekonomi dan politik Negeri Tirai Bambu itu. Yang jelas masa depan global ada di tangan Tiongkok.
Fenomena ini tidak berlaku bagi negara berkembang lainnya seperti India dan Afrika yang berharap mengikuti langkah kebangkitan ekonomi Tiongkok yang sangat cepat. Negara-negara ini telah menghadapi ancaman otomasi industri dari negara maju sehingga terciptanya pekerjaan dari pabrik yang menghasilkan ekspor akan semakin melemah. Karena itu, di tengah-tengah perang dagang Trump dewasa ini, negara-negara berkembang lainnya harus memulai memikirkan strategi pembangunan ekonomi yang baru agar tidak semakin menderita akibat dari restriksi perdagangan global. Dan ingat, perang ini akan berlangsung cukup lama. (*)
Tri Winarno, Pemerhati Ekonomi Global
🍊
ID: Adapun pemerintah Tiongkok belum lama ini mengingatkan, dampak terhadap perekonomian global juga bakal meluas jika perselisihan dagangnya dengan AS berlanjut.
"Proteksi perdagangan dunia terus memanas. Hal ini menimbulkan tantangan besar bagi pemulihan ekonomi dunia. Juga menambah tantangan dan ketidakpastian bagi kami," ujar Mao.
Ia menjelaskan bahwa dari sisi domestik, pembangunan ekonomi Tiongkok masih tidak seimbang dan tidak stabil. Selain itu, Tiongkok masih dalam proses penyesuaian struktural dan transformasi.
Mao menambahkan, untuk saat ini dampak perang dagang dengan AS belum sepenuhnya dirasakan. Pemerintah Tiongkok akan terus mencermatinya sepanjang paruh kedua 2018.
Ia mengatakan bahwa perang dagang akan berdampak pada ekonomi Tiongkok maupun AS. Karena sekarang ekonomi dunia sangat terintegrasi. Rantai industri mengglobal sehingga banyak negara terkait juga akan terpengaruh.
Pemerintah Tiongkok sudah menyiapkan langkah-langkah untuk memacu lagi pertumbuhan ekonomi. Padahal sebelumnya perlambatan dimaklumi, lantaran Tiongkok sedang bertransisi menuju pembangunan ekonomi yang lebih berkelanjutan, dari pertumbuhan berbasis ekspor dan investasi menjadi lebih mengandalkan konsumsi domestik.
Komisi Pembangunan dan Stabilitas Finansial (Financial Stability and Development Commission/ FSDC) Dewan Negara Tiongkok menyatakan, negaranya harus menyeimbangkan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi yang solid dan pencegahan risiko. Sebab, ketidakpastian-ketidakpastian eksternal datang bertubi-tubi.
Komisi yang diketuai Wakil Perdana Menteri Liu He itu menambahkan, bobot perhatian akan lebih dicurahkan pada bagaimana kebijakan moneter dapat berjalan. Juga dukungannya terhadap sektor riil dalam perekonomian.
Saat ini berkembang kekhawatiran bahwa perlambatan ekonomi Tiongkok bakal semakin besar. Setidaknya ada tiga faktor penyebab.
Pertama, eskalasi perang dagang dengan AS. Kedua, meningkatnya kasus-kasus kebangkrutan korporasi. Ketiga, penurunan tajam nilai tukar yuan terhadap dolar AS.
Otoritas Tiongkok pada akhir perdagangan pekan lalu mencoba untuk meredam pelemahan yuan, setelah serangkaian penurunan membuat nilainya mendekati level psikologis US$ 7.
Neraca transaksi berjalan Tiongkok kembali surplus pada kuartal kedua, setelah defisit dalam tiga bulan pertama tahun ini. (afp/sumber-sumber lain/leo/pya)
🌹
WASHINGTON sindonews - Presiden Amerika Serikat (AS) Donald Trump menyatakan bahwa strategi mengenakan tarif tinggi bagi barang impor dari China bekerja lebih baik daripada yang diperkirakan. Berkat strategi tersebut, kata dia, Beijing kini bersedia berbicara dengan AS mengenai permasalahan perdagangan di antara kedua negara.
"Tarif bekerja lebih baik daripada yang diperkirakan siapa pun," cuitnya di Twitter seperti dikutip Reuters, Minggu (5/8/2018). Trump juga mengatakan bahwa bursa China anjlok seperti yang telah ia perkirakan dan sebaliknya, bursa AS bisa naik secara dramatis ketika AS-China akhirnya mencapai kesepakatan dagang.
Sementara itu, media milik Pemerintah China sehari sebelumnya menyebutkan bahwa aksi balasan China dengan menerapkan tarif atas barang-barang asal AS yang "hanya" senilai USD60 miliar menunjukkan tekad China untuk menahan diri dan bersikap rasional. Di bagian lain, media China juga menuding AS dengan kebijakan tarifnya telah melakukan pemerasan.
Jumat (3/8) lalu menteri keuangan China membeberkan tarif tambahan berkisar 5-25% atas 5.207 barang impor asal AS. Nilai barang yang dikenai tarif itu tak mencapai separuh dari barang impor tambahan asal China senilai USD200 miliar yang diusulkan dikenai tarif 25% oleh pemerintahan Trump.
"Aksi balasan China sangat rasional. China tidak terburu-buru menyaingi angka (barang yang kena tarif) dari AS," tulis Global Times, tabloid yang dikelola oleh People’s Daily.
Tercatat, Juli lalu AS dan China mengimplementasikan tarif atas barang-barang impor senilai USD34 miliar dari masing-masing negara. Namun, pemerintahan Trump terus mendesak dengan mengusulkan tambahan tarif atas barang-barang impor asal China.
Menanggapi langkah itu, media China menyebutkan bahwa dengan begitu, tekanan dan aksi pemerasan yang dilakukan Gedung Putih kini menjadi jelas bagi komunitas internasional. "Namun, metode pemerasan esktrem seperti itu tidak akan pernah berhasil terhadap China," tandasnya.
🐙
KONTAN.CO.ID - WASHINGTON. Setelah menggelar rapat selama dua hari (31 Juli -1 Agustus 2018), Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) bank sentral Amerika Serikat (AS) memutuskan untuk mempertahankan kisaran target bunga dana federal tetap di 1,75% hingga 2%.
KONTAN.CO.ID - JOHANNESBURG. Perang dagang yang ditabuh Presiden Amerika Serikat (AS) mendapat perlawanan sengit. Isu ini pula yang menjadi fokus pembicaraan Konferensi Tingkat Tinggi (KTT) ke-10 negara BRICS yang dibuka 25 Juli di Johannesburg, Afrika Selatan.
Negara BRICS beranggotakan Brasil, Rusia, India, China dan Afrika Selatan. Ancaman proteksi perdagangan Trump telah memberi dorongan baru bagi negara BRICS untuk meningkatkan kerjasama perdagangan.
Selama tiga hari pertemuan tersebut diharapkan menemukan suara kolektif untuk memperjuangkan perdagangan global. Pertemuan para pemimpin BRICS ini merupakan kali pertama, sejak Presiden AS Donald Trump melontarkan kebijakan untuk menyeimbangkan perdagangan multilateral yang dianggap tidak adil bagi AS.
Dalam KTT tersebut, Presiden China Xi Jinping mengatakan, perang dagang global harus ditolak karena tidak akan ada pemenang. Ia menyerukan kepada negara-negara BRICS menolak tindakan sepihak AS yang mengancam akan menetapkan tarif impor tinggi ke negara lain.
"Kita harus tegas dalam menolak unilateralisme," kata Xi pada upacara pembukaan pertemuan para pemimpin negara BRICS seperti dikutip Reuters. Menurutnya, proteksionisme perdagangan yang semakin memuncak, menimbulkan pukulan keras bagi perdagangan multilateral.
Sementara, Menteri Perdagangan Afrika Selatan Rob Davies mengatakan sistem perdagangan internasional saat ini mengalami periode gejolak besar. Perdagangan internasional dihantui kekhawatiran tentang kebijakan tarif impor AS dan tindakan balasan dari negara lain. "Ini adalah momen krisis untuk sistem perdagangan multilateral global," kata Davies.
Pengaruh negara BRICS ini tak bisa disepelekan. Kelompok BRICS mewakili lebih dari 40% populasi dunia.
🌹
KONTAN.CO.ID - BEIJING. Tensi hubungan dagang dengan Amerika Serikat (AS) makin mendidih, China mulai ancang-ancang mengamankan perekonomiannya. China meluncurkan paket kebijakan yang ditargetkan untuk meningkatkan permintaan domestik.
Paket kebijakan ini dirilis karena ketegangan hubungan perdagangan dikhawatirkan bisa memperburuk perlambatan ekonomi China. Ekonomi China tumbuh 6,7% di kuartal II 2018, ekspansi paling lambat sejak 2016. Tahun ini, pertumbuhan ekonomi China diprediksi hanya sebesar 6,5%. Proyeksi tersebut masih inline dengan target Pemerintah China.
Langkah-langkah yang diumumkan Senin malam (23/7), usai pertemuan Dewan Negara China di Beijing itu dimaksudkan sebagai bentuk respons yang lebih fleksibel untuk mengantisipasi ketidakpastian eksternal. Paket kebijakan yang diumumkan itu antara lain berisi pemotongan pajak yang bertujuan untuk mendorong belanja riset dan pengembangan perusahaan, dukungan untuk perusahaan kecil, dan penerbitan obligasi untuk investasi infrastruktur.
Seperti dikutip Bloomberg, dalam pengumuman tersebut juga disebutkan, kebijakan fiskal China sekarang akan lebih proaktif dan lebih terkoordinasi dengan lebijakan keuangan. Ini menjadi sinyal bahwa Kementerian Keuangan China akan meningkatkan kontribusinya untuk mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi.
Selama ini, fungsi itu lebih banyak dimainkan Bank Sentral China. Untuk memompa ekonomi China, People's Bank of China (PBOC) telah memangkas rasio cadangan tiga kali tahun ini dan meluncurkan serangkaian kebijakan untuk sektor swasta dan usaha kecil.
Hasil pertemuan Dewan Negara China juga menegaskan lagi kebijakan China yang ingin menyeimbangkan antara pelonggaran dan pengetatan, serta menjaga likuiditas dalam tingkat yang wajar dan memadai.
"Saya pikir tidak ada pelonggaran atau perubahan kebijakan yang signifikan. Itu lebih kebijakan fine-tuning,“ kata Larry Hu, Kepala Ekonomi China di Macquarie Securities Hong Kong.
Berikut ini paket kebijakan ekonomi yang disiapkan China:
1. Memberikan potongan pajak tambahan sebesar 65 miliar yuan atau setara US$ 9,6 miliar untuk perusahaan yang memiliki bujet riset dan pengembangan (R & D).
2. Mempercepat penjualan obligasi khusus untuk membantu pembiayaan infrastruktur pemerintah daerah.
3. Mengurangi pembatasan penerbitan obligasi keuangan bank untuk pembiayan perusahaan kecil.
4. Mengaktifkan investasi swasta dengan memperkenalkan proyek transportasi, gas, dan telekomunikasi.
5. Lebih membuka kebijakan yang menarik pebisnis asing berinvestasi kembali (reinvest).
6. Mendorong pemerintah daerah memanfaatkan dana fiskal yang belum dimanfaatkan dengan baik.
7. Memandu lembaga keuangan untuk memastikan pendanaan yang masuk akal bagi lembaga pembiayaan pemerintah daerah, sehingga proyek yang diperlukan tidak tertahan.
8. Memfasilitasi perencanaan dan konstruksi sejumlah proyek besar.
9. Mempercepat penelitian fundamental dan terobosan teknologi inti.
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA — Pertemuan Menteri Keuangan dan Gubernur Bank Sentral serta Deputi negara-negara G20 di Buenos Aires, Argentina pada 19-22 Juli 2018 menekankan perlunya meningkatkan kerjasama internasional dalam mengatasi ketidakpastian pasar keuangan global untuk menjaga kontinuitas momentum pertumbuhan global.
Pertemuan tersebut dihadiri oleh delegasi Indonesia yang dipimpin oleh Menteri Keuangan RI dan Deputi Gubernur Bank Indonesia Dody Budi Waluyo.
Perekonomian global memang masih diperkirakan tumbuh solid sebesar 3,9% di tahun 2018 dan 2019, namun perekonomian global mulai menunjukkan risiko perlambatan pertumbuhan dalam jangka menengah dan meningkatnya faktor risiko.
Direktur Eksekutif Departemen Komunikasi BI Agusman mengatakan faktor risiko tersebut terutama bersumber dari ketegangan perdagangan, normalisasi kebijakan suku bunga beberapa Bank Sentral, dan ketegangan geopolitik di beberapa kawasan.
Dampak perkembangan teknologi terhadap sektor keuangan juga mewarnai diskusi pada pertemuan, khususnya mengenai upaya eksplorasi manfaat tekonologi keuangan bagi konsumen, investor, dan perekonomian serta kekuatiran terhadap risiko yang timbul dari perkembangan teknologi keuangan dan bagaimana memitigasi risiko dimaksud.
"Memperhatikan perkembangan global tersebut, negara-negara G20 didorong untuk lebih meningkatkan komunikasi dan koordinasi kebijakan untuk menjaga stabilitas makroekonomi dan keuangan, dan mendukung multilateralisme dalam menyelesaikan permasalahan ekonomi dan keuangan global," ujar Agusman dalam siaran pers, Senin (23/7).
Menurut Agusman, Menteri Keuangan dan Gubernur Bank Sentral negara-negara G20 juga menekankan pentingnya memperkuat kerjasama dan efektivitas G20 ke depan sebagai forum utama dalam mendiskusikan permasalahan global dan menghasilkan solusi bersama.
Dinamika perekonomian global pada pembahasan G20 tersebut sejalan dengan asesmen Bank Indonesia sebagaimana tercermin pada Rapat Dewan Gubernur pada 18-19 Juli 2018.
Dalam kesempatan tersebut, Bank Indonesia menyampaikan adanya kenaikan risiko nilai tukar di banyak negara, khususnya di negara berkembang, yang memaksa Bank Sentral menaikkan suku bunga untuk menjaga stabilitas, terlepas kondisi ekonomi domestik yang masih kuat dan kokoh yang tidak memerlukan kenaikan suku bunga tersebut.
"Dalam kaitan tersebut, Bank Indonesia menekankan pentingnya memperkuat bauran kebijakan moneter dan fiskal, serta memperkuat koordinasi dengan Pemerintah dan otoritas terkait untuk menjaga stabilitas dan mendorong pelaksanaan reformasi struktural," kata Agusman.
Pada pertemuan tersebut, melalui penayangan video, Gubernur Bank Indonesia mendukung agenda Presidensi G20 Argentina dalam membahas perekonomian global, memperkuat sistem keuangan internasional, meningkatkan pembiayaan infrastruktur, dan serta mendalami isu-isu ekonomi digital.
Dalam acara ini, Indonesia turut mengundang para Menteri Keuangan dan Gubernur Bank Sentral negara-negara G20 untuk hadir dalam Sidang Tahunan IMF-World Bank 2018 serta menyambut rencana pertemuan Menteri Keuangan dan Gubenur Bank Sentral G20 selanjutnya pada Oktober 2018 di Bali, Indonesia.
"Selain menghadiri pertemuan IMF/WB dan G20, guna mendukung kinerja pariwisata nasional, Indonesia juga mengajak agar delegasi berbagai otoritas keuangan dunia tersebut berkesempatan mengunjungi dan menikmati sejumlah tujuan wisata unggulan di berbagai sudut Indonesia," ungkap Agusman.
🌸
KONTAN.CO.ID - BUENOS AIRES. Dana Moneter Internasional atau International Monetary Fund (IMF) memperingatkan para pemimpin ekonomi dunia bahwa gelombang tarif perdagangan baru-baru ini akan secara signifikan membahayakan pertumbuhan global. Seruan ini dilontarkan IMF sehari setelah Presiden Amerika Serikat (AS), Donald Trump mengancam eskalasi besar dalam perselisihan dengan China.
Mengutip Reuters, Sabtu (21/7) Direktur Pelaksana IMF Christine Lagarde mengatakan akan menghadirkan pertemuan para menteri keuangan negara-negara G20 dan pertemuan gubernur bank sentral G20 di Buenos Aires dengan laporan yang merinci dampak pembatasan yang sudah diumumkan pada perdagangan global.
"Perang tarif ini tentu akan berdampak terhadap produk domestik bruto (PDB), yang dalam skenario terburuk dalam ukuran saat ini berada di kisaran 0,5% PDB secara global," kata Lagarde dalam sebuah konferensi pers di Buenos Aires, dilansir dari Reuters, Sabtu (21/7).
Dalam catatan singkat yang disiapkan untuk menteri G20, IMF mempertahankan proyeksi pertumbuhan global 3,9% pada 2018 dan 2019, tetapi risiko penurunan membesar karena konflik perdagangan yang berkembang.
Peringatannya datang tak lama setelah pejabat ekonomi tinggi AS, Menteri Keuangan Steven Mnuchin, mengatakan kepada wartawan di ibukota Argentina bahwa tidak ada efek “makro” terhadap ekonomi terbesar di dunia.
Ketegangan perdagangan yang memanas telah meledak dalam beberapa bulan terakhir, dengan Amerika Serikat dan China, ekonomi terbesar dan kedua terbesar di dunia, saling melontarkan tarif senilai US$ 34 miliar barang satu sama lain sejauh ini.
Sayangnya, pertemuan ekonomi G20 akhir pekan di Buenos Aires datang di tengah eskalasi dramatis retorika di kedua sisi. Trump pada Jumat (20/7) mengancam tarif senilai US$ 500 miliar atas barang-barang China yang dieskpor ke AS.
Mnuchin mengatakan bahwa meski ada beberapa efek "mikro" seperti pembalasan terhadap kedelai, lobster dan bourbon yang diproduksi AS, dia tidak percaya bahwa tarif akan membuat AS tidak mencapai pertumbuhan 3% tahun ini.
"Saya masih berpikir dari basis makro, kami tidak melihat dampak apa pun pada pertumbuhan yang sangat positif," kata Mnuchin, seraya menambahkan bahwa dia memantau harga baja, aluminium, kayu dan kedelai.
🍃
marketwatch: The leaders of Japan and the European Union signed a deal to create one of the world’s largest liberalized trade zones, a contrast to escalating trade disputes between the U.S. and several of its trading partners.
While the signing in Tokyo on Tuesday was largely ceremonial, it marked a rare moment of unity on trade. In recent months, President Donald Trump has launched an array of punitive tariffs on products from China and elsewhere, stating that the action is needed to correct the unfair trade advantages of other nations.
The EU and Japan’s answer to Trump’s trade policies has been the biggest trade deal struck by Brussels that will eliminate some €1 billion ($1.17 billion) in tariffs for European companies annually and double that amount for Japanese exporters to the 28-member bloc, according to EU officials.
“We are sending a clear message that we stand together against protectionism,” European Council President Donald Tusk said at press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.
The Japan-EU deal eliminates most bilateral tariffs, creating more favorable terms for Japanese autos sold in the EU, and European wine and dairy products sold in Japan. The EU and Japan together account for around 30% of global economic output.
🌹
INILAHCOM, Beijing - China melaporkan impor Juni naik 14,1 persen dalam denominasi dolar, jatuh jauh dari kenaikan 20,8 persen yang diperkirakan oleh para analis.
Ekspor China, sementara itu, sedikit di atas ekspektasi dengan naik 11,3 persen pada Juni, menurut data dari Administrasi Umum Kepabeanan negara itu menunjukkan pada Jumat (13/7/2018).
Secara keseluruhan, Cina mengalami surplus perdagangan US$41,61 miliar pada bulan Juni. Para ekonom telah memperkirakan neraca perdagangan China secara keseluruhan akan melebar menjadi hanya US$27,61 miliar pada Juni dari US$24,92 miliar pada bulan Mei.
Rilis data Jumat terjadi di tengah meningkatnya ketegangan perdagangan antara dua ekonomi terbesar dunia.
Awal pekan ini, pemerintahan Presiden Donald Trump merilis daftar barang-barang Cina senilai $ 200 miliar yang dikatakannya bertujuan untuk dikenakan tarif 10 persen menyusul proses peninjauan. Tiongkok mengancam akan melakukan tindakan balas dendam dan berjanji akan mengajukan keluhan kepada Organisasi Perdagangan Dunia.
Minggu lalu, tarif AS pada US$34 miliar dalam produk China mulai berlaku. China membalas dengan menampar 25 persen tugas dengan jumlah yang sama dalam barang-barang AS.
Mungkin beberapa saat sebelum kedua pihak menemukan resolusi, kata Melanie Hart, direktur Kebijakan China di Center for American Progress.
"Tidak mungkin pada titik ini bahwa kedua pihak akan mundur dengan cepat dalam beberapa bulan mendatang. Ini kemungkinan akan diperpanjang," kata Hart kepada CNBC.
"Satu hal yang sangat jelas adalah bahwa Washington telah meremehkan ketetapan Beijing dan Beijing telah meremehkan tekad Washington. Jadi proses untuk memahami tentang bagaimana perusahaan yang ingin dicapai kedua pihak akan membutuhkan waktu untuk bergoyang," kata Hart.
🌹
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Upaya pasar untuk berkonsolidasi berhasil mengangkat kinerja bursa saham Asia pada perdagangan Kamis pagi (12/7/2018), setelah membukukan penurunan tajam pada sesi perdagangan sebelumnya ketika kekhawatiran eskalasi dalam perang dagang AS-China mengguncang sentimen investor.
Dilansir dari Reuters, indeks saham MSCI Asia Pacific, selain Jepang, bergerak positif pagi ini. Pada perdagangan Rabu (11/7), indeks merosot 1% bersama dengan pelemahan pasar ekuitas global.
Pasar saham terpukul pada Rabu setelah Presiden Amerika Serikat (AS) Donald Trump mengancam untuk mengenakan tarif pada impor tambahan senilai US$200 miliar asal China sekaligus memperdalam perselisihan dagang antara dua negara berkekuatan ekonomi terbesar di dunia tersebut.
Rebound sejumlah bursa saham di kawasan Asia mendongkrak gerak indeks MSCI, dengan indeks Shanghai Composite dan CSI 300 China masing-masing menguat 1,89% dan 2,05%. Adapun indeks Hang Seng Hong Kong naik 0,62%.
Sementara itu, indeks Topix dan Nikkei 225 Jepang masing-masing naik 0,66% dan 1,11%, sedangkan indeks Kospi Korea Selatan naik 0,57% pada pukul 10.44 WIB.
Indeks S&P 500 dan Dow Jones di bursa Wall Street Amerika Serikat masing-masing bergerak naik menuju posisi yang lebih tinggi untuk sesi perdagangan berikutnya.
“Pasar memiliki waktu untuk mencermati perkembangan perang dagang terbaru dan siap untuk mulai melakukan konsolidasi,” ujar Masahiro Ichikawa, pakar strategi senior di Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management.
“Ini telah menjadi pola yang bereaksi terhadap setiap perkembangan baru dan berharap bahwa ketegangan perdagangan mereda dalam beberapa bulan ke depan melalui negosiasi,” lanjutnya, seperti dikutip Reuters.
Fokus pasar beralih ke potensi langkah berikutnya dalam konflik perdagangan yang dipenuhi aksi balas membalas. China menuding Amerika Serikat melakukan intimidasi serta memperingatkan bahwa pihaknya dapat membalas.
“Pilihan pembalasan yang tersedia untuk China termasuk memboikot barang-barang Amerika, devaluasi yuan secara tajam, dan menjual kepemilikan Treasury AS,” tulis Xiao Minjie, ekonom senior di SMBC Nikko Securities di Tokyo.
“Tetapi kami yakin tak satu pun dari langkah-langkah ini yang realistis atau produktif. Langkah paling bijaksana dalam pandangan kami adalah China mempercepat pembukaan pasarnya daripada terus bertukar balasan dengan Amerika Serikat,” lanjutnya.
Di sisi komoditas, harga minyak Brent rebound dan naik menembus level US$74 per barel pagi ini, setelah anjlok hampir 7% dan terlempar ke posisi 73,40, penurunan persentase harian terbesarnya sejak Februari 2016.
Pelemahan harga minyak sebelumnya terdampak tensi perdagangan yang mengancam merugikan permintaan minyak berikut kabar bahwa Libya akan membuka kembali pelabuhannya sehingga meningkatkan ekspektasi pertumbuhan suplai.
🍁
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Inflasi Amerika Serikat meningkat di bawah perkiraan pada bulan Juni, di tengah jatuhnya harga utilitas dan rekor penurunan biaya hotel.
Departemen Tenaga Kerja AS menunjukkan indeks harga konsumen (Consumer Price Index) naik 0,1% dari bulan sebelumnya setelah kenaikan 0,2% pada bulan Mei, sementara IHK inti yang tidak termasuk makanan dan energi naik 0,2%.
Median dalam survei Bloomberg sebelumnya memperkirakan kenaikan 0,2% pada IHK utama dan inti.
Dibandingkan bulan yang sama tahun sebelumnya, IHK AS tercatat naik 2,9%, terbesar sejak 2012, sementara IHK inti naik 2,3%, kenaikan terbesar sejak Januari 2017. Keduanya sejalan dengan perkiraan ekonom.
Kenaikan IHK inti mencerminkan adanya tekanan ke atas pada layanan dan beberapa barang, dengan kenaikan lapangan kerja dan belanja konsumen stabil dan pertumbuhan ekonomi kuartal kedua diproyeksikan meningkat sementara hingga 4%.
“Ketika melihat pada komponen yang lebih besar, ada tekanan harga yang sederhana secara keseluruhan,” kata Thomas Simons, seorang ekonom di Jefferies LLC, seperti dikutip Bloomberg.
“Ada beberapa titik yang tidak seimbang di sana-sini di luar sektor energi yang lemah. Semuanya adalah kontributor kecil tetapi ketika ada mengalami penurunan besar dalam kategori ini, ada pengurangan yang menurunkan indeks keseluruhan,” lanjutnya.
Beberapa pejabat Fed telah mengindikasikan dalam pernyataannya bahwa overshoot sederhana tujuan inflasi tidak akan berarti laju kenaikan suku bunga yang lebih agresif, karena selama bertahun-tahun, kenaikan harga datang di bawah ekspektasi.
🌼
KONTAN.CO.ID - BEIJING. Inflasi produsen China mencapai level tertinggi dalam enam bulan pada bulan Juni karena harga komoditas yang terus terangkat. Kenaikan inflasi produsen ini mengancam eksportir China di tengah ketegangan perang dagang antara Amerika Serikat (AS) dan China.
Mengutip Reuters, Selasa (10/7) data statistik resmi pemerintah China juga menyebutkan inflasi konsumen tahunan juga naik karena harga makanan naik lebih cepat. Tapi tekanan harga eceran tetap rendah, memungkinkan bank sentral untuk tetap lebih fokus pada cara-cara untuk mendukung ekonomi.
AS dan China saling menjatuhkan tarif senilai US$ 34 miliar dari barang satu sama lain pekan lalu. Hal ini memicu kekhawatiran pertempuran berkepanjangan yang akan melukai investasi dan pertumbuhan global, merusak ekspor pertanian AS dan berpotensi menaikkan harga pangan di China.
Indeks harga produsen, yang merupakan ukuran profitabilitas industri, naik 4,7% lebih kuat dari perkiraan pada Juni dari tahun sebelumnya, dibandingkan dengan kenaikan 4,1% pada Mei, menurut biro statistik nasional China.
Inflasi produsen China naik dalam tiga bulan berturut-turut. Sebelumnya, inflasi produsen turun pada akhir 2017. Meskipun pertumbuhan bulan ke bulan merosot menjadi 0,3% pada Juni.
Analis yang disurvei oleh Reuters memperkirakan, inflasi produsen Juni akan mencapai 4,5%, didukung oleh pemulihan baru-baru ini di harga komoditas global.
Kenaikan harga Juni didorong oleh peningkatan produksi minyak dan gas, penambangan batubara, logam dan pengolahan bahan kimia dan sektor manufaktur. Dengan harga minyak naik, China pada hari Senin (9/7) menaikkan harga bensin ritel. Kenaikan ini adalah kenaikan harga terbesar sejak Desember 2016.
"Tidak seperti tahun lalu yang penyebab kenaikan PPI-nya lebih luas, pendorong tahun ini terutama karena kenaikan harga minyak, jadi kurang menguntungkan bagi laba korporasi," kata Julian Evans-Pritchard, Ekonom Senior China di Capital Economics, dilansir dari Reuters, Selasa (10/7).
Indeks harga konsumen naik 1,9% pada Juni dari tahun sebelumnya, sejalan dengan ekspektasi kenaikan dari bulan Mei yang ada di 1,8%. Secara bulanan, indeks harga konsumen China turun 0,1%.
Indeks harga konsumen inti yang mengecualikan harga volatile food dan energi stagnan pada 1,9%. Indeks harga pangan naik 0,3% dibandingkan dengan Juni tahun lalu. Bulan Mei, indeks harga pangan hanya naik 0,1%.
🌽
china daily: The United States has resorted to trade protectionism to not only boost its economy but also maintain its global hegemony, disrupting the world order and causing tensions across economies. Should China cooperate with other countries to counter the US' protectionist moves? Two experts share their views with China Daily's Pan Yixuan. Excerpts follow:
Development, cooperation should not be disrupted
The world's only superpower has become its biggest destabilizing factor. This makes it absolutely necessary for all the countries that want to maintain the multilateral international trading system to cooperate, in order to safeguard their interests that are being threatened by the US' protectionist moves.
The need for global cooperation for common development has long been a consensus among the international community. But US President Donald Trump seeks to boost the US economy at the cost of not only other countries, but also the multilateral trading system. The US' protectionist and unilateral moves have harmed its relations with many countries, including its allies, and violated international trade rules.
Therefore, the rest of the world should sincerely promote cooperative development to defeat Trump's designs. As a main target of Washington, Beijing should firmly adhere to free trade. And the other countries which oppose US protectionism should uphold the World Trade Organization rules so as to strengthen multilateral cooperation.
But disagreements among the economies should not be ignored just because they are ready to cooperate to counter the US' protectionist policies. For instance, China, a main target of the US in the field of trade, and the European Union, a US ally hurt by US protectionism, have increased communication and decided to deepen cooperation to protect the multilateral trading mechanism.
But, just like the US, the EU had earlier alleged that violation of intellectual property rights and the role of China's State-owned enterprises in the market were to blame for its trade deficit with China. But unlike Washington, Brussels did not take any extreme measures against Beijing to resolve the issue. So, in order to continue cooperation with the other economies, China must strengthen communication on such issues and honor the promises it makes to resolve those issues, apart from further deepening domestic reform and opening-up.
Lest it be misunderstood, further deepening, or the "deep-water zone", of reform and opening-up is not in response to a looming trade war with the US, but an essential part of China's development process. Further reform and opening-up will strengthen China's economy and boost its competitiveness in world trade in the long run, which in turn will help the country better cope with a trade war.
Only by sustaining its pace of development through further reform and opening-up can China continue to cooperate and negotiate with the rest of the world.
Wang Dong, deputy executive director of the Institute for China-US People-to-People Exchange, Peking University, and secretary general of the Academic Committee of Pangoal Institution
World needs cooperation as well as countermeasures
The US' protectionist and self-seeking trade, export and tariff policies have caused huge losses and a great deal of trouble to China. But as the world's largest economy, the US should realize a trade war, which it seems desperate to launch against China, would harm both sides.
Also, since the US' protectionist moves have hurt the economies of even many of its allies－such as the European Union, Canada, Mexico and Japan－China can work together with those economies, which seem determined to push the US back to the multilateral trade system and neutralize the Trump administration's unilateral actions. In fact, China-EU and China-Japan relations have improved in recent months, making cooperation to counter US protectionism more possible.
Most of the countries opposed to US policies have taken a similar stance: although they don't want a trade war, they are not afraid of taking countermeasures against US protectionism. Based on this understanding, the economies can jointly put pressure on Washington in two ways.
A peaceful approach would be to try and convince the Trump administration that a trade war, which is becoming imminent with each passing day, will backfire on the US economy.
With the collapse of the Bretton Woods Agreement in the 1970s, currencies ceased being pegged to the price of gold thanks to former US president Richard Nixon's actions. The de-pegging of the US dollar from the price of gold made it a fiat currency－and ultimately a reserve currency used by many economies. There was a tacit agreement, though, that the US had to be a big global buyer to retain the privilege of its dollar.
However, since Trump sees trade from a microscopic perspective, he wants the US to both enjoy the currency privilege and reduce the trade deficit. A macroscopic view of trade would show the currency and trade systems have a mirror-image relationship, which means if the US continues to use protectionist policies, there won't be enough dollar left in the world market to maintain its "status" as a privileged currency. Accordingly, the US' global influence will decrease. The US will then be forced to choose between reducing its trade deficit and retaining the dollar as a privileged currency.
Perhaps export-oriented economies such as China, Japan, Canada and the Republic of Korea should jointly explain this fact to the US, so that it stops trying to ignite a trade war.
That does not mean countermeasures should not be taken against the US. Indeed, there is a need to impose restrictions on US investments, including merger and acquisition bids. The EU has already announced investigation into US-based companies such as Facebook.
It is not mathematically possible to calculate the real value of trade in bilateral ties, because in the global supply chain, a country's profits cannot be judged only on the basis of surplus or deficit. As such, China and the other economies should take countermeasures to convince the US that it too will suffer the consequences of a trade war.
Di Dongsheng, associate dean of the School of International Studies, and International Monetary Institute, Renmin University of China
🍊
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Pergerakan tiga indeks saham utama Amerika Serikat (AS) di bursa Wall Street berhasil berakhir di zona hijau pada perdagangan Senin (2/7/2018), saat penguatan sejumlah perusahaan teknologi menutupi kekhawatiran tentang eskalasi perang dagang AS dengan mitra-mitra dagangnya.
Berdasarkan data Reuters, indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average ditutup naik 0,15% di level 24.307,18, indeks S&P 500 naik 0,31% di 2.726,71, sedangkan indeks Nasdaq Composite berakhir menguat 0,76% di level 7.567,69.
Saham Microsoft Inc., Facebook Inc., dan Apple Inc. yang masing-masing naik 1% atau lebih, mendorong indeks teknologi informasi pada S&P 500 naik 0,99%, sekaligus membawa kenaikan year-to-date menjadi 11% saat investor bertaruh pada pendapatan yang kuat dari Silicon Valley mendekati musim pelaporan triwulanan.
“Sepertinya teknologi tidak akan melambat tahun ini,” kata Jake Dollarhide, CEO Longbow Asset Management di Tulsa, Oklahoma, seperti dikutip Reuters.
Para pedagang juga menantikan waktu yang ditetapkan pada 6 Juli untuk pengenaan tarif AS terhadap barang-barang China senilai US$34 miliar barang-barang China. Hal ini diantisipasi mendorong ancaman respons yang kuat dari pemerintah China.
Sementara itu, Uni Eropa telah memperingatkan AS bahwa pengenaan tarif impor pada mobil dan suku cadang mobil kemungkinan akan mengarah pada langkah-langkah balasan terhadao ekspor AS senilai US$294 miliar. Kanada telah berjanji untuk mengambil langkah-langkah sebagai tanggapan terhadap tarif baja dan aluminium oleh AS.
“Balas membalas tarif dagang ini pada akhirnya akan meningkatkan harga bagi konsumen dan kemungkinan akan mengurangi permintaan untuk produk-produk,” kata Jack Ablin, chief investment officer di Cresset Wealth Advisors.
Ablin memperkirakan laba perusahaan-perusahaan AS yang kuat untuk kuartal yang berakhir pada bulan Juni. Akan tetapi, kinerja laba sepanjang sisa 2018 terancam eskalasi perang perdagangan.
Hanya tiga dari 11 sektor utama S&P 500 yang berakhir lebih rendah pada hari Senin, dengan sektor energi turun 1,55% akibat penurunan 2% dalam minyak mentah Brent.
Pada Selasa (3/7) siang waktu setempat, bursa saham AS akan mulai ditutup menjelang liburan Fourth of July. Sejumlah investor sudah mengambil waktu libur pada Senin. Volume perdagangan di bursa AS pun mencapai 6,2 miliar saham, dibandingkan dengan rata-rata sebesar 7,3 miliar selama 20 hari perdagangan terakhir.
Turut membantu pergerakan pasar kemarin adalah data Departemen Perdagangan yang menunjukkan belanja konstruksi AS meningkat 0,4% pada bulan Mei, lebih dari perkiraan, di tengah kenaikan investasi pada proyek-proyek konstruksi swasta dan publik.
🌹
KONTAN.CO.ID - BEIJING. Bank sentral China mengumumkan pada pada hari Minggu (24/6) akan memangkas jumlah uang tunai yang beberapa bank harus pegang sebagai cadangan, sebesar 50 basis poin (bps).
Kebijakan yang akan melepaskan US$ 108 miliar dalam likuiditas ini bertujuan mempercepat laju pertukaran (swap) utang perusahaan ke saham serta memacu penyaluran kredit kepada perusahaan yang lebih kecil.
Pengurangan cadangan ketiga kali oleh bank sentral tahun ini telah banyak diantisipasi oleh investor di tengah kekhawatiran atas likuiditas pasar dan hambatan ekonomi potensial dari sengketa perdagangan dengan Amerika Serikat (AS).
Namun demikian, nilai sebesar 700 miliar yuan ( setara US$ 107,65 miliar) yang diperkirakan bank sentral akan menambah likuiditas dari pengurangan cadangan tersebut lebih besar dari yang diperkirakan.
Ekspektasi pemotongan telah meningkat setelah Dewan Negara, atau kabinet, mengatakan pada Rabu pekan lalu bahwa alat kebijakan moneter, termasuk pemotongan target rasio cadangan bank akan dikerahkan untuk memperkuat aliran kredit ke perusahaan kecil dan menjaga pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam kisaran yang wajar.
Bank Rakyat China (PBOC) mengatakan pada hari Minggu bahwa pemotongan terbaru rasio minimum cadangan bank (RRR) -saat ini 16% bagi besar dan 14% untuk bank-bank kecil- akan berlaku pada 5 Juli mendatang.
PBOC juga mengatakan bahwa pemotongan akan melepaskan sekitar 500 miliar yuan ($ 77 miliar) dari lima bank besar milik negara dan 12 bank umum swasta. Bank-bank didorong menggunakan uang itu untuk melakukan debt-for-equity swaps.
Pembuat kebijakan Cina telah mendorong untuk swap utang ke saham sejak akhir 2016 untuk mengurangi tekanan pada perusahaan yang berjuang dengan utang mereka.
Bank-bank top negara yang dikendalikan oleh pemerintah telah bergegas menandatangani kesepakatan dengan perusahaan-perusahaan milik negara untuk meringankan beban utang mereka dan memberi mereka waktu untuk mengubah bisnis mereka dan meningkatkan kelayakan kredit mereka.
Pemotongan RRR terbaru juga akan melepas sekitar 200 miliar yuan dalam pendanaan bank menengah dan kecil untuk meningkatkan pinjaman kepada usaha kecil yang kekurangan kredit, kata PBOC.
Gabungan injeksi likuiditas 700 miliar yuan tersebut melebihi ekspektasi pasar yang memperkirakan hanya senilai 400 miliar yuan. Dalam pemotongan RRR yang terakhir ditargetkan pada April, 400 miliar yuan likuiditas bersih dirilis. "Intensitas pergerakan melebihi ekspektasi pasar," kata Wang Jun, kepala ekonom yang berbasis di Beijing di Zhongyuan Bank.
"Langkah ini akan membantu mendukung ekonomi riil dan menstabilkan pasar keuangan. Kami telah melihat peningkatan default utang dan tekanan pendanaan pada perusahaan kecil, serta penyesuaian tajam di pasar modal."
Pengumuman hari Minggu kemarin terbit menyusul penurunan mingguan terburuk di pasar saham China sejak awal Februari karena kekhawatiran perang dagang penuh dengan Amerika Serikat membebani. Yuan China pada hari Jumat juga jatuh ke terendah terhadap dolar dalam lebih dari lima bulan, meskipun tetap kuat terhadap sejumlah mata uang mitra dagang, dan depresiasi tajam tidak ada dalam kartu.
🍇
INILAHCOM, New York - Dolar AS naik ke level terbaiknya dalam setahun melawan rival Kanadanya. Ini berkat data ekonomi Kanada yang lesu yang menggarisbawahi kerapuhan ekonomi Kanada.
Tetapi karena mata uang AS keluar dari posisi tertinggi, loonie sebagaimana dolar Kanada USDCAD, -0,3755% juga diketahui mendapatkan kembali pijakannya.
Greenback terakhir dibeli C $ 1,3278, dibandingkan dengan C $ 1,3316 Kamis malam, setelah mencapai tinggi C $ 1,3373 sebelumnya. Indeks Dollar Amerika Serikat, DXY, -0,36% sementara itu, turun 0,2% pada 94,535.
Pada pekan ini, indeks turun 0,3%, menyusul kenaikan 1,3% pada pekan sebelumnya.
Data Jumat pagi Kanada menunjukkan inflasi Mei 0,05%, kurang dari perkiraan 0,5%, sementara inflasi inti melambat menjadi 1,9% untuk 12 bulan yang berakhir pada Mei, dari 2,1% sebelumnya. Penjualan ritel sementara dikontrak oleh 1,2% pada bulan April, dibandingkan dengan perkiraan konsensus FactSet dari kinerja yang datar.
Data yang lebih kuat kemungkinan akan mendukung ekspektasi untuk tindakan pengetatan dari Bank of Canada pada Juli, kata ahli strategi Scotiabank, Shaun Osborne dan Eric Theoret dalam catatan, tetapi harapan ini mengecewakan, seperti mengutp marketwatch.com.
Dewan Komisaris telah harus berurusan dengan banyak bagian yang bergerak dalam membuat keputusan kebijakan moneternya, termasuk pasar perumahan, yang terus-menerus berada di ambang krisis, serta memburuknya hubungan perdagangan internasional. Kanada adalah pengekspor baja terbesar ke AS dan dihantam oleh putaran pertama tarif Presiden Donald Trump.
Selain itu, ini adalah anggota Perjanjian Perdagangan Bebas Amerika Utara yang menghubungkannya dengan Meksiko dan AS. Nafta telah dinegosiasi ulang sejak Agustus 2017, dan tidak ada akhir untuk pembicaraan yang terlihat. Pelaku pasar berharap ini akan baik sampai 2019 sebelum kesepakatan tercapai, kecuali AS menarik diri dari perjanjian sebelumnya.
Sementara itu, kelompok Organisasi Negara-negara Pengekspor Minyak (OPEC) pada prinsipnya mencapai kesepakatan untuk meningkatkan produksi sebesar satu juta barel per hari pada hari Jumat. Minyak berjangka, yang terkadang memandu mata uang Kanada karena ketergantungan negara pada industri energi, naik pada hari Jumat. Minyak mentah brent untuk pengiriman Agustus LCOQ8, + 3,39% ditutup pada $ 75,44 per barel, naik 3,3%.
Di tempat lain, euro EURUSD, + 0,4481% mereklamasi kembali ground Jumat tetapi menemukan dirinya terjebak di antara data ekonomi yang mendukung dan berlanjutnya perdagangan dengan AS. Uni Eropa mengatakan akan mulai menerapkan tarif pada $ 3,2 miliar impor AS pada hari Jumat.
Sebagai tanggapan, Presiden Trump mengancam tarif tambahan 20% pada impor mobil Eropa.
Berdasarkan Tarif dan Hambatan Perdagangan yang lama ditempatkan di AS dan perusahaan dan pekerja besar oleh Uni Eropa, jika Tarif dan Hambatan ini tidak segera diuraikan dan dihapus, kami akan menempatkan Tarif 20% pada semua mobil mereka datang ke AS Bangun mereka di sini! - Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) 22 Juni 2018.
Pada saat yang sama, data menunjukkan aktivitas bisnis Prancis yang lebih kuat dari perkiraan, dengan pembacaan PMI flash 56,4 dibandingkan harapan membentuk 54,3, yang membantu mata uang bersama. Euro terakhir dibeli $ 1,1660, naik dari $ 1,1604 Kamis malam di New York.
Data "menjaga harapan bahwa pertumbuhan Q2 di Eropa bisa lebih baik daripada Q1," kata Naeem Aslam, analis di Think Markets. "Data layanan flash Prancis yang kuat juga mendukung pasangan euro-dolar, jelas ada lebih banyak momentum untuk sapi jantan hari ini."
🍉
KONTAN.CO.ID - TOKYO. Bursa Asia merosot di perdagangan Senin pagi (18/6). Investor menahan uangnya, mewaspadai hubungan dagang Amerika Serikat (AS) dengan China yang makin panas.
MSCI Asia Pasifik di luar Jepang turun 0,2%, mendekati level terendahnya sejak 31 Mei. Pasar China dan Hong Kong ditutup hari ini karena libur festival Dragon Boat.
Sementara itu, Indeks Nikkei Jepang merosot 0,7%, dipicu kekhawatiran proteksionisme akan menjegal ekspor Jepang, yang saat ini masih tumbuh lebih baik ketimbang perkiraan.
Jumat lalu, Presiden AS Donald Trump menjatuhkan tarif berat sampai 25% atas produk impor China bernilai US$ 50 miliar. Tarif yang berimbas pada 800 produk penting China ini, termasuk mobil, akan berlaku 6 Juli.
China pun diberitakan akan membalas dengan memberlakukan tarif yang sama beratnya dengan sikap AS, yang berdampak pada 659 produk AS. Produk impor dari AS yang dibidik sekitar 659 produk bernilai US$ 50 miliar.
Pasar pun khawatir dengan sikap AS yang melabrak banyak negara dengan seruan perdagangan tak adil. "Saat ini ada gesekan perdagangan, bukan hanya antara AS dan China, tapi juga AS dan aliansinya. Trump bahkan bisa menekan negara lain seperti Jepang dan NATO," ata Yoshinori Shigemi, global market strategist di JPMorgan Asset Management di Tokyo, seperti dikutip Reuters.
Dia menyebut, saat ini investor menghindari saham-saham high-tech dan emiten kecil. "Masih banyak likuiditas, tapi investor berhati-hati," katanya.
🐍
Goldman: Something strange is happening with the US economy that could cause interest rates to jump
The U.S. budget deficit is growing at a time when the unemployment rate is falling, something that hasn't happened in peacetime since World War II.
Goldman Sachs projects that rising costs to fund the deficit will force the government to borrow more which will push up interest rates.
In all, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield likely will rise from nearly 3 percent now to 3.6 percent by the end of 2019, Goldman projects.
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA -- Para pemegang saham Bank Dunia mendukung penambahan modal disetor sebesar US$13 miliar, sekitar Rp180 triliun.
Reuters melansir, Minggu (22/4/2018), rencana tersebut akan memungkinkan Bank Dunia untuk memberikan lebih banyak pinjaman menjadi hampir US$80 miliar pada tahun fiskal 2019, dari sekitar US$59 miliar pada 2017.
Secara rata-rata, pinjaman yang diberikan akan menjadi US$100 miliar per tahun hingga 2030. Bank Dunia terakhir kali menambah modalnya pada 2010.
"Kami meningkatkan kapasitas World Bank Group lebih dari dua kali lipat," ungkap Presiden Bank Dunia Jim Yong Kim kepada wartawan dalam Spring Meetings IMF-World Bank di Washington, AS.
Dari penambahan modal disetor tersebut, sebesar US$7,5 miliar disalurkan ke International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD). Institusi ini juga akan mendapatkan tambahan US$52,6 miliar dalam bentuk callable capital.
Sementara itu, International Finance Corp bakal memperoleh modal disetor senilai US$5,5 miliar.
Di sisi lain, Bank Dunia setuju untuk mengubah aturan pinjaman IBRD dengan menaikkan bunga bagi negara-negara berkembang yang berpendapatan lebih tinggi. Hal ini dilakukan untuk mencegah negara-negara tersebut meminjam dana terlalu banyak.
Sebelumnya, bunga yang dikenakan sama untuk semua negara peminjam.
Pejabat Departemen Keuangan AS telah mengeluhkan besarnya pinjaman dari Bank Dunia ke China dan negara-negara emerging market lainnya. Menteri Keuangan AS Steve Mnuchin menyatakan dia mendukung kenaikan modal ini karena pentingnya reformasi yang termasuk di dalamnya.
Adapun Kim mengungkapkan tidak ada klausul khusus yang menyasar penurunan pinjaman dari China dalam kesepakatan penambahan modal itu. Namun, dia menyebutkan bahwa pinjaman dari Negeri Panda memang sudah diproyeksi menurun secara bertahap.
Penambahan modal akan berlaku efektif pada tahun fiskal baru yang dimulai pada 1 Juli 2018. Negara-negara anggota memiliki waktu hingga 8 tahun untuk membayar kenaikan ini.
Sumber : Reuters
🌸
BEIJING, KOMPAS.com - Pertumbuhan ekonomi China pada kuartal I 2018 tercatat sebesar 6,8 persen secara tahunan (yoy). Angka tersebut sedikit di atas ekspektasi dan tidak berubah dibandingkan pada kuartal sebelumnya. Dikutip dari Reuters, Selasa (17/4/2018), data resmi yang dirilis pemerintah China menunjukkan terus berlanjutnya resiliensi pada ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia tersebut. Ini terjadi meski ekspor dibayangi meningkatnya ketegangan dengan AS, mitra dagang terbesar China. China dan AS dalam beberapa waktu terakhir saling menebar ancaman berupa penerapam tarif impor. Presiden AS Donald Trump menuding China melakukan praktik perdagangan tidak adil dan mencuri kekayaan intelektual AS. Para analis yang dipolling oleh Reuters mengekspektasikan pertumbuhan ekonomi China mencapai 6,7 persen pada kuartal I 2018. Angka ini sedikit melambat dibandingkan pertumbuhan ekonomi pada dua kuartal sebelumnya yang mencapai 6,8 persen. Baca juga: BPS: Ada Perang Dagang antara AS dan China, Ekspor RI Masih Aman Capaian pertumbuhan ekonomi tersebut berada di atas target pemerintah, yakni sekitar 6,5 persen untuk keseluruhan tahun 2018. Capaian tersebut pun memungkinkan pemerintah China untuk lebih percaya diri dalam mengambil langkah untuk menurunkan risiko di sistem keuangan. Dalam tataran kuartalan, pertumbuhan ekonomi China pada kuartal I 2018 tumbuh 1,4 persen. Angka ini dibandingkan dengan pertumbuhan pada kuartal IV 2017 yang mencapai 1,6 persen, menurut data Biro Statistik Nasional.
bloomberg: China’s steady first-quarter expansion masked a tug-of-war between struggling old industries from mining to textiles, and booming new-economy sectors including e-commerce and health care.
The key question: As President Xi Jinping strives to curb debt and jousts with Donald Trump over trade, how much of the potential drag can the new growth drivers offset?
For now, the new engines are taking up the slack with the economic expansion matching the 6.8 percent pace for the last three months of 2017. Among the drivers, online retail sales soared 35.4 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier while investment in education jumped 26.9percent, the statistics bureau said. Consumption contributed 77.8 percent to the quarterly expansion, slightly up from a year earlier.
Old engines are laboring. Industrial production missed estimates for March amid anemic performance in segments including mining, metal products and textiles.
As consumption’s contribution to growth typically surges in the first three months, Tuesday’s data isn’t likely to be indicative of the outlook for the rest of the year. Indeed, economists forecast a slowdown from 2017 to 6.5 percent growth in 2018, as Xi’s financial risk campaign gains further traction. And if trade tensions with the U.S. escalate, it may be asking too much of China’s new economy to take up all the slack.
“The good news is that consumers are taking it all in stride, offering a welcome buffer against potential tariffs externally and policy curbs on construction locally,” said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economics research at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. The not-so-good news is that “China will likely cool further in the coming months as Beijing’s policy restrictions are starting to bite. Construction in particular is feeling the brunt,” he said.
Trade announcements followed the GDP report. The Commerce Ministry saidtemporary anti-dumping deposits will be imposed on U.S. sorghum imports, adding to trade tensions, while the National Development and Reform Commission said foreign ownership limits for auto ventures will be removed in coming years, a boost to global companies seeking better market access. The Foreign Ministry said Beijing is ready to start trade countermeasures.
“Economic tension between the U.S. and China is rising,” Louis Kuijs, chief Asia economist at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong and a former International Monetary Fund researcher, wrote in a note. “We worry about the long-term implications but view a trade war with substantial short-term growth impact as unlikely. Nonetheless, we continue to expect China’s GDP growth to slow in the rest of the year because of tighter monetary financial policies.”
Another driver of activity was investment in environmental protection and cleanup, which surged 34.2 percent on year in the first quarter, according to the statistics bureau.
Industrial output by the mining sector decreased 1.1 percent in March, compared with a 0.9 percent drop in December, while output for power supply increased 5.8 percent, less than the 8.2 percent increase in December.
“March data point to nascent signs of a growth slowdown underway, led by old economy sectors,” said Rob Subbaraman, chief economist for Asia ex-Japan at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Singapore. “We don’t expect growth in new economy sectors to fully offset the slowdown in the old, heavily-indebted sectors of the economy in the quarters ahead. This is a necessary adjustment to improve the quality of China’s growth.”
If the world’s second largest economy does ease to a pace of 6.5 percent this year, it’ll be the slowest pace since 1990. That’s all part of the plan though, as policy makers have been signaling that they’re prepared to pay a price in headline performance in order to clean up the parts of the economy that are clearly unsustainable.
“This shows us that China can attain the growth target easily in 2018 even with slightly slower expansion in the second half,” said Raymond Yeung, chief greater China economist for Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Hong Kong. “It provides a good window to address some structural issues, especially deleveraging.”
— With assistance by Yinan Zhao, Kevin Hamlin, Fion Li, Ailing Tan, and Chris Anstey
🍁
ID: Kenaikan suku bunga The Fed dan ancaman perang dagang (dipacu dengan disahkannya Trump Tariff) sepertinya akan berdampak negatif pada perekonomian nasional, khususnya kepada inflasi dalam negeri. Akibatnya, target inflasi Bank Indonesia yang dipatok di angka 3,5% (±1%) bisa saja akan terlampaui pada tahun ini.
Kenaikan tingkat inflasi (2,2 yearon year/yoy pada Februari dan 3,4% yoy Maret 2018), seiring dengan penurunan tingkat pengangguran (ke angka 4,1%) dan kenaikan upah (di angka 4,7% yoy), di Amerika Serikat (AS) sepertinya mulai berdampak pada ekonomi dalam negeri.
Hal tersebut dipacu oleh pilihan kebijakan Bank Sentral AS (The Fed) untuk mengerem perekonomian mereka (bersikap countercyclical) dan memunculkan kebijakan kenaikan suku bunga The Fed (atau fed rate hike). Dan nyatanya kenaikan tersebut terjadi pada 21 Maret lalu, di mana suku bunga The Fed (atau FFR) dinaikkan sebesar 25 basispoints (bps).
Kenaikan FFR sepertinya masih akan berlanjut sebanyak 2-3 kali lagi hingga awal tahun mendatang, seiring dengan kenaikan harga aset (diindikasikan harga riil perumahan AS) yang telah melewati angka di tahun 2008 lalu.
Risiko kenaikan inflasi, suku bunga, dan gelembung aset di waktu yang bersamaan sepertinya berdampak pada perilaku investor global yang mulai mengalihkan instrumen investasi mereka ke instrumen yang lebih aman.
Kegelisahan investor semakin menjadi-jadi seiring dengan diberlakukannya tariff di AS bagi produk-produk impor yang berasal dari Tiongkok, dan beberapa jam kemudian dibalas dengan dikeluarkannya daftar 126 produk AS yang akan dikenai tarif bila masuk ke Tiongkok.
Akibatnya, daya saing US$ di pasar nilai tukar cenderung turun, dan beralih pada mata uang yang dirasa lebih aman, yakni yen-Jepang dan franc-Swiss, di samping emas yang selama ini dikenal sebagai safehaven asset.
Sayangnya hal tersebut juga diikuti dengan risiko investasi di negara berkembang, termasuk Indonesia yang juga meningkat. Akibatnya sentimen negatif terhadap rupiah, yang sempat menyentuh Rp 13.288 per US$ pada 26 Januari, terus terjadi dan menyebabkan terus berada di level Rp 13.700 - Rp 13.800 per US$ hingga tulisan ini ditulis (29/3).
Walau di satu sisi depresiasi rupiah dipandang sebagai salah satu keuntungan bagi sisi ekspor, namun nyatanya dalam dua bulan pertama tahun 2018, neraca perdagangan Indonesia selalu mencatatkan nilai defisit.
Di samping itu, perlu dilihat bahwa depresiasi rupiah telah mendorong kenaikan harga Indeks Harga Perdagangan Besar (IHPB) Kelompok Barang Impor sebesar 8,6% (yoy) pada bulan Februari dan sepertinya akan terus meningkat seiring dengan depresiasi rupiah terhadap US$.
Terlebih, karakteristik barang-barang impor dalam negeri merupakan barang-barang yang dipergunakan dalam proses produksi. Lihat saja, lima golongan barang (HS 2 Digit) impor terbesar selama Januari dan Februari 2018 adalah mesin dan pesawat mekanik; mesin dan peralatan listrik; besi dan baja; plastik dan barang dari plastik; serta minyak dan gas. Karenanya ketakutan akan kenaikan inflasi dalam negeri didorong oleh kenaikan harga barang impor sepertinya akan menjadi kenyatan.
Terlebih, produk-produk tersebut berasal dari AS (khususnya mesin dan peralatan listrik) dan negara-negara yang mata uangnya terapresiasi terhadap US$, sebut saja euro dan baht-Thailand. Apalagi, biasanya dampak kenaikan inflasi, yang didorong oleh kenaikan harga barang impor, tampaknya baru akan tercermin dalam 2-3 bulan kemudian, yakni sekitar bulan Mei ataupun Juni mendatang.
Dorongan dari sisi Permintaan
Sayangnya, bulan Mei dan Juni mendatang merupakan periode puasa Ramadhan dan Lebaran, yang secara siklus merupakan periode puncak inflasi dalam negeri. Lihat saja dalam tiga tahun terakhir, pada 2015 tingkat inflasi tertinggi terjadi pada bulan Juli dengan angka 7,3% (yoy); Juni 2016 di angka 4,4% (yoy); begitupun di bulan Juni 2017 yang berada di angka 4,4% (yoy).
Walau pada waktu-waktu tersebut kenaikan harga lebih didorong oleh kenaikan kelompok inflasi harga yang diatur pemerintah (administeredprice) di angka 1,7% (mtm) pada Juli 2015; 0,7% (mtm) di bulan Juni 2016; dan 2,1% (mtm) pada bulan Juni 2017. Namun, tampaknya pada tahun ini juga akan didorong oleh inflasi dari kelompok barang bergejolak (volatile goods). Di mana di dalamnya akan mengakomodasi kenaikan inflasi yang berasal dari barang-barang produksi impor.
Di satu sisi, ketakutan akan perang tarif yang dilakukan oleh Tiongkok dan AS yang tampaknya akan menaikkan harga barang-barang di kedua pihak, diharapkan akan menjadikan kedua negara memindahkan tujuan perdagangan mereka ke negara lain. Semoga juga ke Indonesia, sebagai negara dengan penduduk terbesar keempat dunia saat ini.
Walaupun begitu, realitas akan kemungkinan kenaikan inflasi dalam waktu dekat sepertinya segera menjadi kenyataan, didorong dari sisi biaya (supply side) dan juga dari sisi permintaan (demand side).
Lebih lanjut, hal ini juga mengingat kenaikan inflasi merupakan sinyal utama dari kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga acuan Bank Indonesia (BI-7 Day RRR) di masa depan.
Fikri C Permana, Ekonom PT Pemeringkat EfekIndonesia
🌹
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The global economy is set to grow at a faster clip than anticipated in 2018, due mostly to lower tax rates in the United States, but tensions over trade threaten to derail months of synchronized global expansion, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said on Monday.
The Institute, a global financial industry association, lifted its forecast for global growth in 2018 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.5 percent as it boosted its growth view on the U.S. economy for the current year to 2.9 percent. The U.S. economy grew 2.3 percent in 2017 according to IIF. It’s previous 2018 forecast, before tax cuts were enacted late last year, was for the U.S. economy to grow 2.4 percent in 2018. “You have the U.S., where there is important fiscal stimulus because of tax reform, and this is going to boost consumption and investment,” said Sergi Lanau, deputy chief economist at IIF. According to the report, faster U.S. growth is “the key driver of the upward revision.” However, the synchronized growth that the global economy saw through 2017 for the first time in a decade is showing fissures, as exporters see pressure due to uncertainty over global trade. Lanau pointed to recent weak economic data out of Germany as evidence of the effect of trade uncertainty. German exports plunged unexpectedly in February, posting their biggest monthly drop in more than two years. Also, softening data on new export orders in Japan and Korea are “consistent with the idea that there is some uncertainty around what trade policies will look like down the road,” Lanau said. The trade measures announced so far are relatively small so the economic impact is not big, he added, but they cause concern in markets and could delay investment and consumption. Besides trade tensions, the IIF sees the central risk to global growth in a potential spike in inflation, specifically in the United States. However, Lanau said, oil prices are the key driver for U.S. inflation and “our view is that in the second half of the year oil prices will moderate, especially because when prices go up shale producers in the U.S. ramp up production.” The low likelihood of even faster monetary policy tightening in developed economies in the near term brings down the risk to emerging markets, the report said. Among the largest emerging market economies, the report highlights the continued growth in Brazil after the steep recession in 2015-2016, with the sizable fiscal deficit as the main risk to their outlook of 2.7 percent growth in 2018 China is seen growing at a marginally lower pace of 6.7 percent compared to 6.9 percent growth last year, while India is seen accelerating to 7.9 percent from 6.4 percent in 2017. IIF also debuted its forecast for 2019 global growth at a stable 3.4 percent from the 3.5 percent forecast for 2018. Reporting by Rodrigo Campos
🍇
kontan: Part of the minutes of the 2018 MARCH FOMC MEET: "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Recent data suggest that growth rates of household spending and business fixed investment have moderated from their strong fourth-quarter readings. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have continued to run below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have increased in recent months but remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The economic outlook has strengthened in recent months. The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to move up in coming months and to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely. In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data."
🍁
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Harga karet tergelincir dan berakhir melemah pada perdagangan hari ini, Rabu (11/4/2018), terbebani kekhawatiran lesunya permintaan untuk komoditas tersebut.
Harga karet untuk pengiriman September 2018, kontrak teraktif di Tokyo Commodity Exchange (Tocom), ditutup melemah 0,87% atau 1,60 poin di level 181,90 yen per kilogram (kg).
Pagi tadi harga karet dibuka stagnan di posisi 183,50, setelah mengalami penguatan 1,21% atau 2,20 poin pada akhir perdagangan Selasa (10/4).
Menurut Naohiro Niimura, mitra di perusahaan riset Market Risk Advisory, tanda-tanda ekonomi China melambat berpotensi melemahkan permintaan untuk karet.
Laju inflasi China mundur dari level tertingginya dalam empat tahun pada bulan Maret 2018, sedangkan inflasi produksi melambat untuk bulan kelima berturut-turut.
Berdasarkan data biro statistik China, indeks harga konsumen (consumer price index/CPI) naik 2,1% pada Maret 2018 (year-on-year/yoy), lebih rendah dari perkiraan ekonom dalam survei Bloomberg yang mencapai 2,6% serta CPI pada Februari sebesar 2,9%.
Sementara itu, indeks harga produsen (producer price index/PPI) naik 3,1% pada Maret dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya, lebih rendah dari proyeksi sebesar 3,3% dalam survei Bloomberg dan raihan sebesar 3,7% pada Februari.
“Meski demikian, penurunan dibatasi pidato Xi Jinping yang bernada dovish pada Selasa [10/4), sehingga memberi kelegaan bahwa perang dagang antara Amerika Serikat (AS0 dan China dapat dihindari,” lanjut Niimura, seperti dikutip Bloomberg.
Sejalan dengan karet, harga minyak West Texas Intermediate terpantau tergelincir dan turun 0,24% atau 0,16 poin ke level US$65,35 per barel di New York Mercantile Exchange pada pukul 13.52 WIB.
Pergerakan indeks Nikkei 225 juga berakhir di zona merah dengan turun 0,49% atau 107,22 poin dan berakhir di level 21.687,10, setelah ditutup menguat 0,54% atau 116,06 poin di posisi 21.794,32 pada perdagangan Selasa (10/4).
Turut menekan karet, nilai tukar yen hari ini terpantau menguat 0,11% atau 0,12 poin ke posisi 107,08 per dolar AS pada pukul 14.02 WIB.
Pergerakan Harga Karet Kontrak September 2018 di Tocom
Tanggal
Harga (Yen/Kg)
Perubahan
11/4/2018
181,90
-0,87%
10/4/2018
183,50
+1,21%
9/4/2018
181,30
+1,12%
6/4/2018
179,30
+1,70%
5/4/2018
176,30
-1,84%
Sumber:Bloomberg
🍇
financial post : U.S. stocks ended the week with deep selloff, leaving them lower for the five days as the White House’s latest trade bluster rattled global financial markets.
The S&P 500 Index plunged more than two per cent and all 30 members of the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated as President Donald Trump ordered a review of additional tariffs, which prompted an aggressive response from China.
Fresh attempts by White House officials to tone down the bluster failed to calm nerves, with the CBOE Volatility Index back above 21. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin added to the anxiety by saying there’s a “level of risk” the spat could worsen.
Trump said the market turmoil was short-term “pain,” but insisted the outcome would leave the U.S. in a better position. The president’s top economic adviser said the U.S. and China are holding “back-channel discussions” to resolve an escalating trade dispute that has unsettled global financial markets. China earlier said no talks were ongoing.
The trade tensions overshadowed the latest U.S. jobs report, which showed hiring cooled by more than forecast in March. The renewed sabre rattling provided a bookend to a week that started with equities tumbling amid amplified rhetoric. That gave way to a three-day rally after White House officials signalled the president’s tough talk was part of a negotiating plan.
“It’s bad when this happens on a Friday, because then people get freaked out over the weekend,” Donald Selkin, New York-based chief market strategist at Newbridge Securities Corp, said by phone. “The worst thing you want to see is a bad market late on a Friday.”
🌴
KONTAN.CO.ID - JAKARTA. Wall Street naik merespons janji Presiden China Xi Jinping untuk memangkas tarif. Selasa (10/4), Dow Jones Industrial Average melonjak 428,9 poin atau 1,79% ke lvel 24.408.
Indeks S&P 500 menguat 43,71 poin ke 1,67% ke 2.656,87. Nasdaq Composite bahkan melambung hingga 2,07% atau 143,96 poin kembali ke 7.094,30.
Harga saham Boeing dan Caterpillar naik lebih dari 3% karena kekhawatiran perang dagang mulai mereda. Dalam pidato di Boao Forum kemarin, Presiden Xi mengungkapkan akan membuka ekonomi, menurunkan tarif impor mobil, serta menegakkan hak kekayaan intelektual dan mengurangi bea masuk produk konsumer.
"Pidato Xi menunjukkan sinyal untuk trading dengan risiko lebih tinggi. Inilah yang menyebabkan pasar saham naik," kata Mariann Montagne, portfolio manager Gradient Investment kepada Reuters.
Harga saham Facebook pun melonjak 4,5% setelah CEO Mark Zuckerberg memulai testimoni di hadapan Kongres. Ini adalah kenaikan harian terbesar saham Facebook dalam dua tahun terakhir.
Pasar masih diselimuti sentimen positif setidaknya hingga akhir bulan. Analis memperkirakan, laba emiten penghuni S&P 500 akan naik 18,5% pada kuartal pertama tahun ini. Akhir pekan nanti, beberapa bank besar seperti Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase dan Wells Fargo akan merilis laporan keuangan.
🍜
BOAO, KOMPAS.com - China berencana merombak portfolio investasinya. Penasihat bank sentral China, Senin (9/4/2018) menyatakan, rencananya China akan menginvestasikan dananya dengan bijak. Yakni dengan investasi atas cadangan modal di aset riil. Di sisi lain, obligasi pemerintah Amerika Serikat (AS) dinilai sudah tak layak lagi untuk dibeli. "Kami negara dengan penghasilan rendah sekaligus pemilik kekayaan tinggi. Kami harus memanfaatkan modal dengan lebih baik. Daripada berinvestasi di utang pemerintah AS, lebih baik berinvestasi dalam aset nyata," ujar Direktur Lembaga Penelitian Ekonomi Nasional dan anggota Komite Kebijakan Moneter People Bank of China (PBOC) Fan Gang, seperti dikutip Kontan.co.id dari Reuters. Fan mengatakan, beban utang China merupakan masalah serius meski ini tidak akan mengarah ke krisis keuangan. Sebab sebagian besar merupakan utang domestik, yang bisa diimbangi dengan tabungan bank sentral China. Utang tersebut harus ditanggung sebagai akibat pananasnya ekonomi sebelumnya. "Masalah ini serius, kami perlu membersihkannya. Kami perlu membatasi risiko keuangan, " ujar Fan. Beban utang China yang sempat meningkat menimbulkan kekhawatiran karena berpotensi memicu krisis keuangan. Fan mengatakan, rasio tabungan China 44 persen dari PDB. Bagi dia, ini sudah cukup sebagai bantalan untuk menghadapi risiko keuangan. China juga masih ada waktu menstabilkan rasio leverage. Fan, pada Minggu (8/4/2018) bilang, China berusaha mengatasi ketegangan perdagangan dengan Amerika Serikat. Meskipun AS merasa tertekan dengan kebangkitan China. Senjata perang dagang Fan mengatakan Amerika Serikat akan mengambil langkah-langkah yang dapat menimbulkan perang dagang atau menghalangi investasi China di negara itu. Cara tersebut untuk menahan perkembangan pesat China. Peneliti pemerintah dalam forum Boao mengatakan bahwa China tidak mungkin menjual kepemilikan obligasi US treasury dalam skala besar sebagai taktik perdagangan melawan Amerika Serikat. "Mengenai apakah China akan mengurangi cadangan devisanya, bagaimana pembuat kebijakan berpikir, saya tidak tahu. Saya pribadi percaya kemungkinannya sangat kecil," kata Zhang. China memutar dana sebesar 1,17 triliun dollar AS di US Treasury per akhir Januari 2018. Ini menjadikan China sebagai kreditor asing terbesar AS, sekaligus pemilik obligasi pemerintah kedua terbesar di AS, setelah Federal Reserve. Data PBOC per Minggu (8/4) memperlihatkan cadangan devisa China 3,14 triliun dollar AS per Maret 2018. Berita ini diambil dari Kontan.co.id dengan judul: China berencana mengalihkan investasi dana dari US treasury ke aset lain
Laporan Wartawan Tribunnews.com, Apfia Tioconny Billy
TRIBUNNEWS.COM, JAKARTA - Harga Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM) jenis premium dan solar dipertahankan tidak naik sejak April 2016 dan dipastikan tidak naik hingga 2019.
Adapun sejak 2016 lalu, harga Premium khusus penugasan sebesar Rp 6.450 per liter, sedangkan solar Rp 5.150 per liter.
Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) menjelaskan penetapan tidak adanya kenaikan harga untuk melindungi daya beli masyarakat disaat harga minyak dunia terus melonjak.
"Pemerintah melindungi daya beli masyarakat dan daya saing industri, sehingga harga-harga tersebut tidak naik meski ada tren kenaikan harga minyak dan batubara global," ungkap Kepala Biro Komunikasi Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM), Agung Pribadi, Jumat (6/4/2018).
Pemerintah juga berkomitmen tidak menaikan harga listrik semua golongan hingga 2019 meskipun harga minyak dan batubara sebagai bahan bakar energi primer pembangkit relatif meningkat.
"Ini bukti Negara hadir. Jadi tidak benar apabila ada isu mengenai kenaikan tarif listrik dan BBM," kata Agung.
JAKARTA okezone - Bursa saham Asia diperdagangkan bervariasi pada hari Jumat, karena reli Wall Street pada penutupan kemarin gagal diterjemahkan usai Presiden AS Donald Trump mengusulkan tarif tambahan baru untuk produk China.
Melansir CNBC, Jumat (6/4/2018), Trump menginstruksikan ke pejabat perdagangan AS untuk mempertimbangkan tarif tambahan baru untuk produk asal China yang masuk ke AS senilai USD100 miliar.
Menurut Trump, langkah ini sebuah langkah yang tepat mengingat untuk membalas China. Meskipun, Trump masih membuka pintu untuk negosiasi.
Perwakilan Perdagangan AS Robert Lighthizer mengatakan, tarif tambahan tersebut tidak akan dilaksanakan sampai proses komentar publik disimpulkan.
Hal ini membuat indeks saham acuan Jepang, Nikkei bergerak landai 0,16% dan Topix naik tipis 0,15%. Sementara itu, indeks saham acuan Korea Selatan, Kospi turun 0,7%.
Indeks saham acuan Australia, ASX 200 sedikit berubah pada awal perdagangan, dengan indeks terakhir lebih tinggi hanya 0,01%
Indeks saham AS berjangka jatuh menyusul perkembangan terkait perdagangan terbaru, dengan Dow Jones industrial average futures jatuh lebih dari 300 poin. S&P 500 dan Nasdaq berjangka juga berada di bawah tekanan.
Sebelumnya, pasar saham AS dan Eropa mengalami penguatan di sesi terakhir karena kekhawatiran perdagangan di kalangan investor menurun di sesi terakhir. Dow naik hampir 1% dan pan-Eropa Stoxx 600 naik 2,4% pada penutupan Kamis.
Keprihatinan investor atas retorika perdagangan AS-China telah menjadi fokus dalam sebulan terakhir. Pelaku pasar berada di tepi atas ketegangan perdagangan yang berpotensi memicu perang dagang antara dua ekonomi terbesar di dunia.
Sebelumnya, China pada Rabu juga telah mengumumkan rencana untuk tarif tambahan pada 106 produk AS. Itu terjadi setelah pemerintahan Trump merilis daftar impor China yang dapat ditargetkan dengan tarif yang diusulkan.
"Pasar mencerna fakta bahwa sebagian besar pembicaraan tarif perdagangan sulit tidak mungkin menghasilkan tindakan yang akan mengganggu pertumbuhan global," kata Kepala strategi mata uang dan kepala ekonomi internasional di Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Richard Grace.
(dni)
🌳
cnbc: New orders for U.S.-made goods rebounded in February, boosted by strong demand for transportation equipment and a range of other products, pointing to a strengthening manufacturing sector.
Factory goods orders increased 1.2 percent, nearly unwinding January's revised 1.3 percent decline, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders rising 1.7 percent in February after a previously reported 1.4 percent drop in January. Orders surged 7.9 percent on a year-on-year basis in February.
Orders for transportation equipment soared 7.0 percent, lifted by a 26.2 percent jump in the volatile orders for civilian aircraft. There were also increases in orders for machinery, which rose 1.2 percent after slipping 0.2 percent in January.
Orders for mining, oil field and gas field machinery climbed 1.8 percent. Orders for motor vehicles shot up 1.5 percent. Orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components surged 3.4 percent while bookings for computers vaulted 3.5 percent.
Manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of U.S. economic activity is being supported by strong domestic and global demand, but a shortage of skilled workers and capacity constraints could hurt factory output.
A survey on Monday showed a slight ebb in sentiment among manufacturers amid rising concerns over labor shortages and the supply chain. Manufacturers also reported that tariffs on steel and aluminum imports imposed by President Donald Trump in early March were raising prices, "causing panic buying" and "leading to inventory shortages for non-contract customers."
Trump imposed 25 percent tariffs on steel imports and 10 percent for aluminum to shield domestic industries from what he has described as unfair competition from other countries.
The Commerce Department revised February orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which are seen as a measure of business spending plans, to show them rising 1.4 percent instead of the 1.8 percent jump reported last month.
Orders for these so-called core capital goods fell 0.3 percent in January. Shipments of core capital goods, which are used to calculate business equipment spending in the gross domestic product report, increased 1.4 percent in February as reported last month.
Core capital goods shipments were unchanged in January.
🍊
JAKARTA sindonews - Pertumbuhan sektor manufaktur China pada bulan Maret 2018 meningkat melebihi perkiraan sebelumnya setelah pihak berwenang mencabut pembatasan polusi musim dingin. Ditambah produksi pabrik baja hidup kembali setelah aktivitas konstruksi semakin bertambah. Seperti dilansir Reuters, Sabtu (31/3/2018) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) yang dirilis hari ini naik menjadi 51,5 pada Maret atau lebih tinggi dari bulan sebelumnya Februari yang berada di level 50,3. Bahkan jauh di atas angka 50 poin yang memisahkan pertumbuhan dari kontraksi secara bulanan. Analis yang disurvei oleh Reuters telah memperkirakan bakal lebih tinggi, namun kenaikannya tipis menjadi 50,5. Data ini menunjukkan bahwa ekonomi China telah mempunyai banyak momentum untuk kembali berada dalam jalur positif seperti diprediksi oleh para analis. Meski begitu mereka harus menyelaraskan dengan pertumbuhan global yang tengah bersitegang seiring munculnya kebijakan protesionis. Pertumbuhan pada Februari menjadi yang terendal dalam satu setengah tahun, meski banyak analis menduga hal itu berkaitan dengan liburan tahun baru Imlek dan penurunan tajam konsumsi. Survei Maret menunjukkan produsen bakal semakin tumbuh karena permintaan musiman yang datang dari dalam negeri maupun dari luar. Pusat Informasi Logistik China yang mengomentari angka PMI, mengatakan pihaknya memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi kuartal pertama menjadi sekitar 6,8%. Sedangkan pada awal tahun ini, para ekonom yang sempat disurvei oleh Reuters mengungkapkan akan naik tipis sekitar 6,6%. Perusahaan-perusahaan besar melihat peningkatan kecil dalam pertumbuhan, sementara aktivitas perusahaan kecil merayap setelah menyusut pada bulan Februari. Sentimen positif datang dari ekspor membaik dari yang diperkirakan dalam dua bulan pertama tahun ini, terutama untuk produk teknologi serta segmen industri China yang tumbuh paling cepat. Meskipun sub PMI untuk manufaktur hi-tech menurun di bulan Maret, pertumbuhan tetap solid. Namun, eskalasi tajam dalam ketegangan perdagangan dengan Amerika Serikat mengaburkan prospek untuk industri berat "ekonomi lama" China dan perusahaan teknologi "ekonomi baru". Di sisi lain seperti diketahui AS belum lama ini menerapkan tarif tinggi pada impor baja dan aluminium pekan lalu untuk menjadi sintimen negatif.
(akr)
🍐
ABC news: The Founding Fathers left one legacy not celebrated on Independence Day but which affects us all. It's the national debt.
The country first got into debt to help pay for the Revolutionary War. Growing ever since, the debt stands today at a staggering $11.4 trillion — equivalent to about $37,000 for each and every American. And it's expanding by over $1 trillion a year.
The mountain of debt easily could become the next full-fledged economic crisis without firm action from Washington, economists of all stripes warn.
"Unless we demonstrate a strong commitment to fiscal sustainability in the longer term, we will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently told Congress.
Higher taxes, or reduced federal benefits and services — or a combination of both — may be the inevitable consequences.
The debt is complicating efforts by President Obama and Congress to cope with the worst recession in decades as stimulus and bailout spending combine with lower tax revenues to widen the gap.
Interest payments on the debt alone cost $452 billion last year — the largest federal spending category after Medicare-Medicaid, Social Security and defense. It's quickly crowding out all other government spending. And the Treasury is finding it harder to find new lenders.
The United States went into the red the first time in 1790 when it assumed $75 million in the war debts of the Continental Congress.
Alexander Hamilton, the first treasury secretary, said, "A national debt, if not excessive, will be to us a national blessing."
Some blessing.
Since then, the nation has only been free of debt once, in 1834-1835.
The national debt has expanded during times of war and usually contracted in times of peace, while staying on a generally upward trajectory. Over the past several decades, it has climbed sharply — except for a respite from 1998 to 2000, when there were annual budget surpluses, reflecting in large part what turned out to be an overheated economy.
The debt soared with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and economic stimulus spending under President George W. Bush and now Obama.
The odometer-style "debt clock" near Times Square — put in place in 1989 when the debt was a mere $2.7 trillion — ran out of numbers and had to be shut down when the debt surged past $10 trillion in 2008.
The clock has since been refurbished so higher numbers fit. There are several debt clocks on websites maintained by public interest groups that let you watch hundreds, thousands, millions zip by in a matter of seconds.
The debt gap is "something that keeps me awake at night," Obama says.
He pledged to cut the budget "deficit" roughly in half by the end of his first term. But "deficit" just means the difference between government receipts and spending in a single budget year.
This year's deficit is now estimated at about $1.85 trillion.
Deficits don't reflect holdover indebtedness from previous years. Some spending items — such as emergency appropriations bills and receipts in the Social Security program — aren't included, either, although they are part of the national debt.
The national debt is a broader, and more telling, way to look at the government's balance sheets than glancing at deficits.
According to the Treasury Department, which updates the number "to the penny" every few days, the national debt was $11,518,472,742,288 on Wednesday.
The overall debt is now slightly over 80% of the annual output of the entire U.S. economy, as measured by the gross domestic product.
By historical standards, it's not proportionately as high as during World War II, when it briefly rose to 120% of GDP. But it's still a huge liability.
Also, the United States is not the only nation struggling under a huge national debt. Among major countries, Japan, Italy, India, France, Germany and Canada have comparable debts as percentages of their GDPs.
Where does the government borrow all this money from?
The debt is largely financed by the sale of Treasury bonds and bills. Even today, amid global economic turmoil, those still are seen as one of the world's safest investments.
That's one of the rare upsides of U.S. government borrowing.
Treasury securities are suitable for individual investors and popular with other countries, especially China, Japan and the Persian Gulf oil exporters, the three top foreign holders of U.S. debt.
But as the U.S. spends trillions to stabilize the recession-wracked economy, helping to force down the value of the dollar, the securities become less attractive as investments. Some major foreign lenders are already paring back on their purchases of U.S. bonds and other securities.
And if major holders of U.S. debt were to flee, it would send shock waves through the global economy — and sharply force up U.S. interest rates.
As time goes by, demographics suggest things will get worse before they get better, even after the recession ends, as more baby boomers retire and begin collecting Social Security and Medicare benefits.
While the president remains personally popular, polls show there is rising public concern over his handling of the economy and the government's mushrooming debt — and what it might mean for future generations.
If things can't be turned around, including establishing a more efficient health care system, "We are on an utterly unsustainable fiscal course," said the White House budget director, Peter Orszag.
Some budget-restraint activists claim even the debt understates the nation's true liabilities.
The Peter G. Peterson Foundation, established by a former commerce secretary and investment banker, argues that the $11.4 trillion debt figures does not take into account roughly $45 trillion in unlisted liabilities and unfunded retirement and health care commitments.
That would put the nation's full obligations at $56 trillion, or roughly $184,000 per American, according to this calculation.
By Danielle Kurtzleben, Staff Writer Jan. 28, 2011, at 3:11 p.m.
U.S. News & World Report
The 10 Countries With the Most Debt
AS THE UNITED STATES inches closer to its current $14.3 trillion debt ceiling, policymakers are renewing the public debate over government borrowing and spending. Earlier this year, White House economic adviser Austan Goolsbee warned that, if the ceiling is not raised, "The impact on the economy would be catastrophic. I mean, that would be a worse financial economic crisis than anything we saw in 2008." Many top Republicans, meanwhile, are more cautious about such an increase. South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham has expressed cautious support for raising the ceiling, but also has advocated for decreasing government spending to 2010 levels. South Carolina's junior Republican senator, Jim DeMint, is even more hawkish on the subject, calling for the passage of a balanced budget amendment. [See a slide show of the 10 countries with the most debt.]
Even accounting for inflation, the total U.S. public debt--the amount of treasury securities held outside the government, plus federal obligations for programs like Social Security--has increased more than fourfold since 1990, when it stood at just over $3 trillion. [See the 10 states with the largest budget shortfalls.]
While the United States total public debt is indeed the largest in the world, a broader context shows that other countries face even more dire debt situations. One way to put debt in perspective is to compare it to gross domestic product, or GDP. The debt-to-GDP ratio is one primary indicator of a country's economic health; a lower ratio is generally seen as more favorable, as it shows that a country is producing enough to eventually be able to repay its debts. According to figures from the International Monetary Fund, Japan has the largest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world, with government debt more than twice the size of its GDP. Also notable are Greece and Iceland, which have both suffered major recent financial crises and both have government debts that exceed their annual GDPs. The U.S. ratio of 92.7 percent is nearly 20 percentage points away from inclusion in the top 10 countries with the worst debt-to-GDP ratios, listed below:
CountryDebt as Percent of GDP (2010 est.)
Japan225.9
St. Kitts and Nevis196.3
Lebanon139.0
Jamaica135.7
Greece130.2
Eritrea129.7
Grenada119.1
Italy 118.4
Iceland115.6
Barbados111.6
Of course, many countries with such high ratios, such as the Caribbean nations of Jamaica, and Barbados, are not among the world's economic powerhouses. A more apples-to-apples comparison is to look at the United States debt situation within the context of the other largest world economies. Among the 10 countries with the largest GDPs, the U.S. ranks third in terms of debt as a percentage of GDP, behind Japan and Italy. One major outlier on the list is China, whose 2010 GDP is estimated to be the world's second-largest, at roughly $5.7 trillion. The country's debts, however, only equal 19.1 percent of its GDP--well below the rates of nearly all other major world economies.
CountryGDP (2010 est., USD)Debt as Percent of GDP (2010 est.)
United States$14.6 trillion92.7
China$5.7 trillion19.1
Japan$5.4 trillion225.9
Germany$3.3 trillion75.3
France$2.6 trillion84.2
United Kingdom$2.3 trillion76.7
Italy$2.0 trillion118.4
Brazil$2.0 trillion66.8
Canada$1.6 trillion81.7
Russia$1.5 trillion11.1
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2010
🌸
dw.com: Germany'sunemployment rateticked downwards in March, hitting 5.3 percent in seasonally adjusted terms, according to data released on Thursday by the country's Federal Employment Agency (BA).
That means the number of jobless people in Germany fell below 2.5 million in March, representing 19,000 fewer unemployed people from the month before. Compared with the same month a year ago, the jobless number fell by 204,000.
Analysts said the figures were buoyed by a generally strong domestic and international economic performance.
"Demand for new employees remains at high levels," read the report. The overall number of unemployed currently stands at 2.458 million, BA said.
Germany has recorded robust economic expansion in recent months, causing some to raise concerns about an overheating of the economy. The country's gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by at least 2.7 percent this year, which would be the strongest pace since 2011.
The low unemployment is also expected to put upward pressure on wages.
After a decade of wage restraint on the part of German labor unions, they are now seeking to capitalize on the jobs boom by pushing for salary increases in wage talks with employers.
🌰
HK Standard: Germany has cut its debt load thanks to a strong economy and the diminishing burden of bailing out banks during the financial crisis.
The Bundesbank national central bank said Thursday that debt fell to 64 percent of annual economic output by the end of 2017, from 68 percent in 2016. That’s getting closer to the 60 percent ceiling established under the criteria associated with the shared euro currency.
Most of the decline came not from government thrift, but from working off shaky financial assets dumped on the taxpayers through "bad banks” as the government bailed out financial institutions that suffered crippling losses.
Germany has also been running slight budget surpluses, despite complaints from unions and some economists that it ought to spend more on infrastructure and other investment.
Meanwhile, unemployment in Germany fell below 2.5 million in March amid a seasonable upswing.
The Federal Labor Agency said the unadjusted rate fell to 5.5 percent in March from 5.7 percent the month before, with the number of unemployed dropping by 88,000 to 2.46 million.
Compared with the same month a year ago, the number of people unemployed in Europe’s largest economy fell by 204,000.
Adjusted for seasonal factors, the jobless rate fell one percentage point to 5.3 percent month-on-month.
The labor agency said there were 778,000 vacancies in March, an increase of 86,000 compared with the same month in 2017. -AP
🌷
REUTERS: Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.9 percent annual rate in the final three months of 2017, instead of the previously reported 2.5 percent, the Commerce Department said in its third GDP estimate for the period on Wednesday. That was a slight moderation from the third quarter’s brisk 3.2 percent pace.
The upward revision to the fourth-quarter growth estimate also reflected less inventory reduction than previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had expected that fourth-quarter GDP growth would be revised up to a 2.7 percent rate.
There are signs that economic activity slowed further in the first quarter, with retail sales falling in February for a third straight month. Housing data have been generally weak and the trade deficit hit a more than nine-year high in January.
Estimates of the first-quarter GDP growth rate are currently just below 2.0 percent. Still, analysts believe the economy will hit the Trump administration’s 3 percent annual growth target this year, driven by a $1.5 trillion income tax cut package and a planned increase in government spending.
That could keep the door open to slightly more aggressive interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve this year. The U.S. central bank raised rates last week and forecast at least two more hikes for 2018. The Fed also lifted its economic growth projections for this year and 2019.
The economy grew 2.3 percent in 2017, an acceleration from the 1.5 percent logged in 2016.
The government also reported on Wednesday that after-tax corporate profits increased at a 1.7 percent rate in the fourth quarter after rising at a 5.7 percent pace in the third quarter.
The government said while provisions of the income tax overhaul that came into effect in January had no effect on corporate profits for current production, they had an impact on net cash flow in the fourth quarter.
An alternate measure of growth, gross domestic income, rose at a 0.9 percent rate in the October-December period. GDI expanded at a 2.4 percent rate in the third quarter.
The average of GDP and GDI, also referred to as gross domestic output and considered a better measure of economic activity, increased at a 1.9 percent rate in the fourth quarter. That followed a 2.8 percent rate of growth in the prior period.
Prices of U.S. Treasuries pared gains after the data. U.S. stock index futures were mixed while the dollar .DXY was stronger against a basket of currencies.
ROBUST CONSUMER SPENDING
Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, was revised up to a 4.0 percent rate in the fourth quarter from the 3.8 percent pace reported last month. That was the quickest pace since the fourth quarter of 2014 and followed a 2.2 percent rate of growth in the July-September period.
Imports grew at an upwardly revised 14.1 percent pace instead of the previously reported 14.0 percent rate. That was the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2010 and overshadowed a rise in exports driven by weakness in the dollar.
The resulting trade deficit sliced off 1.16 percentage points from GDP growth last quarter, the most in a year, after adding 0.36 percentage point in the third quarter. Trade will likely remain a drag on GDP growth in the first quarter.
The trade deficit widened sharply in January. A separate report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday showed the goods trade deficit rising slightly in February.
While robust consumer spending curbed the accumulation of inventories, the slowdown in inventory investment was not as steep as previously reported.
Inventory investment rose at a rate of $15.6 billion in the fourth quarter instead of the previously reported $8.0 billion pace. Inventories subtracted 0.53 percentage point from GDP growth after adding 0.79 percentage point in the prior period.
Inventories could contribute to growth in the first quarter. The Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that both wholesale and retail inventories increased solidly in February.
Growth in business spending on equipment was revised slightly down to an 11.6 percent rate from the 11.8 percent pace published last month. That was still the best performance since the third quarter of 2014.
Investment in homebuilding increased at a 12.8 percent rate, rather than the previously reported 13.0 percent pace, after contracting for two straight quarters. Momentum likely slowed in the third quarter amid weak home sales.
Government spending grew at a 3.0 percent rate, revised up from a 2.9 percent pace. That was the strongest pace since the second quarter of 2015.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao
🌲
Merdeka.com - Tak banyak yang tahu, negara dengan pertahanan nomor satu di dunia ini juga memiliki utang terbanyak di dunia. Jumlah utangnya sebesar USD 19.974 miliar atau setara Rp 274.000 triliun dengan persentase utang dari seluruh negara di dunia 31,8 persen.
Bahkan AS juga pernah meminta dana pada Saudi sebesar USD 4 miliar atau setara Rp 55 triliun untuk mempercepat keberangkatan pasukan AS ke Suriah.
2. China
Merdeka.com - Utang di China juga terbilang besar ke-3 di dunia. Jumlah utang USD 4.976 miliar atau setara Rp 68.000 triliun, dengan persentase utang dari seluruh negara di dunia 7,9 persen. Karena saking banyaknya, memaksa para pengusaha China untuk menjual sebagian asetnya.
Seperti Wang Jialin, orang terkaya di China pada 2015. Dia siap melepaskan beberapa sebagian bisnis propertinya di seluruh dunia. Lalu pemerintah setempat juga mengumumkan agar mereka membatasi investasi luar negeri perusahaan China, khususnya sektor perhotelan, real estate, hiburan dan olahraga.
3. Yunani
Merdeka.com - Negara ini terancam bangkrut akibat utang yang menggunung. Nilai utangnya mencapai 323 miliar atau lebih dari 175 persen produk domestik bruto (PDB). Sebanyak 66 persen utang Yunani atau sebesar 214 miliar merupakan dana talangan atau bailout yang merupakan patungan Jerman, Perancis, Italia, Spanyol, Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) dan negara-negara UE lainnya.
Lalu Yunani terancam bangkrut karena gagal membayar utang sekitar Rp 22 triliun ke IMF pada 30 Juni 2015 lalu. Kondisi 'negara para dewa' itu sampai sekarang masih tertatih-tatih menyelesaikan krisis ekonomi yang membelit mereka.
4. Spanyol
Merdeka.com - Negeri matador ini juga sempat bangkrut akibat krisis ekonomi yang menimpa negaranya. Pada 2012, IMF menyatakan Spanyol sebenarnya telah bangkrut, tapi membantunya dengan meminjamkan USD 125 miliar pada bank-bank Spanyol.
Spanyol pernah meminta penyelamatan finansial dan dana bantuan dari Portugal, Irlandia, dan Portugal. Saat itu Spanyol membutuhkan dana sebanyak 100 juta euro untuk mendorong dan menghidupkan kembali sejumlah bank di sana.
Namun pinjaman dari IMF ini justru dinilai menambah utang Spanyol. Menurut miliarder terkaya di dunia Jim Rogers, dana talangan tersebut hanya menambah utang Spanyol. Masalahnya adalah terlalu banyak utang yang ditanggung Spanyol, menambahnya lagi dengan pinjaman dalam jumlah besar hanya mempercepat kebangkrutan Spanyol.
5. Jepang
Merdeka.com - Negeri Sakura ini ternyata terjerat utang sebesar USD 11.813 miliar atau setara Rp 162.000 triliun, dengan persentase utang dari seluruh negara di dunia 18,8 persen. Meskipun begitu, Jepang terbilang sering meminjamkan dana ke Indonesia.
Menurut data BI, negara Nippon itu masih menjadi negara yang paling sering memberikan utang ke Indonesia. Sepanjang 2017, total utang dari Jepang mencapai USD 13,9 miliar atau Rp 187 triliun.
🍔
cnn.com: Main Street and Wall Street are bracing as the United States prepares to levy more tariffs on China.
In the next 15 days, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will publish a list of products that his team intends to hit with tariffs. It's not clear how high the individual tariffs will be.
The United States also plans to impose new investment restrictions and take action against China at the World Trade Organization.
1. The Trump administration is turning its tough talk on trade into action this year.
2. Chinese officials are warning that they will retaliate with tariffs on US exports to China. They haven't been specific yet, though.
3. Investors, economists and policymakers are worried about a China-US trade war that could embroil the global economy.
4. Americans buy lots of Chinese-made goods. Prices will likely go up for shoppers. How much is anyone's guess.2
So there's a lot at stake, from Wall Street to your local Walmart.
Trump administration officials say fears of a trade war are overblown. And the tariffs are essentially delivering on a campaign promise: Trump told voters he would get tough on China, accusing it of stealing US jobs.
The $50 billion question is whether Trump's tariffs, and the likely Chinese retaliation, will create or kill more American jobs.
What does China have to say about this?
China sharply warned Trump again on Tuesday.
"A trade war does no good to anyone. There is no winner," China's Premier Li Keqiang said at a press conference in Beijing.
China can push back on the United States. For example, it is one of the biggest buyers of US crops, including soybeans or sorghum. China could put a tariff on those, or decide to buy more soy from places like Brazil and Argentina.
China is also the biggest creditor of the United States: It owns more US government bonds than any other country. And it recently cut some of its US debt holdings, though investors don't currently expect China to immediately dump its US debt.
In August, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer launched an investigation into Chinese theft of US intellectual property, including software, cell phone apps and technology patents.
The US economy is driven by businesses that provide services like technology companies. So China's theft of intellectual property hits at a real strength in the US economy.
The United States focused on four allegations by American companies against China. The companies allege:
1. Chinese firms force them into partnerships, then steal their technology and eventually end the joint venture.
2. Chinese companies are using government funds to steal American tech secrets and innovation.
3. China uses "cyber intrusions" into US commercial networks to spy on US commerce.
4. American companies operating in China don't have the same property rights that Chinese firms do.
The Trump administration said Thursday it found ample evidence that China is guilty of each accusation.
Trump invoked a rarely used 1974 trade law to justify the case. President Reagan used the law 49 times during his administration, but it gradually fell out of practice after the World Trade Organization was created in 1995. It's one of Trump's many tools to hit other countries with tariffs without congressional approval.
In this particular case, trade experts widely agree with the Trump administration that China has cheated and stolen, and that it should pay a price. The administration's diagnosis is correct, economists say. The remedy is where people differ.
— CNN's Steven Jiang and Tim Schwarz contributed reporting from Beijing. Jeremy Diamond contributed reporting from Washington.
— Correction: An earlier version of this story incorrectly said that Ronald Reagan was the last president to invoke the Trade Act of 1974. It was last used by President Barack Obama in 2010, although President Reagan was most famous for invoking it.
CNNMoney (New York)First published March 21, 2018: 4:07 PM ET
🍚
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks slumped on Thursday as President Donald Trump’s move to impose tariffs on up to $60 billion of Chinese imports drove fears about the impact on the global economy, fueling the biggest percentage declines in Wall Street’s three major indexes since they entered correction territory six weeks ago. Trump signed a presidential memorandum that will target the Chinese imports only after a consultation period. China will have space to respond, reducing the risk of immediate retaliation from Beijing. But after equities recovered somewhat from earlier lows, selling pressure resumed on Wall Street heading into the close as investors fretted over the potential scale of U.S tariffs and possible impact on global trade. “There’s too much negative sentiment right now,” said John Carey, portfolio manager at Amundi Pioneer Asset Management in Boston. “It’s possible that it will be rough sledding for a while. I don’t see anything on the horizon that will reassure people that things are just great.” Major industrials slumped. Plane maker Boeing Co lost 5.2 percent, Caterpillar Inc dropped 5.7 and 3M Co lost 4.7. The three were among the biggest drags on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The S&P industrials sector plunged 3.28 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 724.42 points, or 2.93 percent, to 23,957.89, the S&P 500 lost 68.24 points, or 2.52 percent, to 2,643.69, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 178.61 points, or 2.43 percent, to 7,166.68. The losses marked the biggest daily percentage drop for each of the major indexes since Feb. 8, when the Dow and S&P confirmed a market correction from their Jan. 26 highs. Selling was broad, with only the defensive utilities 0.44on the plus side, up 0.44 percent, out of 11 major S&P sectors.
The CBOE Volatility Index, the most widely followed barometer of expected near-term volatility in the S&P 500, finished up 5.48 points at 23.34, its highest close since Feb. 13.23.34 U.S. treasury prices gained as investors sought out safe havens. Benchmark 10-year notes last rose 23/32 in price to yield 2.8244 percent, from 2.907 percent late on Wednesday. The drop in yields weighed on financial stocks, which were down 3.70 percent, making them the worst performing of the major sectors.
Another decline in shares of Facebook Inc, down 2.7 percent, continued to weigh on the broader market and the tech sector, the best performing S&P group for this year. The S&P technology index fell 2.69 percent on fears of greater regulation in the wake of the Facebook data leak. Facebook Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg said he was open to additional government regulation and happy to testify before the U.S. Congress. AbbVie Inc tumbled 12.8 percent after the drugmaker said it would not seek accelerated approval for its experimental lung cancer treatment based on results from a mid-stage study.
Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 4.51-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 4.09-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and 19 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 36 new highs and 59 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 7.77 billion shares, compared to the 7.17 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. Additional reporting by April Joyner; Editing by Leslie Adler
☕
JAKARTA sindonews- Bank Indonesia (BI) menyatakan kenaikan tingkat suku bunga acuan Amerika Serikat (Fed Fund Rate) pada 21 Maret 2018 telah sesuai perkiraan. Bank sentral AS tersebut menaikkan tingkat suku bunga acuannya sebesar 25 basispoins (bps) dari 1,5% menjadi 1,75%. Kepala Departemen Komunikasi BI, Agusman mengungkapkan, pertumbuhan ekonomi global 2018 diperkirakan meningkat, meski terdapat beberapa risiko yang perlu dicermati. Peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi global bersumber dari perbaikan ekonomi negara maju dan negara berkembang yang terus berlanjut. "Di negara maju, pertumbuhan ekonomi AS pada 2018 diperkirakan lebih tinggi ditopang oleh investasi dan konsumsi yang menguat seiring dampak stimulus fiskal. Kenaikan suku bunga Fed Fund Rate sebesar 25 bps pada 21 Maret 2018 sesuai dengan perkiraan BI," katanya di Gedung BI, Jakarta, Kamis (22/3/2018). The Fed Naikkan Suku Bunga Menjadi 1,75% Ke depan, pihaknya memperkirakan proses normalisasi kebijakan moneter AS akan berlanjut dengan suku bunga The Fed yang akan kembali meningkat. Sementara itu, ekonomi Eropa juga diperkirakan tumbuh lebih baik, didukung oleh perbaikan ekspor dan konsumsi serta kebijakan moneter yang akomodatif. Di negara berkembang, ekonomi China diprediksi tetap tumbuh tinggi didorong oleh kenaikan konsumsi di tengah perlambatan investasi, khususnya real estat, seiring proses rebalancing ekonomi. "Prospek pemulihan ekonomi global yang membaik tersebut akan meningkatkan volume perdagangan dunia yang berdampak pada tetap kuatnya harga komoditas global, termasuk minyak pada 2018," imbuh dia. Namun demikian, katanya, terdapat sejumlah risiko perekonomian global yang tetap perlu diwaspadai. Pertumbuhan ekonomi AS yang lebih tinggi dapat mendorong kemungkinan kenaikan The Fed yang lebih cepat dari perkiraan semula. "Sementara itu, kecenderungan penerapan inward-oriented trade policy di sejumlah negara berpotensi menimbulkan retaliasi dari negara lain yang dapat menurunkan volume perdagangan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia," tandasnya. (ven)
🍀
FORBES : China's National Bureau of Statistics quietly released provincial GDP figures on Monday. Quietly, because the data don't quite add up. As in previous years, the national growth rate calculated by adding up all of the provincial figures -- 8.1% -- is higher than the actually reported national growth rate of 6.9%.
That longstanding problem may be on the way out. China's provinces have been told to quit chasing inflated targets, and several have in fact reduced their growth targets for 2018. Publicly acknowledged fabrications of GDP statistics in Inner Mongolia and Tianjin seem to have been reflected in their 2017 statistics.
China's 2017 GDP per capita and GDP growth by province (calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics and other data)
The rest of the country's figures seem broadly reasonable. Though China's provincial growth figures may be somewhat inflated, and some of them are seriously unreliable, most of them probably do reflect genuine differences in growth rates across regions. Take off a point or two across the board, but it still makes sense to compare provinces against each other.
Eleven other provinces reported growth rates above 10%, including most of China's rich eastern coastal provinces. China's largest province, southeastern Guangdong, reported 10.2% growth to bring its GDP per capita to nearly $13,000. That's still far below the level of neighboring Hong Kong ($44,000), but parts of Guangdong are catching up fast.
Salvatore Babones
Rural Shanxi and Guizhou provinces were China's national growth champions in 2017, based on calculations from figures released Monday by China's National Bureau of Statistics.
However the poor Dongbei region, northeast of Beijing on the border with Russia and North Korea, is falling further behind. While the so-called Jing-Jin-Ji region surrounding the nation's capital surges ahead, the neighboring heavy industrial provinces of the Dongbei continue to struggle with difficult industrial restructuring.
The Dongbei's difficulties reflect the most striking thing about China's provincial GDP map: the huge gap between the eastern coastal provinces and the rest of the country. Shanghai and Beijing, with around $20,000 per capita GDP, are starting to approach the levels of neighbors like Taiwan ($24,000) and South Korea ($30,000).
Per capita output in the Dongbei is less than half that level. North China (Huabei) and northwest China (Xibei) are doing even worse. Rural Gansu province in the heart of the Xibei has a GDP per capita less then one-fifth that of Beijing. And with an annual growth rate of less than 5%, it won't be catching up anytime soon.
Salvatore Babones
China's richest coastal regions were five times as wealthy as its poorest inland province in 2017, based on calculations from figures released Monday by China's National Bureau of Statistics.
China's massive regional disparities -- more than twice as large as those between U.S. states -- call out for central government policies to address them. In some ways China is working hard to knit the country more closely together, for example with its world-class high speed rail network. In other ways, China's rich eastern cities are pulling up the ladder behind them, as they declare themselves "full" and tell rural migrants to move elsewhere.
As GDP growth slows throughout China, it will become more and more difficult for people to enjoy President Xi Jinping's Chinese dream of a "moderately prosperous society." Many of those lucky enough to hold legal residency in China's eastern provinces are already living the Chinese dream, or soon will be. Those unlucky (hundreds of) millions who live in the north and west may have much longer to wait.
🍎
NEW YORK - Pasar saham Amerika Serikat (AS) mulai pulih dari aksi jual yang dipimpin saham Facebook. Investor bersiap untuk kenaikan suku bunga dan adanya perang tarif antara Amerika Serikat dengan China semakin jelas.
The Federal Reserve diperkirakan akan meningkatkan suku bunga sebesar 0,25 basis poin pada akhir pertemuan. Meski begitu, pasar lebih fokus pada seberapa agresif bank sentral akan dengan kebijakan moneter.
Pedagang saat ini mengharapkan dua kenaikan suku bunga lebih akhir tahun ini, meskipun mereka mengatakan para pembuat kebijakan dapat menetapkan nada hawkish dengan memperkirakan empat peningkatan dalam proyeksi mereka.
Indeks Nasdaq 100 turun 6,25 poin, indeks Dow Jones turun 11 poin, sementara indeks S&P 500 naik 2,25 poin. Indeks Komposit Nasdaq .IXIC dan indeks teknologi S&P 500.SPLRCT keduanya turun lebih dari 2%, penurunan terbesar hariam sejak 8 Februari.
Saham Facebook (FB.O), yang menjadi penyebab utama penurunan tersebut, turun 0,15% pada perdagangan perdana setelah penurunan 6,8% pada perdagangan kemarin, seiring adanya laporan bahwa data penggunanya disalahgunakan.
Saham Apple (AAPL.O), Alphabet (GOOGL.O), Netflix (NFLX.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O) dan Amazon (AMZN.O) naik antara 0,3% dan 0,7%.
Di sisi lain, pengenaan tarif diperkirakan mencapai USD60 miliar untuk impor China, dengan menargetkan teknologi, telekomunikasi dan kekayaan intelektual.
Saham perangkat lunak bisa mendapat tekanan, setelah Oracle (ORCL.N) melaporkan pendapatan kuartalan di bawah perkiraan Wall Street pada penjualan yang mengecewakan dari bisnis cloud-nya. Saham Oracle pun turun 8,9% di perdagangan premarket.
(mrt)
🍕🍕
KONTAN.CO.ID - JAKARTA. Pasar valuta sedang mengamati beberapa mata uang yang kemungkinan akan terpengaruh perang dagang. Ketika pasar mengkhawatirkan efek penerapan tarif impor baja dan aluminium oleh pemerintahan Presiden Amerika Serikat (AS) Donald Trump serta kemungkinan pembalasan oleh China, pasar uang tampaknya belum banyak terpengaruh.
Hari ini, para menteri keuangan negara G20 akan bertemu. Pasar mata uang pun menunggu apakah diplomasi negara-negara ini bisa memecahkan masalah antara AS dan negara-negara lain. Mata uang biasanya sangat terpengaruh dengan kebijakan dagang.
Misalnya saat pemerintahan Presiden Barack Obama menaikkan tarif impor baja China pada Mei 2016, indeks dollar turun lebih dari 2% dalam sebulan. Begitu pun ketika Presiden George Bush menaikkan tarif impor baja untuk Uni Eropa pada Maret 2002. Nilai tukar dollar AS anjlok 6% dalam tiga bulan.
Kontroversi dagang teranyar Trump muncul di tengah volatilitas mata uang global yang mereda pada Februari lalu. Menurut perhitungan volatilitas Deutsche Bank, volatilitas mata uang berada di titik terendah dalam beberapa bulan hingga Februari lalu.
Alhasil, kini investor menunggu tanda-tanda peringatan di pasar valuta. Beberapa valuta telah bergerak seiring ancaman dagang. Mata uang dollar Kanada melemah. Nilai tukar yen menguat terbatas, karena yen telah menguat hingga 6% terhadap dollar sejak awal tahun ini.
"Omongan soal perang dagang saat ini ya, memang hanya omongan. Sulit menghitung efeknya ketika pasar seolah mengacuhkannya," kata Russel Silberston, currencies manager Investec Asset Management yang mengelola sekitar US$ 140 miliar aset.
Silberston menambahkan, pasar uang belum menampakkan tanda-tanda terpengaruh. "Jangan salah, pasar uang menghitung prospek perang dagang ini sebagai risiko," kata dia kepada Reuters.
Efek perang dagang terhadap mata uang akan signifikan karena volatilitas yang rendah sebelumnya mendorong investor mengambil strategi risiko tinggi. Posisi spekulasi pada mata uang emerging market berada di titik tertinggi dalam beberapa tahun terakhir.
"Saya masih kagum karena tidak ada reaksi di mata uang Asia. Tampaknya mata uang kawasan ini menunggu pembalasan China," kata Richard Benson, co-head portfolio investment Millenium Global, perusahaan currency investment manager di London.
Benson mengatakan, mata uang Asia yang saat ini berada di kisaran tertinggi dalam beberapa tahun terakhir pun belum terpengaruh. Dia menilai, risiko terbesar perang dagang akan menghadang mata uang eksportir besar Asia, termasuk won Korea Selatan, dollar Taiwan, dollar Australia, dan dollar Singapura.
Won dan dollar Singapura saat ini diperdagangkan di sekitar level tertinggi terhadap dollar AS dalam tiga tahun terakhir.
Tak cuma mata uang Asia, Eropa pun berpeluang tertekan. Krone Swedia menghadapi masa-masa sulit. ING menyebut, Swedia merupakan negara dengan ekonomi paling terbuka kedua dalam kelompok G10, negara paling kaya berdasarkan rasio perdagangan dan PDB.
Sedangkan menurut Bank of America Merrill Lynch, dollar Kanada paling berpeluang tertekan. Di sisi lain, dollar AS dan dollar Selandia Baru pun rentan. Sementara euro dan swis franc berpeluang menguat.
Pasar menilai, ekonomi global akan melewati krisis perang dagang akibat tarif impor Trump ini. Pasalnya, perdagangan global mulai tumbuh lagi. Ekonomi global pun diperkirakan mencapai level tertinggi dalam enam tahun terakhir.
Banyak negara akan melindungi industri lokal ketika pertumbuhan ekonomi sulit. Tapi, penerapan tarif impor Trump muncul ketika mesin ekonomi dunia bergerak, yakni AS, Eropa, dan China.
Inilah salah satu penyebab pasar mata uang tampak lebih tenang menghadapi perang dagang. David Bloom, head of global currency research HSBC justru yakin, para pejabat AS menilai pelemahan dollar akan menjadi solusi untuk memangkas defisit neraca dagang yang membengkak.
Rencana proteksionisme membawa dollar AS melemah dalam jangka pendek, terutama terhadap euro dan yen. Tapi, ketika pertumbuhan global turun atau pasar keuangan dilanda aksi jual, dollar AS juga akan diuntungkan oleh statusnya sebagai mata uang cadangan devisa.
Mata uang yang jelas di atas angin adalah yen. "Jika ada perang dagang, yen adalah mata uang safe haven yang jadi pilihan," kata Manuel Oliveri, FX strategist Credit Agricole.
🍀
NEW YORK okezone- Saham-saham di Wall Street memperpanjang kerugian mereka pada akhir perdagangan Rabu (Kamis pagi WIB), karena para investor mencerna sejumlah laporan ekonomi yang secara umum negatif.
Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average turun 248,91 poin atau 1,00 persen menjadi ditutup pada 24.758,12 poin. Indeks S&P 500 kehilangan 15,83 poin atau 0,57 persen menjadi berakhir di 2.749,48 poin. Indeks Komposit Nasdaq berkurang 14,2 poin atau 0,19 persen menjadi ditutup di 7.496,81 poin.
Perkiraan awal penjualan ritel dan jasa-jasa makanan di AS untuk Februari 2018 mencapai 492 miliar dolar AS, turun 0,1 persen dari bulan sebelumnya, gagal memenuhi konsensus pasar untuk kenaikan 0,4 persen, Departemen Perdagangan mengatakan pada Rabu (14/3).
"Penjualan ritel terus mengecewakan, terutama komponen-komponen tiket terbesar mobil dan furnitur. Perkiraan PDB akan direvisi turun lagi," kata Chris Low, kepala ekonom FTN Financial, dalam sebuah catatan.
Dalam laporan terpisah, departemen tersebut mengatakan bahwa persediaan produsen dan perdagangan diperkirakan mencapai 1.917 miliar dolar AS pada Januari, naik 0,6 persen dari angka Desember.
Sementara itu, Indeks Harga Produsen untuk permintaan akhir naik 0,2 persen pada Februari, disesuaikan secara musiman, sesuai dengan perkiraan pasar, Departemen Tenaga Kerja AS melaporkan pada Selasa (13/3).
Pada basis yang tidak disesuaikan, indeks permintaan akhir meningkat 2,8 persen untuk 12 bulan yang berakhir pada Februari.
Para investor juga terus memantau Gedung Putih, setelah Presiden Donald Trump memecat Menteri Luar Negeri AS Rex Tillerson dan menggantikannya dengan Kepala CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) Mike Pompeo.
(rhs)
🌼
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Harga karet berbalik rebound pada perdagangan siang ini, Rabu (14/3/2018) ditopang data ekonomi China yang positif.
Harga karet untuk pengiriman Agustus 2018 di Tokyo Commodity Exchange (Tocom), terpantau menguat 0,57% atau 1,1 poin ke level 193,40 yen per kilogram (kg) pada pukul 10.36 WIB.
Pagi tadi, karet juga dibuka menguat 0,52% atau 1 poin ke level 193,30 yen, setelah ditutup di zona merah dengan pelemahan 0,21% atau 0,4 poin ke level 192,30 yen per kg pada Selasa (13/3).
Analis dari broker komoditas Yutaka Shoji, Gu Jiong mengatakan penguatan harga karet hari ini ditopang oleh data ekonomi China serta penguatan harga minyak mentah.
Dikutip dari Bloomberg, tingkat produksi industri dan pertumbuhan investasi China secara tak terduga meningkat dalam dua bulan pertama tahun ini di tengah permintaan global yang kuat.
Berdasarkan data Biro Statistik Nasional China yang dirilis hari ini, output industri naik 7,2% pada Februari dibandingkan bulan yang sama tahun sebelumnya, angka ini lebih tinggi dari proyeksi dalam survei Bloomberg yang mencapai 6,2%.
Sementara itu, penjualan ritel naik 9,7% bulan ini dari tahun sebelumnya, sedikit di bawah perkiraan sebesar 9,8%, sedangkan investasi aset tetap tidak termasuk rumah tangga pedesaan meningkat 7,9%.
Sementara itu, harga minyak West Texas Intermediate terpantau menguat 0,16% atau 0,1 poin ke level US$60,81 per barel di New York Mercantile Exchange pada pukul 11.03 WIB.
Adapun nilai tukar yen saat ini terpantau menguat 0,12% atau 0,13 poin ke level 106,45 per dolar AS pada pukul 11.16 WIB.
Pergerakan Harga Karet Kontrak Agustus 2018 di TOCOM
Tanggal
Harga (Yen/Kg)
Perubahan
14/3/2018
(10.36 WIB)
193,40
+0,57%
13/3/2018
192,30
-0,21%
12/3/2018
192,70
+1,53%
9/3/2018
189,80
-0,99%
8/3/2018
191,70
-0,05%
Sumber:Bloomberg
🍁
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA--Sejumlah bursa global mengalami penguatan pada perdagangan akhir pekan seiring dengan menguatnya bursa Amerika Serikat.
Pada penutupan perdagangan Jumat (9/3), Dow Jones Industrial Average naik 440,53 poin atau 1,77% menjadi 25.335,74. Indeks S&P 500 naik 47,6 poin atau 1,74% menjadi 2.786,57, sedangkan Nasdaq Composite bertambah 132,86 poin atau 1,79% menjadi 7.560,81.
Indeks FTSEurofirst 300 pan-Eropa berakhir naik 0,41%. Adapun, indeks saham MSCI di seluruh dunia meningkat 1,12%, atau kenaikan terbesar sejak 23 Februari 2018.
Pasar saham emerging markets naik 1,06 persen. Semalam, indeks MSCI Asia Pasifik di luar Jepang ditutup 0,95% lebih tinggi, sementara Nikkei Jepang naik 0,47%.
Kepala Strategi Investasi Brown Harriman Brothers di Newyork Scott Clemons menyampaikan, peningkatan bursa AS diddukung dengan data tenaga kerja yang cukup kuat.
"Namun, pertumbuhan upah yang mengecil membawa sentimen dovish terhadap Federal Reserve," ujarnya seperti dikutip dari Reuters, Sabtu (10/3).
Upah per jam AS pada Februari 2018 hanya naik menurun menuju 0,1% dari sebelumnya 0,3%. Hasil tersebut juga di bawah estimasi konsensus sebesar 0,2%. Padahal, data tenaga kerja ini menunjukkan tingkat inflasi, yang menjadi salah satu pertimbangan Fed dalam mengerek suku bunga.
🎂
JAKARTA okezone- Kondisi perekonomian global pada saat ini yang berdampak kepada koreksi pasar saham di berbagai lokasi merupakan waktu yang tepat bagi investor untuk menyesuaikan portofolio investasi mereka di pasar saham dan obligasi.
"Dengan koreksi pasar yang terjadi saat ini lebih disebabkan faktor sentimen daripada fundamental yang dapat mempengaruhi kinerja perusahaan, kondisi ini memberikan momentum bagi para investor khususnya bagi para calon investor di kelas aset ekuitas, saat ini adalah waktu yang paling rasional bagi investor untuk mulai menyesuaikan portofolio investasi mereka di pasar saham dan obligasi berdasarkan profil risiko mereka di tahun 2018," kata Head of Wealth Management & Retail Digital Business Bank Commonwealth, Ivan Jaya, dalam rilis yang diterima di Jakarta, Sabtu (10/3/2018).
Dengan mempertimbangkan peningkatan kinerja Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di tahun 2017 yang banyak dikontribusikan oleh kenaikan saham berkapitalisasi besar dan diikuti dengan kinerja yang cukup baik dari pasar saham dan obligasi Indonesia di awal tahun 2018, Bank Commonwealth menilai bahwa alokasi porsi investasi yang lebih besar pada kelas aset ekuitas merupakan pilihan yang obyektif untuk investasi reksa dana sepanjang bulan Maret ini.
Dia juga mengemukakan bahwa koreksi pasar yang terjadi dalam beberapa hari terakhir yang semakin diperdalam akibat respon pasar atas kebijakan pemerintah Indonesia meningkatkan subsidi memberikan kesempatan bagi para investor untuk mengevaluasi kembali portofolio investasi.
"Kebijakan pemerintah untuk meningkatkan subsidi merupakan langkah yang cukup bijak mengingat konsumsi dalam negeri saat ini belum sepenuhnya pulih terbukti dengan rilis angka pertumbuhan konsumsi rumah tangga di 2017 yang hanya naik 4,95% year-on-year," paparnya.
Menurut dia, pasar luar dan dalam negeri saat ini dipengaruhi oleh dua faktor utama yang memberikan dampak besar, yaitu kebijakan pemerintah AS untuk menaikkan tarif impor baja dan alumunium, serta kekhawatiran pelaku pasar terhadap inflasi AS meningkat pesat dan berimbas pada kemungkinan bahwa The Fed (bank sentral AS) akan lebih agresif dalam melakukan pengetatan moneter.
Sebelumnya, praktisi pasar modal Benny Tjokrosaputro mengatakan untuk menjadi seorang investor di pasar modal harus dapat menentukan profil risiko yang sanggup ditanggung.
"Untuk berinvestasi saham, harus disesuaikan kita tipe yang mana, kalau takut risiko lebih baik ke reksa dana pendapatan tetap saja," ujar Benny Tjokrosaputro yang juga Komisaris Utama PT Hanson International Tbk.
Benny menambahkan kalau ingin investasi jangka panjang bisa memilih saham emiten yang memiliki rasio harga terhadap laba per saham (Price Earning Ratio/PER) yang rendah. Dengan PER yang rendah, maka tingkat imbal hasilnya lebih baik.
(dni)
🍮
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Pergerakan tiga indeks saham acuan Amerika Serikat (AS) di bursa Wall Street berakhir menguat pada perdagangan Kamis (8/3/2018), setelah Presiden Donald Trump terlihat melunakkan pendiriannya mengenai rencana pemberlakuan tarif.
Kabar tersebut mengurangi kekhawatiran perang dagang yang telah membebani pasar selama sepekan.
Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average ditutup naik 0,38% atau 93,85 poin di level 24.895,21, indeks S&P 500 menguat 0,45% atau 12,17 poin di 2.738,97, dan indeks Nasdaq Composite berakhir menguat 0,42% atau 31,30 poin di level 7.427,95.
Dilansir Reuters, Trump mengumumkan tarif impor untuk baja dan aluminium namun dengan mengecualikan Kanada dan Meksiko. Negara-negara lainnya juga dinyatakan dapat mengajukan pengecualian terhadap pengenaan tarif impor tersebut.
“Ini adalah sesuatu yang kurang membebani dibandingkan dengan retorika pekan lalu,” kata Chuck Carlson, Chief Executive Officer di Horizon Investment Services.
“Ini adalah gagasan yang terdengar lebih lunak daripada reaksi pekan lalu ketika tidak terdengar kata pengecualian yang membuat pasar terbebani,” lanjut Carlson.
Menjelang berita yang keluar dari Gedung Putih pada Kamis (8/3) waktu setempat, S&P bergerak fluktuatif dalam kisaran ketat antara wilayah positif dan negatif karena investor tidak yakin tentang apa yang akan dikatakan Trump.
Kekhawatiran bahwa tarif akan memicu perang perdagangan global telah mendominasi pasar sejak Trump mengumumkan rencana pengenaan tarif impor baja dan aluminium pada Kamis (1/3).
Kekhawatiran tentang potensi perang dagang semakin meningkat setelah Gary Cohn, yang menentang rencana tarif impor dan mendukung perdagangan bebas, mengundurkan diri dari jabatannya sebagai penasihat ekonomi utama Trump pada Selasa (6/3).
Namun tidak semua pihak menyambut kabar terbaru dari Gedung Putih kemarin.
Saham Century Aluminium turun 7,5% setelah sebelumnya mendapatkan keuntungan dari rencana pemberlakuan tarif yang dapat mendorong harga. Saham US Steel Corp turun 2,9%, sedangkan saham AK Steel ditutup turun 4%.
Di sisi lain, Michael O'Rourke, Kepala Strategi Pasar di JonesTrading di Greenwich, Connecticut, masih khawatir tentang bagaimana kebijakan Trump dapat mempengaruhi perdagangan global.
“Trump mengubah nadanya namun tetap akan memberlakukan tarif, dan kita masih menuju arah yang salah dari perspektif kebijakan jika Anda adalah seorang globalis yang fokus pada pasar. Saya tidak akan terkejut jika dia [Trump] muncul dengan tarif yang berbeda terkait hal lain,” ujar O'Rourke.
🍁
Paul Wiseman, The Associated Press
Published Wednesday, March 7, 2018 9:41AM EST
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. trade deficit rose in January to the highest level since October 2008, defying U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to bring more balance to America's trade with the rest of the world.
The Commerce Department said Wednesday that the trade deficit rose to $56.6 billion in January, up 5 per cent from US$53.9 billion in December and the highest since October 2008's $60.2 billion trade gap. The trade deficit -- the gap between what America sells and what it buys abroad -- has risen for five straight months.
Trump rattled financial markets last week by promising to slap big tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. He blames persistent deficits on abusive practices by U.S. trading partners and on bad trade deals that put American companies at a disadvantage or encourage them to move factories overseas.
Exports fell 1.3 per cent to $200.9 billion in January, and imports were flat at $257.5 billion.
The United States ran a $76.5 billion deficit in the trade of goods, which was partially offset by a $19.9 billion surplus in services such as education and banking.
The $36 billion January deficit with China was the highest since September 2015. The trade gap with Mexico narrowed to $4.1 billion from $5.4 billion in December.
Trump upset America's allies last week by vowing to slap tariffs of 25 per cent on imported steel and 10 per cent on aluminum. Europe has threatened to retaliate with sanctions on U.S. exports of blue jeans, bourbon and Harley-Davidson motorcycles, raising the risk of a potentially destructive trade war.
"He is not afraid of getting into a trade war although that is not what we want," Treasury Steven Mnuchin said in an interview Wednesday on the Fox Business Network. "We are just looking for fair and reciprocal trade."
Trump is also demanding a rewrite of the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada in an attempt to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico and to shift more auto production north of the border.
The president views trade deficits as a sign of economic weakness and as the result of unfair practices by America's trading partners. Most economists say they are caused by bigger economic forces, mainly the fact that the United States consistently spends more than it produces.
The trade gap has continued to rise since Trump entered the White House partly because the U.S. economy is strong and American consumers have an appetite for imported products and the confidence to buy them.
🐎
AFP Published Wednesday, March 7, 2018 2:19PM EST
ctvnews: The tourism industry is booming as travellers find ever more intrepid ways of exploring the globe and receding security fears revive old favourites.
But as industry professionals descend on Berlin for the ITB fair, the world's largest travel trade show, the news isn't all good.
Some of the most popular destinations are becoming victims of their own success, leaving the sector scrambling to respond to concerns about overcrowding and environmental damage.
Here's a look at the themes expected to dominate this year's ITB, which runs from Wednesday until Sunday.
Middle East comeback
Egypt, Tunisia and Turkey all suffered steep drops in visitor arrivals in recent years after a series of terror attacks and bouts of political instability. But a period of relative calm has tempted tourists to set their fears aside and rediscover these classic destinations, lured by the promise of sun, sea and rock-bottom prices.
In Egypt alone, arrivals more than doubled in 2017, according to the World Tourist Organization.
Tunisia, badly shaken by a museum attack and beach shooting in 2015 that together killed 60 people, saw tourist arrivals jump by more than a third last year.
The Palestinian territories are tipped as an up-and-coming destination, while Israel, despite a tense security situation, has seen a spike in bookings following a no-expenses-spared promotion campaign.
Winter is coming
Some of this year's hottest destinations are also the coldest, with growing numbers of holidaymakers prepared to shiver to experience the other-worldliness of Lapland, Greenland or Antarctica, or the breathtaking colour show of the Northern Lights.
Iceland owes its unprecedented tourism boom in part to "Game of Thrones" fans eager to explore the wild landscapes that featured in the television show. In 2017, the country with fewer than 340,000 residents welcomed a staggering 2.5 million visitors.
Overtourism
While the money they bring may be welcome, the hordes of tourists in places like Iceland has sparked a backlash among locals, who complain that their nation's pristine locations are being overrun.
The grumbles have been even louder in perennially popular places like Barcelona, Amsterdam and Venice, where residents are increasingly fed up with the crowds, the strain on public infrastructure and unaffordable rents as city centre flats become Airbnb holiday lets.
Authorities have started to take notice, vowing measures to curb the influx -- and posing fresh challenges to the travel industry.
"So-called overtourism has become a major problem this year," the IPK International tourism consultancy said in a recent report. "The industry urgently needs to find answers."
Mixing business with pleasure
Flexible working hours and jobs that can be performed anywhere with wifi have blurred the lines between travelling for business or leisure.
These so-called "bleisure" travellers, mainly aged 18 to 34, are free to book a beach escape on a whim or tag a few extra days onto a business trip to do some sightseeing -- so long as their tech needs are met.
Thailand, determined to tap into these affluent digital nomads, has embarked on a major push to boost its high-speed internet infrastructure, including on its most remote and picturesque islands.
Every drop counts
Hotel guests have long been used to the little cards in the bathroom asking them to re-use their towels. But as environmental pressures grow, hotel chains and tour operators are going a step further, bringing eco-friendly travel into the mainstream.
To encourage responsible water use, it is becoming increasingly rare to find large baths in hotel rooms, even in luxury establishments, according to the specialist magazine Travel Weekly.
In drought-hit South Africa, hotels have taken action to reduce their laundry loads by switching to paper napkins and washing the linen less frequently.
In Norway, the government is planning tough new restrictions on cruise ships entering its spectacular fjords in a bid to lower harmful emissions and crack down on pollution.
🌸
marketwatch: The numbers: U.S. productivity in the fourth quarter was revised to show no gain instead of a 0.1% decline, the government reported Wednesday.
Most of the figures in the newly revised report were little changed except for a sharp increase in unit-labor costs. They were revised to show a 2.5% increase instead of 2%, potentially adding to recent worries about higher inflation.
What happened: The increase in output — or goods and services produced — was left at 3.2%. Hours worked was also unchanged at 3.3%.
Labor costs rose somewhat faster, though, reflecting in part the tightest labor market in almost 20 years. Higher labor costs are viewed by investors as a potential source of future inflation and that’s giving Wall Street the jitters.
The big picture: Productivity has been low through the nearly nine-year-old expansion and remains one of the biggest problems for the U.S. economy.
There’ some hope that the biggest reduction in corporate taxes since 1986 as well as other incentives will boost business investment and thereby productivity. But even if that happens — and it’s by no means guaranteed — it would take a while to show up.
Productivity is the key to a higher standard of living in any economy. It helps deliver more profits, higher wages and other benefits.
Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.04% and the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.26% were set to open sharply lower in Wednesday trades amid the departure of top White House economic aide Gary Cohn, who lost an internal fight to stop Trump from imposing broad steel tariffs.
🌼
Jakarta – Krisis Keuangan dalam sebuah negara diperkirakan dapat mengakibatkan kerugian negara sebesar 23,2 persen dari PDB.
Hal tersebut disampaikan oleh Ketua Dewan Komisioner Lembaga Penjaminan Simpanan (LPS) Halim Alamsyah kala menghadiri Seminar Internasional “Strengthening Infrastructure for Financial Crisis Resolution”. Oleh karena itu, LPS sebagai lembaga yang kapasitasnya untuk restrukturisasi perbankan tentu terus mengantisipasi kejadian tersebut.
“Krisis keuangan itu perlu untuk terus diwaspadai. IMF juga mencatat bahwa biaya rata-rata dari krisis keuangan, dalam hal kerugian output, adalah sekitar 23,2% dari PDB,” kata Halim di Hotel Fairmont Jakarta, Rabu 28 Febuari 2018.
Dirinya juga menyebut, pada era saat ini lembaga keuangan juga harus turut andil dalam pencegahan krisis keuangan tersebut dengan terus menjaga kesehatan kinerja perusahaannya dan terus berhati-hati dalam setiap keputusan yang diambil.
“Sebab, seiring dunia mengalami lebih banyak integrasi global dan keuangan, krisis keuangan dapat dengan mudah menular ke seluruh negara, yang dapat memperparah lebih jauh kerusakan ekonomi global,” tambah Halim.
Dirinya menjelaskan, setelah krisis terjadinya krisis keuangan Asia pada 1997, banyak negara telah mengalami perubahan struktural dalam kerangka peraturan keuangan mereka seperti protokol manajemen krisis, dan infrastruktur ekonomi, yang bertujuan untuk ekonomi yang lebih tangguh. Dan salah satu perubahan yang paling menonjol adalah kenaikan jumlah negara yang menerapkan sistem penjaminan simpanan secara eksplisit.
“Pada tahun 1974, hanya ada 12 negara dengan sistem asuransi simpanan eksplisit. Saat ini, ada 139 negara yang telah mengadopsi sistem penjaminan simpanan dan 29 negara sedang mempertimbangkan penerapan sistem,” ungkap Halim.
Selain itu, LPS sebagai bagian dari jaringan pengamanan keuangan Indonesia, juga memiliki mandat baru dalam Resolusi dan Restrukturisasi Bank melalui “Undang-Undang Pencegahan dan Penanganan Krisis Keuangan (PPKSK)” No. 9 tahun 2016. Halim menjelaskan, Undang-undang tersebut memperluas fungsi LPS untuk menjamin simpanan bank dan sebagai otoritas resolusi. INFOBANK
🐈
NEW YORK okezone- Saham-saham di Wall Street ditutup lebih rendah pada perdagangan Rabu (Kamis pagi WIB). Wall Street tertekan karena para investor mencerna data pertumbuhan ekonomi AS yang baru dirilis.
Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average anjlok 380,83 poin atau 1,50% menjadi berakhir di 25.029,20 poin. Indeks S&P 500 mengalami penurunan 30,45 poin atau 1,11% menjadi ditutup pada 2.713,83 poin. Indeks Komposit Nasdaq berkurang 57,35 poin atau 0,78% menjadi berakhir di 7.273,01 poin.
Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) AS meningkat pada tingkat tahunan sebesar 2,5% pada kuartal keempat 2017, sesuai dengan konsensus pasar, menurut perkiraan kedua yang dikeluarkan oleh Departemen Perdagangan pada Rabu (28/2). Pada kuartal ketiga, PDB riil meningkat 3,2%.
PDB riil AS meningkat 2,3% pada 2017, yang terutama mencerminkan kontribusi positif dari pengeluaran konsumsi pribadi, investasi tetap non-residensial, dan ekspor, kata departemen tersebut.
Indeks Penjualan Pending Home turun 4,7% menjadi 104,6 pada Januari dari direvisi turun 109,8 pada Desember 2017, gagal memenuhi ekspektasi pasar.
Sementara itu, para investor masih memilah-milah kesaksian dari Ketua Federal Reserve Jerome Powell. Powell mengatakan dalam kesaksian kebijakan moneter pertamanya bahwa meskipun terjadi volatilitas di pasar saham baru-baru ini, gubernur Fed masih berencana untuk menaikkan suku bunga beberapa kali sepanjang 2018.
Ketua baru Fed tersebut mengisyaratkan bank sentral bisa menaikkan suku bunga lebih dari tiga kali tahun ini jika data ekonomi dan inflasi terus terbukti sehat.
(kmj)
🐎
Rogers predicts the stock market will experience jitters until the Federal Reserve increases borrowing costs. That, he says, will be the point when stocks go up again. He said he’ll buy an agriculture index today, reiterating his view that prices of such commodities have been depressed for some time.
“I’m very bad in market timing,” Rogers said. “But maybe there will be continued sloppiness until March when they raise interest rates, and it looks like the market will rally.” bloomberg
🐋
Eurozone
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Tiga indeks saham acuan di bursa Wall Street mengalami penurunan harian terbesar sejak aksi jual melanda pasar saham tiga pekan lalu.
Bursa Amerika Serikat (AS) melemah akibat terbebani testimoni Gubernur The Federal Reserve Jerome Powell yang membangkitkan kembali kekhawatiran tentang kenaikan suku bunga lebih dari yang diperkirakan tahun ini.
Pada perdagangan Selasa (27/2/2018), Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average ditutup melemah 1,16% atau 299,24 poin di level 25.410,03, indeks S&P 500 melorot 1,27% atau 35,32 poin di 2.744,28, dan indeks Nasdaq Composite berakhir melemah 1,23% atau 91,11 poin di level 7.330,35.
Ketiga indeks tersebut membukukan penurunan persentase harian terbesarnya sejak 8 Februari.
Di depan Parlemen AS pada Selasa waktu setempat, Powell menyampaikan pandangan optimistis tentang ekonomi AS serta menyatakan sejumlah data telah memperkuat optimismenya terhadap inflasi.
Menyusul penyampaian testimoninya itu, para pelaku pasar meningkatkan spekulasi mereka atas potensi penaikan suku bunga sebanyak empat kali tahun ini oleh bank sentral AS tersebut.
Imbal hasil obligasi pun meningkat, sedangkan indeks Cboe Volatility, barometer yang menjadi acuan atas perkiraan volatilitas jangka pendek pada indeks S&P 500, naik 2,79 poin menjadi 18,59, juga kenaikan satu hari terbesar dalam hampir tiga pekan.
Penyampaian testimoni ekonomi semi-tahunan pertama oleh Powell sebagai Gubernur The Fed di depan Parlemen AS datang di saat yang sensitif untuk pasar.
Pasar telah berusaha pulih dari aksi jual baru-baru ini, yang memastikan pasar berada dalam kondisi koreksi, atau turun 10% dari rekor level tertinggi yang dibukukan pada 26 Januari.
Kekhawatiran seputar kenaikan suku bunga AS sebagian telah memicu aksi jual. Dalam naskah pernyataan yang disiapkan sebelumnya, Powell telah mengisyaratkan bahwa The Fed akan tetap mengikuti kenaikan suku bunga saat ini, namun komentarnya di depan Parlemen tampaknya mengejutkan pasar.
“Dia mengatakan bahwa ekonomi semakin kuat, yang secara halus memberi indikasi bahwa dia akan menaikkan proyeksinya untuk kenaikan suku bunga sebanyak empat kali tahun ini,” kata Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist di JonesTrading, Connecticut, seperti dikutip Reuters.
The Fed sebelumnya telah banyak diantisipasi akan menaikkan suku bunga bulan depan, dengan total tiga kali penaikan tahun ini. Para pembuat kebijakan The Fed kemudian akan merilis proyeksi baru mereka, termasuk pandangan mengenai arah kenaikan suku bunga yang pantas di masa mendatang, dalam pertemuan kebijakan bulan depan.
Di sisi lain, saham Comcast turun 7,4% setelah raksasa kabel tersebut menawarkan untuk membeli Sky senilai US$31 miliar dalam sebuah pendekatan yang tidak diminta. Saham Comcast menjadi penekan terbesar terhadap S&P 500. Adapun saham Disney turun 4,5% dan Twenty-First Century Fox turun 3%.
🐘
NEW YORK okezone - Beberapa biaya pinjaman jangka pendek pemerintah AS naik ke tingkat tertinggi dalam lebih dari sembilan tahun pada Selasa 20 Februari 2018, ketika pemerintah menghimpun USD179 miliar di pasar sekuritas untuk mendanai pengeluaran dan melakukan pembayaran utang.
Lelang menghasilkan lebih dari separuh dari persediaan surat utang pemerintah senilai USD258 miliar yang dijadwalkan dijual minggu ini, yang diproyeksikan akan menghasilkan dana segar sebesar USD48 miliar untuk pemerintah.
Jumlah penerbitan surat utang pemerintah tersebut merupakan yang terbesar kedua selama periode tiga hari, turun USD1 miliar dari rekor tertinggi pada Agustus 2010, menurut kepala ekonom Wrightson ICAP, Lou Crandall.
Kekhawatiran tentang melonjaknya ekspektasi dalam pinjaman pemerintah federal telah meningkat setelah terjadi perombakan pajak besar akhir tahun lalu, yang diperkirakan mencapai USD1,5 triliun untuk utang pemerintah.
Menambah kekhawatiran ini adalah kesepakatan anggaran AS dua tahun yang dicapai bulan ini, yang akan meningkatkan pengeluaran untuk program-program militer dan hak sebesar USD300 miliar.
Pasokan surat utang pemerintah berjangka pendek pada Selasa (20/2) telah mendapat penerimaan beragam dari para investor dan dealer.
Para analis dan pedagang mengatakan bahwa mereka lebih mementingkan permintaan untuk penjualan surat utang pemerintah lima tahun senilai 35 miliar dolar AS pada lelang Rabu (2/2) dan 29 miliar dolar AS surat utang pemerintah tujuh tahun pada Kamis (22/2).
Surat utang jangka menengah ini terpukul keras pekan lalu oleh data inflasi yang lebih kuat dari perkiraan, yang memicu taruhan Federal Reserve dapat mempercepat kenaikan suku bunga.
Imbal hasil surat utang pemerintah tujuh tahun adalah 2,817%, sedikit di bawah level tertinggi tujuh tahun pada pekan lalu, sementara imbal hasil surat utang lima tahun mencapai tertinggi delapan tahun di 2,689%.
"Permintaan bisa jadi turun-naik di sini karena (pelelangan) dua tahun tidak berjalan dengan baik," kata Mary Anne Hurley, wakil presiden pendapatan tetap di DA Davidson di Seattle Departemen Keuangan juga akan melelang USD15 miliar dalam bentuk surat utang dua tahun dengan tingkat bunga mengambang pada Rabu (21/2/2018).
Departemen Keuangan menjual USD51 miliar surat utang tiga bulan dengan suku bunga 1,63% dan USD45 miliar surat utang enam bulan dengan suku bunga 1,82%. Ini adalah jumlah rekor tertinggi yang ditawarkan dalam lelang untuk kedua surat utang tersebut, dan mereka menjual pada imbal hasil tertinggi sejak September 2008.
Departemen Keuangan juga menjual USD55 miliar dalam bentuk surat utang satu bulan dengan tingkat bunga 1,380%, dan USD28 miliar dalam surat utang dua tahun dengan tingkat bunga tetap pada imbal hasil 2,255% tertinggi sejak Agustus 2008.
(dni)
🍻
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Bursa saham Amerika Serikat ditutup melemah pada perdagangan Rabu (21/2/2018) setelah rilis risalah pertemuan Federal Reserve bulan Januari yang mendorong imbal hasil obligasi AS bertenor 10 tahun ke level tertinggi empat tahun terakhir.
Setelah Fed mempertahankan suku bunga pada bulan Januari, risalah rapat Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) menunjukkan bahwa komite penetapan suku bunga acuan AS lebih percaya diri dalam laju kenaikan suku bunga, dengan ekspektasi inflasi yang meningkat di pertumbuhan ekonomi yang membaik.
Saham awalnya bereaksi positif, dengan masing-masing indeks di Wall Street. Namun, penguatan indeks menipis karena imbal hasil obligasi naik ke level tertinggi empat tahun di 2,957%.
"Risalah rapat The Fed mengindikasikan anggota bank sentral tidak terlalu khawatir dengan inflasi, jadi itu menenangkan pasar," kata Michael Arone, kepala analis investasi di State Street Global Advisors di Boston, seperti dikutip Reuters.
"Sejak saat itu, pasar menyadari pertemuan tersebut terjadi pada akhir Januari dan sejak saat itu ada data tenaga kerja, rata-rata penghasilan per jam, serta angka inflasi yang positif, dan mereka juga mengatakan kenaikan suku bunga layak dilakukan," lanjutnya.
Probabilitas kenaikan suku bunga acuan sebesar 25 basis poin pada rapat The Fed berikutnya di bulan Maret saat ini mencapai 93,5%, menurut data Reuters. The Fed telah memperkirakan tiga kali kenaikan suku bunga di tahun 2018.
Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average turun 166,97 poin atau 0,67% ke level 24.797,78, sedangkan indeks Standard & Poor’s 500 melemah 14,93 poin atau 0,55% menjadi 2.701,33 dan Nasdaq Composite turun 16,08 poin atau 0,22% ke 7.218,23.
Setelah kekhawatiran inflasi menghantam indeks S&P 500 hingga turun lebih dari 10 persen dari level tertingginya, sejumlah saham mulai pulih dalam beberapa sesi terakhir karena imbal hasil obligasi AS berternor 10 tahun telah stabil pada kisaran 2,9%.
Prospek kenaikan suku bunga dan penurunan yang tak terduga pada penjualan rumah di AS menekan sektor real estat hingga melemah 1,81%. Sementara sektor utilitas dan telekomunikasi juga turun lebih dari 1 persen.
Volume perdagangan di bursa Wall Street mencapai 6,96 miliar saham, lebih rendah dibandingkan rata-rata 8,49 miliar saham selama 20 hari perdagangan terakhir.
Belasan negara setuju dunia mendahulukan sumbangan tahunan mereka kepada badan Perserikatan Bangsa-bangsa untuk pengungsi Palestina (UNRWA) setelah Amerika Serikat memangkas sebagian sumbangannya, kata kepala badan PBB tersebut.
Pemangkasan yang dilakukan pemerintahan Presiden AS Donald Trump itu dilihat terkait dengan pemungutan suara di PBB, yang menolak pengakuan Washington atas Yerusalem sebagai ibu kota Israel, kata kepala UNRWA Pierre Kraehenbuehl. Amerika Serikat mengatakan bulan ini akan menarik 65 juta dolar dari 125 juta dolar sumbangan yang telah direncanakan kepada UNRWA.
Badan PBB itu sendiri bertugas menjalankan kegiatan sekolah dan klinik bagi 5,3 juta warga Palestina di seluruh Timur Tengah, termasuk di Gaza dan Tepi Barat.
"Sangat jelas bahwa keputusan yang diambil oleh Amerika Serikat itu tidak terkait dengan kinerja kami," kata Kraehenbuehl dalam acara jumpa pers, mengacu pada pertemuan antara dirinya dan sejumlah pejabat tinggi AS di Washington pada November, yang dikatakannya berlangsung "dengan sangat baik".
Sebelas negara sudah setuju mendahulukan sumbangan mereka untuk mendanai program-program UNRWA dalam beberapa bulan ke depan, kata Kraehenbuehl setelah ia bertemu dengan perwakilan negara-negara donor. Menurut Kraehenbuehl, tujuh negara, yaitu Swiss, Finlandia, Denmark, Swedia, Norwegia, Jerman dan Rusia, sudah mentransfer sumbangan awal. Adapun empat negara lainnya, yaitu Belgia, Kuwait, Belanda dan Irlandia, telah menyatakan janji mereka untuk melakukan langkah serupa dalam waktu dekat.
Kraehenbuehl telah meluncurkan permohonan bantuan dana sekitar 800 juta dolar AS untuk membantu para pengungsi Palestina di Suriah, Lebanon, Jordania dan wilayah-wilayah Palestina tahun ini. Ia mengatakan bahwa UNRWA telah menerima sumbangan sebesar 360 juta dolar dari AS tahun lalu namun Washington hanya menyediakan 60 juta dolar untuk 2018. Kraehenbuehl menyebut pemangkasan oleh AS itu sebagai "perubahan yang sangat fatal dan dramatik".
🌵
KONTAN.CO.ID - JAKARTA. Dalam satu dekade terakhir, ekonomi China kian membesar dan menjelma menjadi raksasa dunia. Bukan hanya sektor riil, pasar modal Tiongkok juga makin diperhitungkan di percaturan global.
Indeks Shanghai Komposit, salah satu indeks utama di Bursa Shanghai, pada Kamis (15/2) lalu, mencatatkan kapitalisasi pasar US$ 5,10 triliun. Indeks Shenzhen Komposit, yang menjadi acuan di Bursa Shenzhen, membukukan kapitalisasi pasar US$ 3,44 triliun. Sedangkan indeks Hang Seng, yang mewakili Bursa Hong Kong, memiliki kapitalisasi pasar US$ 2,56 triliun.
Ketiga indeks itu mampu mengimbangi dominasi indeks-indeks di Wall Street, Amerika Serikat. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), misalnya, mencatatkan kapitalisasi pasar US$ 6,73 triliun.
Korporasi asal Tiongkok juga mencengkeram dunia. Mengacu daftar 100 perusahaan dengan kapitalisasi pasar terbesar di dunia versi PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) per 31 Maret 2017, China mengirimkan 10 wakilnya.
Bahkan, dua wakil Tiongkok masuk 15 besar perusahaan raksasa dunia. Tencent Holdings Ltd menduduki urutan ke-11 dengan kapitalisasi US$ 272 miliar. Adapun Alibaba Group Holding menduduki urutan ke-12 dengan kapitalisasi US$ 269 triliun.
Sedangkan lima besar perusahaan raksasa dunia masih dikuasai korporasi asal Amerika Serikat. Kelima perusahaan itu adalah Apple Inc, Alphabet Inc, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.Com Inc dan Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
🍫
JP: Newly-installed US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell pledged Tuesday to preserve the key gains made in banking regulation since the global financial crisis and continue gradual interest rate increases.
Powell, who took over as Fed chair February 5, just as Wall Street took a vertiginous dive, also said the central bank would continue to reduce its bond holdings which reached more than $4.5 trillion.
"We are in the process of gradually normalizing both interest rate policy and our balance sheet with a view to extending the recovery and sustaining the pursuit of our objectives," Powell said in remarks at a ceremonial swearing in event.
He was officially took over the helm of the Fed last week, replacing Janet Yellen, the only woman ever to lead the central bank in its 100-year history.
He credited Yellen and her predecessor Ben Bernanke for conducting monetary policy in a way to support the recovery and employment while making the financial system "incomparably stronger and safer."
Powell had been widely seen as more amendable to the President Donald Trump's deregulation agenda, but the Fed chief reiterated that he favored striking a balance between keen oversight and overregulation, while preventing a buildup of new risks.
The central bank will "preserve the essential gains in financial regulation while seeking to ensure that our policies are as efficient as possible," he said, adding that, "We will remain alert to any developing risks to financial stability."
Fed policymakers late next month are widely expected to adopt their first interest rate hike of 2018, aiming to keep ahead of an anticipated rise in inflation this year.
It will be the first monetary policy meeting led by Powell, who is not an economist but has been on the Fed board since 2012, and he will hold his first press conference after the decision is announced.
🍚
KONTAN.CO.ID - JAKARTA. Jelang rilis data inflasi yang menentukan arah suku bunga, Wall Street masih menguat. Indeks saham Amerika Serikat (AS) mencatat kenaikan dalam tiga hari perdagangan berturut-turut hingga Selasa (13/2).
Dow Jones Industrial Average akhirnya menguat 39 poin atau 0,16% ke 24.640,45 setelah sempat turun hingga 180 poin pada perdagangan yang berakhir dini hari tadi.
Indeks S&P 500 menguat 0,26% ke 2.662,94. Sedangkan Nasdaq Composite kembali ke atas level 7.000 dengan kenaikan 0,45% ke 7.013,51.
Ketiga indeks sempat memerah pada awal perdagangan. "Pasar bertransaksi dengan antisipasi penurunan," kata Robert Pavlik, chief investment strategist SlateStone Wealth. Dia menambahkan, tidak banyak penggerak pasar pada perdagangan Selasa.
Hari ini, AS akan merilis angka inflasi. Angka inflasi ini penting untuk menimbang kenaikan suku bunga acuan yang diramal terjadi bulan depan. "Rilis CPI pada hari Rabu akan menjadi CPI paling penting dalam 10 tahun, karena inflasi yang naik akan menjadi risiko terbesar rally pasar saham bertahun-tahun," kata Tom Essaye, dounder The Seven Report dalam catatan yang dikutip CNBC.
Loretta Mester, Gubernur Federal Reserve Cleveland mengatakan, penurunan pasar saham tidak akan mempengaruhi outlook ekonomi bank sentral. "Penurunan pasar saham yang terus menerus memang akan menurunkan keyakinan dan bisa menekan minat risiko dan belanja. Tapi, pergerakan pasar masih jauh dari skenario ini," kata Mester.
🌸
JAKARTA – Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) diprediksi menguat terbatas pekan ini. Koreksi yang terjadi pekan lalu diharapkan membuat indeks memiliki kesempatan untuk rebound.
“Yang menjadi masalah, indeks bursa di AS masih diprediksi dapat kembali terkoreksi. Seiring dengan potensi tersebut, ruang penguatan IHSG menjadi terbatas pada satu pekan ke depan,” ujar Direktur PT Investa Saran Mandiri Hans Kwee kepada InvestorDaily di Jakarta, akhir pekan lalu.
Volatilitas IHSG berpotensi meningkat sejalan dengan tekanan yang dialami bursa saham di Amerika Serikat, karena investor masih menanti penaikan Fed funds rate (FFR) oleh bank sentral AS, The Fed Pekan lalu, indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average di bursa AS melemah dibanding sepekan sebelumnya.
Namun, pada perdagangan terakhir Jumat pekan lalu (9/2) waktu setempat, indeks ditutup rebound dengan kenaikan 1,38% ke level 24.190,90. Sementara itu, berdasarkan data BEI, IHSG pada penutupan perdagangan saham 9 Februari 2018 melemah 39,11 poin (0,60%) ke level 6.505,52. Total kapitalisasi pasar (market cap) BEI turun menjadi Rp 7.236 triliun.
Adapun pada akhir perdagangan pekan lalu, investor asing membukukan aksi jual bersih (net sell) harian sebesar Rp 1,75 triliun. Hal ini membuat total net sell investor asing meningkat menjadi Rp 5,31 triliun secara year todate (ytd).
Hans Kwee mengatakan, pekan ini, level resistance IHSG berpeluang mencapai 6.582, sedangkan level support 6.404. “Selama belum ada sentiment yang mampu mendorong kenaikan yang signifikan, IHSG mungkin rebound terbatas. Selama satu pekan ke depan, volatilitas bursa saham AS kan masih tinggi, hal ini akan senada dengan kondisi IHSG,” papar Hans. (bersambung)
NYT: FFORESTFACH, Wales — In a 2016 referendum, Stephanie Holtom voted to leave the European Union, worried about immigration and convinced that other countries were telling the British government what to do.
But outside a supermarket recently in a large, suburban strip mall not far from the Welsh city of Swansea, Ms. Holtom conceded she might have been wrong.
“I agreed to come out of Europe, but I am beginning to have second thoughts. I think it’s a mess, and I’m sick to death of it,” said Ms. Holtom, who is retired, as she collected her shopping cart. She added that, if there were a second referendum, “people would vote to stay.”
Since a majority of Britons voted narrowly to leave the bloc more than 18 months ago, most politicians have treated a withdrawal, known as Brexit, as inviolable. Even amid signs of a slowing economy, few saw signs of a shift in public opinion.
Until now.
London may be almost 200 miles away, but people here in Wales have noticed that Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to negotiate Britain’s departure from the bloc, and to control her bitterly divided cabinet. “I think Theresa May is absolutely hopeless,” Ms. Holtom said.
As the political stalemate drags on, and with business leaders issuing ever more urgent alarms about the threats to the economy, growing public doubts are beginning to register in some opinion polls. And opponents of Brexit are quietly cultivating what they see as that rising sentiment in their campaign to soften, if not reverse, the whole process.
They even picked up support from an unexpected quarter when Nigel Farage, the former U.K. Independence Party leader and the leading proponent of Brexit, recently suggested that there might be a second referendum.
Prominent “leavers,” as supporters of Brexit are known, dismiss that possibility out of hand, but it may not be as far-fetched as they would have people believe.
Some time later this year Parliament is likely to face a fateful vote on the actual terms of any agreement Mrs. May can reach with the European Union on Britain’s withdrawal. A defeat in Parliament would prompt a political crisis, very likely topple Mrs. May and possibly prompt a general election. Potentially, that could open the way to a rethink, to new Brexit options, or to a second referendum.
That is what people like the local Swansea lawmaker, Geraint Davies, from the opposition Labour Party, are banking on. He believes the tide is turning against Brexit in Wales, where a majority opted to quit, although Wales is a big recipient of European development aid, and has several industries that might lose from Brexit.
“What I am sensing is that people who voted Brexit in good faith are now saying, ‘Hold on, that’s not what I voted for, and I want a final say,’” Mr. Davies said, listing promises made during the 2016 referendum, including one — later ruled misleading by the country’s statistics authority — that quitting would free up 350 million pounds a week, or about $486 million, for health spending.
“You should have the right to look again, and say: ‘You ordered a steak and you ended up with a bit of chewed up bacon. Do you want to accept that?’” Mr. Davies added, arguing that Britain faces higher inflation and slower growth, and that, far from getting money back, it has offered around 39 billion pounds, or about $54 billion, in divorce payments to the European Union.
Mr. Davies and others have also pounced on recent reports that the areas in Wales and central and northern England that voted most strongly for Brexit are set to suffer the greatest economic harm from the rupture.
Experts say they have detected a subtle shift, in Wales and elsewhere. Though few people admit to changing their views, there is growing support for a vote on the terms of any Brexit deal, according to Roger Awan-Scully, a professor of political science in the Wales Governance Center at Cardiff University.
“There is some change on whether there should be another referendum on the issue,” he said. “We have seen a move towards the idea of the public having a greater say.”
Hard-line supporters (and opponents) of Brexit remain steadfast in their views, but many of the less committed have yet to fully focus on what it will mean and have been turned off by the stream of complex, sometimes contradictory, reports emerging from the tortuous negotiations. “It’s a bit like the O.J. Simpson trial: It keeps going on and on and people tune out of it,” Mr. Awan-Scully added.
And with signs that public opinion is volatile and could be shifting, the political ice is starting to crack.
When Tony Blair, a former prime minister, called last month for another plebiscite, Brexit supporters derided him as a pillar of a failed, elitist, pro-European establishment.
But it was hard to say the same when Mr. Farage suggested there should be another vote. Though Mr. Farage appeared later to retreat on the idea, Arron Banks, a big financial supporter of one of the Leave campaigns, endorsed it as well. For hard-line leave supporters, a referendum is a chance to once and for all kill off the argument to stay, and precipitate a clean break with the bloc.
Pro-Europeans, by contrast, would like a plebiscite on the specific terms of any deal negotiated by Mrs. May’s government, with the option to remain in the bloc if voters prefer.
Several things would have to happen to make that a reality, including a change of government policy and, almost certainly, of prime minister.
Some say it is too late to rethink the withdrawal, given that Britain has invoked its two-year exit clause. Others say that to date the shift in British public opinion, if any, is simply not big enough, and that Brexit support remains strong outside the big cities and in many working-class communities.
But the logic of having a second referendum is compelling. The 2016 vote was a choice between leave and remain, yet was silent on the path that Britain should take thereafter.
At the two extremes, these are starkly different prospects. A so-called soft Brexit could keep Britain integrated within the European Union’s economic model and part of its single market and customs union, accepting all its rules, albeit without having a say over them.
A hard Brexit might cut most of those ties, and take the country toward a low regulation, low tax economy — “Europe’s Singapore” — for example.
The problem is that there is no specific democratic mandate for either option, or even for Mrs. May’s preferred (though probably unobtainable) idea of something in between. So any outcome is likely to be contested for years to come.
Within Mrs. May’s government, the implications of Brexit are causing concern, even as hard-line Brexit supporters step up their campaign for a clean break from the bloc.
Following the leak of a government analysis that predicted the British economy would suffer under all of the most likely scenarios, one minister, Phillip Lee, wrote on Twitter that, if the figures were anywhere near right, “there would be a serious question over whether a government could legitimately lead a country along a path that the evidence and rational consideration indicate would be damaging.”
🌲
WF: Economic recovery in the eurozone appears to have reached a turning point, with the latest Eurostat figures showing that the GDP of the 19-state bloc increased by 2.5 percent over the course of 2017. Growth was up by a substantial margin from the previous year, when the economy grew 1.8 percent, which in turn was up from the 1.5 percent growth rate of 2015.
The new momentum seen in the eurozone has been underscored by improvements in investment levels as business confidence continues to grow
While the US was on a par with the eurozone in 2016, also expanding by 1.8 percent, the eurozone expanded slightly faster this year. Notably, President Trump’s ambitious growth target of three percent was not achieved, with US growth ultimately coming in at 2.3 percent. The wider 28-state grouping of the EU matched the rates seen in the eurozone, with growth also coming in at 2.5 percent.
After years of tepid growth, the new momentum seen in the eurozone has been underscored by improvements in investment levels as business confidence continues to grow. It has also been put down to a revival in the French economy, which is ordinarily a drag on the bloc’s growth, but last year expanded at its fastest rate for seven years. The stimulus programme from the European Central Bank continues to play a supportive role in heating up economic activity, though officials have signalled that a wind-down is in sight for the next year.
Unemployment in the bloc has also been heading downwards, coming in at 8.7 percent in December of last year, which is down a full percentage point from the previous year. Another reflection of the strengthening economy is the gradually decreasing debt-to-GDP ratio in the area, which has moved from 89.7 percent in the third quarter of 2016 to 88.1 percent in the third quarter of 2017.
CHINA
bloomberg: When it comes to analyzing China, distance seems to make investors’ views of the world’s second-largest economy grow, shall we say, less fond. Whether it’s George Soros (who’s likened China to the U.S. before the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis) or Kyle Bass (who’s said the Chinese economy is built on sand) or Jim Chanos (who’s said, memorably, that China is on a “treadmill to hell”), there’s no shortage of gloomy outlooks. Over-investment, too much debt, bubbly markets, faked data, Ponzi-like financial structures—the litany of looming pitfalls seems inescapable to many investors, especially hedge funds, based in financial hubs from Connecticut to Canary Wharf.
That negativity is a sharp contrast to the majority opinion held closer to Beijing or Shanghai. There, booming consumption, a pickup in global trade, and an increasingly innovative private sector are fueling bets that China’s generation-long economic miracle still has plenty of room to run, albeit at a slower rate than the average gross domestic product growth of almost 10 percent a year since the early 1980s. “I find it scary how many self-proclaimed US based China experts w real influence have barely lived in China, barely speak Chinese and barely have a clue …” tweeted Shaun Rein, Shanghai-based founder and managing director of China Market Research Group and author of The War for China’s Wallet, on Dec. 26. Later he was on Twitter again, wagering that the “same tired group of China’s watchers will predict China’s collapse for the 40th year in a row… and they’ll be wrong for the 40th time but western media will keep quoting them breathlessly as experts.”
It's almost time for New Year's Predictions on China's economy - my prediction? Same tired group of China's watchers will predict China's collapse for the 40th year in a row... and they'll be wrong for the 40th time but western media will keep quoting them breathlessly as experts
Rein may have a point, but there are plenty of investors across the Pacific who take a longer view on China. Corporate America, for one, has long seen through the fog of gloom. Chicago-based Boeing Co. is building its first overseas “completion center” for 737 aircraft on Zhoushan Island south of Shanghai. In 2016 Walt Disney Co. opened a $5.5 billion theme park in Shanghai—its biggest-ever foreign investment. Tesla Inc. says that within the next several years it plans to begin making automobiles in China, where surging demand for electric cars contributed 15 percent of the company’s revenue in 2016. Meanwhile, in December, the world’s biggest Starbucks—all 30,000 square feet of it, about half the size of a soccer field—opened in Shanghai.
Western banks, which have long coveted the vast Chinese market but had mixed success entering it, are looking at new opportunities now that President Xi Jinping promised to open up the sector to greater foreign competition. UBS Group AG is in discussions to acquire a majority stake in its Chinese securities joint venture, and Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have signaled a desire to take majority stakes in their own Chinese ventures. BlackRock, Fidelity International, UBS Asset Management, and Man Group are among global fund managers expanding in China.
If much of the commentary on China from the West remains bearish, blame Japan. Some analysts and investors base their assessments on the assumption that China is destined to share the fate of Japan, whose three-decade boom hit a wall in the early 1990s. This supposition is questionable. China is still at a much lower stage of development than Japan; on a per-capita basis, China’s GDP in 2016 was less than 40 percent of where Japan was in 1970, according to World Bank Group data. What’s more, China is a vast, multiregional economy—not an island. That means it can keep posting world-beating growth even when some regions do turn down, as happened in 2016 and early 2017 when the industrial northeast slowed as the government pushed through an economic rebalancing that promotes consumption and services.
Illustration: Matt Chase
As China enters the lunar Year of the Dog, the gloomy bears say it’s unlikely that plans to curb loans and credit expansion can succeed without denting growth. Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, for instance, thinks government statistics have inflated GDP readings. He reckons China’s GDP growth will slow to 4.5 percent this year, whereas the more than 100-strong research team at China International Capital Corp., the country’s first Sino-foreign investment bank, thinks the economy will actually accelerate to 7 percent.
CICC downplays the negative impact of total borrowing, which has risen to more than 2.5 times China’s GDP and is generally seen as the No. 1 risk factor facing the economy. The investment bank argues that both the state sector and households have more than enough cash on hand should trouble strike. In addition, CICC says, the most indebted sector—corporates—is sitting on cash equivalent to about 40 percent of current debt. That, according to Liang Hong, the company’s chief economist, means that while government reforms to cut debt levels in China are important, they needn’t translate into negative growth.
Another point missed by the Connecticut-set mentality is this: China’s debt is largely self-funded and will remain that way as long as the country hangs on to a healthy current account surplus, according to Michael Spencer, global head of economics at Deutsche Bank AG in Hong Kong. “Hedge funds in New York have been saying for seven years it’s going to be a crisis, but it clearly hasn’t been the case,” he says. “China is not investing New York hedge fund money. It is investing Chinese home savings.”
That’s not to say the China bears don’t have legitimate concerns. The country’s total debt from the government, households, and nonfinancial companies reached 256 percent of GDP in June 2017, already surpassing that of the U.S. (250 percent), according to the Bank for International Settlements. That’s up from 146 percent a decade ago, and it marks a faster pace of debt accumulation than occurred in the U.S. during the period leading to the housing crisis. Even officials in Beijing are taking the possibility of asset-price collapse seriously: Outgoing People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan in October warned of the risk of a debt-induced Minsky Moment, and Xi has prioritized financial stability through his second term in office.
Confidence in the ability of China’s policymakers to manage the economy wavered in 2015, when an epic stock market crash and bungled exchange rate reform sent global markets into a tailspin. But more than two years on, the clear takeaway from that episode is the need to distinguish market ructions from real economic activity: Economic growth largely held up through that crisis as authorities used levers such as capital controls to stem the fallout.
For all the talk of reform, the central government retains a firm grip on the economy. The heavy fist of the state still often trumps the invisible hand of markets, credit is still channeled from state-owned lenders to state-owned firms, and local governments can still ramp up infrastructure investment at the first whiff of a slowdown. That sort of investment rationale is behind one of Xi’s signature policy initiatives—the Belt and Road initiative that Beijing says will pump $1.3 trillion into roads, ports, and other construction projects designed to connect China to trading partners across Asia and into Europe. While the state and local involvement is a plus for near-term stability, it could also be a tax on the future if capital is misallocated.
“The further away from China, the more difficult to feel all the real changes”
Banks are often identified as China’s weakest link. A deep-dive analysis by the International Monetary Fund in 2017 recommended that the nation’s lenders should increase their capital buffers to protect against any sudden economic downturn. Kevin Smith, Denver-based chief executive officer and founder of Crescat Capital LLC, says a banking implosion is inevitable; the only question is when. Smith has held short yuan bets since at least 2014, a position that helped his global macro fund gain 16 percent in 2015 when the PBOC surprised the world with its minidevaluation.
Smith was less fortunate last year when China’s economic recovery and tightening capital controls helped the yuan to rally. His fund lost 23 percent in 2017. The loss cut the fund’s annual return since its 2006 inception to 11 percent, which still outpaced the S&P 500 index’s gain of 8.8 percent during the period. Smith is undaunted. “We remain grounded in our analysis,” he says. “Credit bubbles burst. Ponzis implode. In the end, we believe China will be forced to print trillions of U.S. dollars equivalent of new money to recapitalize its banking system and bail out its depositors.” In that scenario the currency will crash, Smith says, who’s also short on various Chinese equities.
He wasn’t alone in getting the yuan bet wrong last year. Consensus estimates at the start of 2017 forecast the dollar would buy 7.15 yuan by yearend; it ended at 6.50 yuan. Headline economic data don’t tell the story of trends and developments actually taking place on the ground, from the industrial northeast to the high-tech south and the agricultural interior, says Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economics research at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. And the government’s firm hand on the tiller, he says, needs to be closely watched. “The further away students of China are located, the more easily such nuances get lost, leaving many to focus more on the risks than on the promises of the country’s economic future,” Neumann says.
Because changes across China’s extensive economy tend to be subtle and gradual, it’s often hard to get a feel for the pace of development, according to Mo Ji, Hong Kong-based chief economist for Asia ex-Japan at Amundi Asset Management, who called a bottom to China’s slowdown in late 2015, well before it was a consensus view. She’s been working for the past 13 years with the Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz on analyzing China’s economy, having first met him when she studied under him for a doctorate at Columbia University. “The further away from China, the more difficult to feel all the real changes,” Mo says.
Stephen Roach may spend a lot of time in Connecticut—he’s a senior fellow at Yale in New Haven—but he’d never be accused of being part of the Connecticut set. A former nonexecutive chairman of Morgan Stanley in Asia, Roach first went to China in 1985 and still travels there four or five times a year. He says there’s a tendency to project the West’s crisis-prone outcomes onto China. “Connecticut-based hedge funds and Washington-based politicians,” he says, “are equally guilty of this long-standing bias.”
Curran is chief Asia economics correspondent in Hong Kong. Xie is a market blogger in New York.
🍆
WASHINGTON (AP) — American consumers stepped up their borrowing by $18.4 billion in December, a solid performance that followed a massive gain the previous month.
The increase reflects gains of $5.1 billion in the category that covers credit cards and $13.3 billion in the category for auto and student loans, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday.
The overall increase followed a $31 billion surge in November as consumers took on extra credit to finance holiday shopping.
Consumer borrowing is closely followed for indications about how confident households are in taking on more debt to finance spending, which accounts for 70 percent of economic activity. In the fourth quarter, the overall economy grew at a solid 2.6 percent rate. In recent months, Americans have been increasingly confident and willing to take on more debt.
The question is whether the sharp declines in the stock market last Friday and Monday could shake that confidence. Moreover, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate three times in 2017 and indicated in December that it planned to boost rates another three times in 2018 to keep the economy from overheating now that unemployment has dropped to a 17-year low of 4.1 percent.
The five rate increases the Fed has approved over the past two years have left the central bank's key rate at a still-low range of 1.25 percent to 1.5 percent.
The overall increase in credit in December pushed the total to a record of $3.84 trillion. The monthly gain was a 5.8 percent increase in percentage terms, which followed the 9.8 percent surge in November. That had been the biggest percentage increase since a similar percentage gain in July 2011.
During the first few years of recovery from the Great Recession, Americans paid down or defaulted on debts that had been run up during the housing bubble that preceded the downturn. But in the past two years, Americans have increasingly been willing to borrow more, particularly for student loans and auto loans.
The Fed's monthly consumer borrowing report does not cover home mortgages or any other loans secured by real estate such as home equity loans.
🍧
Jakarta Post/Bloomberg: German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s bloc has concluded a coalition agreement that hands a half-dozen ministries -- including the key foreign and finance portfolios -- to her Social Democratic allies, a move that will likely bolster the country’s commitment to greater European integration.
Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union will get five ministries, including defense and economy, and the CDU’s Bavarian sister party will take three, according to a copy of the coalition agreement obtained by Bloomberg. German media reported that Social Democrat party leader Martin Schulz will serve as foreign minister, Hamburg Mayor Olaf Scholz will oversee finance, and Horst Seehofer -- chief of the Bavarian Christian Social Union -- will get interior.
While Merkel sets policy guidelines for the government as chancellor, SPD-led finance and foreign ministries will allow Schulz to make good on his pledge to deepen euro-area cooperation and reach out to France’s Emmanuel Macron, who says the 19-country currency bloc should have a joint budget and finance minister. Merkel hasn’t fully embraced the proposals, though she has said the EU needs deeper integration to be able to assert meaningful influence on the global stage.
The deal was worked out by a core of about 15 leaders and must now be approved by a broader group of roughly 90. While the pact clears a key hurdle to a fourth term for Merkel, the SPD’s pledge to let its 464,000 members vote on the agreement augurs several more weeks of uncertainty.
After more than 24 hours of talks at the CDU’s headquarters, Merkel headed home for a few hours rest before a planned press conference to outline details of the deal.
The two sides “left our barricades and resolved the conflicts,” Alexander Dobrindt, the parliamentary caucus leader of the Bavarian Christian Social Union, told reporters outside the talks.
Any coalition deal will hinge on how well Social Democratic leader Martin Schulz, the challenger Merkel defeated in September, can sell the pact to a party base that’s chafing at the idea of helping the Christian Democrats govern for the third time since 2005.
🍳
FP: We are living in strange times, but it would nonetheless be unusual if the eight-year bull market didn’t end without a cycle that favoured value stocks.
Unlike previous corrections during the bull market, this one is the result of a rate shock, as opposed to a growth scare. Fortunately, rate-induced corrections are usually shorter in duration, but it appears that this pullback will be more severe than average, as markets remained extremely volatile on Tuesday.
“Unfortunately, the volatility associated with higher rates is painful, but it is required to change market leadership away from high-multiple stocks,” said Martin Roberge, market strategist at Canaccord Genuity. “After all, with earnings growth becoming less scarce, investors should no longer be willing to pay a premium for growth.”
This stock selloff was overdue — time to lick your wounds and hunt for bargains
‘Playtime is officially over’: $4 trillion wiped out in global market meltdown
Including Monday’s 4.1 per cent decline, the S&P 500 has fallen 7.8 per cent since its January 26 high. The specific cause of Monday’s plunge may be debated for some time, as will talk about who the biggest sellers were, but nervousness had been building for weeks.
“In retrospect, a pullback may have been overdue,” said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
Even though sentiment has clearly become more stressed, and economic surprises have become less impressive, there are more positives than negatives for equities. Recession risk remains low, earnings trends are still strong, and this year should see a ramp up in buybacks, M&A, capex spending and debt reduction.
“While the sharp decline in the S&P 500 on Monday was unnerving, it is important to keep in mind that these kinds of moves have tended to be buying opportunities in the post Financial Crisis era,” Calvasina said.
The S&P 500 has experienced 15 one-day drops of three per cent of more since 2010. Six months later, the index was significantly higher the vast majority of the time, with a median gain of 12 per cent.
“We see the market selloff entirely disconnected from fundamentals,” said Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, U.S. equity strategist at J.P. Morgan. “While the sharp rise in volatility may contribute to further outflows…, we believe fundamentals should ultimately prevail as companies continue to deliver double-digit earnings growth on the U.S. tax catalyst, global synchronized growth, and a weaker U.S. dollar.”
Markets were clearly overbought and overdue for a major correction, and recent trading suggests 2018 will be very different than 2017.
Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at The Fundamental Technician, noted that last year, volatility was low, and markets trended higher with few pauses or corrections. This year, the easy money party seems to be winding down, and high valuations coupled with rising rates, may limit equity market gains.
“On the other hand, a strong economy and positive environment for earnings could help to create a floor,” Cieszynski said. “As these two forces fight it out, we could see markets move in a wide sideways trend with more volatility and less complacency for much of this year.”
It’s also important to remember what fuelled the run-up in stocks, particularly the record high for margin debt on U.S. stocks at the end of 2017.
“The sell-off in the last few days is likely to reverse this trend, and potentially accelerate it further, particularly if investors start to unwind it over concerns that we could fall further,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK.
It may sound counterintuitive, but further improvements in U.S. economic data are only amplifying investors’ concerns that a better outlook will mean accelerated interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. However, if policy makers are worried that an aggressive tightening policy could cause more problems that it is intended to solve, things could change rather quickly.
“It’s certainly been an interesting introduction for new Fed chief Jerome Powell, as he starts his tenure in the U.S. central bank hot seat,” Hewson said.
🍵
bloomberg: U.S. equity indexes climbed higher after a rocky start, and the benchmark gauge for U.S. share volatility reversed course after hitting a two-year high. Treasuries dropped and the dollar rose.
The S&P 500 Index plunged as much as 2.1 percent at the open of trading Tuesday before regaining ground. The Dow declined more than 500 points before it, too, recovered. Both are now up on the day.
Earlier, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index slumped the most since June 2016, and Japan’s Nikkei entered a correction as most of the shares on the 1,000-plus member MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined. Amid the sea of red, some safe-haven assets, including European bonds, traded higher. Treasury yields swung before nudging higher.
What began with rising bond yields became a selloff across global equity markets, as investors feared the return of inflation and higher rates that could erode profitability for companies already trading at elevated valuations. Traders are watching how the moves unfold from here -- a sustained stock slump has the potential to undermine consumer and business sentiment, crimp borrowing and so start to curtail global growth.
“I think what you have is, this is a correction, not the start of an economic recession,” said Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist of Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co.’s wealth-management unit. “Corrections occur when people are positioned wrongly and have to position for the new environment. They can be sharp, but short.”
Earlier in the day, the Cboe Volatility Index, a gauge of implied volatility for the S&P 500 Index over the next month, breached 50 to touch its highest level since the aftermath of China’s devaluation of the yuan in 2015. Since then, it has fallen to as low as 22.42.
Elsewhere, oil’s two-day slump subsided while metals fell. Bitcoin traded around $7,000 after at one point sinking below $6,000 for the first time since October.
Here are some key events scheduled for this week:
Monetary policy decisions are due in Russia, India, Brazil, Poland, Romania, the U.K., New Zealand, Serbia, Peru and the Philippines.
Earnings season continues with reports from Walt Disney, SoftBank, Sanofi, Philip Morris, Tesla, Rio Tinto, L’Oreal and Twitter.
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and New York Fed President William Dudley are among policy officials due to speak in Frankfurt and New York.
These are the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 Index rose 0.7 percent as of 10:01 a.m. New York time.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index decreased 1.3 percent.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index dipped 1.2 percent.
The MSCI Emerging Market Index sank 2.7 percent to the lowest in five weeks.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased 0.2 percent to the highest in almost two weeks.
The euro decreased 0.3 percent to $1.2331, the weakest in almost two weeks.
The British pound dipped 0.6 percent to $1.3874.
The Japanese yen declined 0.4 percent to 109.52 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed seven basis points to 2.77 percent.
Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 0.71 percent.
Britain’s 10-year yield fell two basis points to 1.534 percent, the biggest fall in almost five weeks.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.1 percent to $64.22 a barrel.
Gold fell 0.6 percent to $1,331.15 an ounce.
Copper fell 0.9 percent to $7,102 per metric ton.
Terminal users can read more on the slide in stocks in other Bloomberg stories:
Hedge Funds Now Look Prescient After Cutting Short-Vol Bets
Volatility-Targeting Funds Could Sell $225 Billion of Stocks
‘Buy the Dip’ Takes Hold at Allianz to JPMorgan as Rout Deepens
As Investors Raced to Hedge, ETF Options Trading Beat ETFs
Volatility Jump Has Traders Asking About VIX Note Poison Pill
VIX-Related ETPs Go Wild in After-Hours Trading After Rout
VIX at 38 Is Waterloo for the Beloved Short Volatility Trade
— With assistance by Adam Haigh, Samuel Potter, and Luke Kawa
🍝
The FTSE 100 fell sharply on Tuesday morning, following dramatic sell-offs across the US and Asia, sparked by inflation fears after strong US jobs data triggered a surge in bond yields.
The UK’s benchmark stock index tumbled 3.5 per cent shortly after the market open, mirroring similar losses across France, Germany and other European markets.
Earlier on Tuesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 tumbled 4.7 per cent, marking its worst fall since November 2016 and taking it to a four-month low.
On Monday, the US benchmark S&P 500 fell by more than 4 per cent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.6 per cent. Those represented the largest percentage drops in a single day since August 2011.
Traders agreed that the primary trigger for the global stock rout was a sharp rise in US bond yields after data out of the US on Friday showed wages increasing at the fastest pace since 2009.
READ MORE
Japan's stock market closes down almost 5 per cent
That, in turn, raised the prospect of higher inflation and, as a result, the possibility of higher interest rates. Markets have been propped up by massive central bank stimulus for years sending stocks to record highs on a regular basis.
Some experts also said that investors could now be jittery as a result of a change of leadership at the US Federal Reserve and the uncertainty this might introduce. Jerome Powell succeeded Janet Yellen earlier this month.
The Ultimate Cheap Flights Finder is Here!
tripsinsider.com
Popular Fossil Watch of 2018 on Promotion now
Priceza Indonesia
Book Flights Last Minute For Huge Discounts!
Lastmin-Flights
by Taboola Sponsored Links
“Let’s be clear - in the long span of financial history, this is not news,” said James Bateman, chief investment officer for the multi-asset business at fund manager Fidelity International.
“Yet in a world where the concept of a “correction” almost feels alien and where equities felt like an unstoppable one-way bet for a while, the normality of a setback can feel more painful,” he added.
He said that in the current market environment, “the money is made by keeping your head when others are losing theirs”.
The CBOE Volatility index, which is commonly referred to as the “fear index” because it measures expected near-term stock market volatility, surged by around 20 points its highest level in well over two years.
The dollar, commonly considered to be relatively safe during times of market upheaval, was steady against most currencies, though slipped slightly against Japan’s yen, also considered a safe haven.
Oil prices fell by more than 1 per cent. Like other commodities, oil is priced in dollars making it more expensive when the US currency appreciates.
🌹
TOKYO nikkei-- The rout in Asia's stock markets continued on Tuesday as risk-averse investors reacted to sharp overnight declines in the U.S. and Europe.
The Japanese market led the decline, with the benchmark Nikkei Stock Average ending the day down 4.73%, or 1,071.84 points, at 21,610.24 -- a level not seen since last October. All but two stocks -- Maruha Nichiro and Mitsubishi Motors -- among 225 in the index fell, resulting in the steepest decline since June 2016.
At one point, the Nikkei average was down by more than 7%.
Taiwan's Taiex Index did not fare much better, at one point dropping nearly than 6% to 10,300.40, an intraday low dating back to late September. South Korea's Kospi also felt the pain, dropping as much as 3.3% during the day, but pared the losses and ended down 1.5% at 2,453.31.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell 5.1%, while the H-share index, which consists of major mainland companies listed in the territory, lost 5.9% at the close. The Shanghai Composite, which tends not to follow the global trend due to the limited flow of funds, closed 3.55% lower at 3,370.652, after being the only major index to manage a slight gain on Monday of 0.7%.
Australia's All Ordinaries also continued its decline on Tuesday, sliding 3.2% to 5,930.20.
Turning to Southeast Asia, benchmark indexes in Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines fell further, dropping by nearly 3% in early trading. Shares of major index constituents were hit hard, with Singaporean bank DBS Group Holdings declining by more than 3% at one point. The Philippines index closed 0.8% lower at 8,550.42. India's Sensex Index started the day down 2.9%, with all 30 stocks comprising the index falling.
Asia investors took their cues from the record 1,175-point fall of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday. Wall Street was down by nearly 1,600 points at one point -- the biggest intraday decline in history -- largely due to soaring bond yields. The Dow finished at 24,345.75, 4.6% lower from Friday.
A spike in the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, which gauges investor fear, may have exacerbated the plunge in New York. The index more than doubled on Monday to 37.32, from 17.31 on the previous trading day. This was the highest level since August 2015, when the mainland Chinese equity market crashed following devaluation of the yuan. Monday's reading far surpassed the levels on the days of Donald Trump's election as U.S. president (18.74) and the British vote for Brexit (25.76).
Some market watchers pinned the blame on algorithmic trading linked to what is known as the risk parity strategy, where levels of risk are used to allocate funds within a portfolio, instead of giving certain percentages to asset classes like stocks and bonds. Since the volatility in Japanese equities rose -- meaning more risk -- those who follow the strategy automatically sold off stocks to balance the risk in their portfolios.
"I think this explains most of the reason for the fall [in stock prices]," said Makoto Furukawa, chief portfolio strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. "Globally, there are around 100 trillion yen ($921 billion) worth of outstanding [funds]" tied to this strategy, Furukawa added.
Hidenori Suezawa, financial market and fiscal analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities, echoed Furukawa's view. Globally, "after the 2000s, management of risk has become stricter," he said. This leads to "an unwinding of positions" when volatility rises, which then spurs still more volatility.
Japanese government officials sought to allay fears after the latest rough trading day. "The Japanese government has not changed its view that the global economy, including that of the U.S., continues to be firm," Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told reporters.
Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda spoke in parliament, saying the fundamentals behind stock prices remain solid as the economies in Japan, the U.S. and Europe are in "very good shape."
Analysts offered various other theories on why stocks are plunging despite those fundamentals.
It is very possible the market has hit bottom for now, and will start climbing as soon as Wednesday
Chihiro Ota, head of investment research at SMBC Nikko Securities
"Investors are selling stocks across all sectors as they reposition their exposure in equities," said Chihiro Ota, head of investment research at SMBC Nikko Securities. As to why Japan is seeing a larger sell-off compared with other markets, Ota noted that "the liquidity in Japan's stock market makes it easy for investors to cash in on their stocks quickly."
Mitsuo Shimizu, equity strategist at Japan Asia Securities, said the selling is "being driven by investors' risk aversion and worries about margin calls being triggered." While he expects Japanese stocks to start rebounding soon, he said the latest turmoil could be "reflecting investors' fears of a possible downturn in the recovering global economy and the shrinkage in demand that would follow."
A stronger yen is also hurting sentiment. The U.S. dollar was trading in the lower 109 yen zone after tumbling overnight in New York in reaction to the stock rout. Automotive shares are being hit hard over fears that profits could dry up. The price of Toyota Motor's American depositary receipts fell more than 3% on Monday in the U.S. Toyota extended its loss by 2.9% in Tokyo on Tuesday.
Market watchers are looking for the floor. "It is very possible the market has hit bottom for now, and will start climbing as soon as Wednesday," SMBC Nikko's Ota said.
Yoshihiro Ito, chief strategist at Okasan Online Securities, said the Nikkei index's high of 21,489 during trading on Oct. 20 "would be one benchmark that investors will be looking out for."
In a research note issued on Tuesday, Jefferies offered its view of the global upheaval: "Recent market action appears more to do with the unwinding of the 'reach for yield' theme than economic fundamentals or credit issues."
The brokerage added that the "speed of the sell-off in government bond yields unsettled equity markets given that real interest rates have been negative in many cases. There has been a strong correlation between equities and reach for yield themes ever since the [global financial crisis]."
Jefferies also said the "usual suspects," such as the dollar and emerging markets like China, are "not to blame."
🍻
reuters :The data, which gives global investors their first look at business conditions in China at the start of 2018, reinforced the view that the economy is beginning to gradually lose steam after growing by a better-than-expected 6.9 percent last year.
The official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released on Wednesday edged lower to 51.3 in January, compared with 51.6 in December. But it remained comfortably above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast the headline number would ease slightly to 51.5.
Indexes for output, total new orders and imports all showed more moderate expansion in January compared with last month, while export orders fell marginally. The new export order index dropped to 49.5, 2.4 percentage point lower than December’s reading.
However, the overall factory reading still appeared relatively solid, marking the 19th straight month of expansion and reinforcing expectations that any slowdown in the economy would be gradual. Economists polled by Reuters are penciling in growth of 6.5 percent this year.[ECILT/CN]
A separate PMI on the steel sector rose to 50.9 in January from 50.2 in December.
In another sign of broader economic resilience, a sister survey showed activity in China’s service sector accelerated to a four-month high in January. The official non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 55.3 from 55 in December.
The services sector accounts for over half of China’s economy, with rising wages giving Chinese consumers more spending power.
A buoyant services industry is welcome news for the policymakers who are counting on growth in services and consumption to rebalance their economic growth model from its heavy reliance on investment and exports.
TRADE RISKS
Boosted by government infrastructure spending, a resilient property market and unexpected strength in exports, China’s manufacturing and industrial firms were a major driver behind the solid economic growth last year.
But analysts say increasing trade frictions with the United States could cloud the outlook for exporters in the world’s second-largest economy.
U.S. President Donald Trump slapped steep tariffs on imported washing machines and solar panels last week. China is the world’s biggest solar panel producer.
The decisions were the first of several potential tariff actions that Trump may take in the coming weeks and months. He is also considering recommendations on import restrictions for steel and aluminum and other trade sanctions against China over its intellectual property practices.
A slowing property market is also likely to dent China’s industrial activity this year, dampening demand for building materials from glass to steel. Property investment growth in December alone moderated to 2.4 percent from a year earlier, the lowest since July 2016.
Moreover, China is expected to continue a wide-ranging crackdown this year on riskier types of financing and debt. The campaign is slowly pushing up companies’ borrowing costs and making it harder and more expensive for weaker firms to raise funds.
“Looking ahead, some of the recent weakness in manufacturing may be partially reversed in the coming months as disruptions caused by the anti-pollution campaign fade,” Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China Economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note on Wednesday.
“But any rebound is likely to prove short-lived given that the drags on economic activity from slower credit growth and the cooling property market are set to intensify this year.”
China also published a composite PMI for the first time on Wednesday, covering both manufacturing and services activity in a bid to better capture overall economic trends.
The composite PMI stood at 54.6 in January, well above the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction and unchanged for a third month.
Reporting by Stella Qiu and Ryan Woo; Editing by Kim Coghill
🍮
Liputan6.com, Jakarta - Harga emas tergelincir ke level terendah dalam satu pekan pada perdagangan Selasa. Pelaku pasar menunggu pidato tahunan Presiden AS Donald Trump dan kebijakan Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat (AS) atau the Federal Reserve (the Fed).
Pidato Donald Trump ini dilakukan di tengah membaiknya data-data ekonomi AS seperti penjualan, tenaga kerja dan lainnya.
Mengutip Reuters, Rabu (31/1/2018), harga emas di pasar spot turun 0,22 persen ke US$ 1.336,99 per ounce pada pukul 01.49 waktu London.
Sebelumnya, harga emas menyentuh titik terendah dalam satu minggu di US$ 1.334,10 per ounce.
Emas berjangka AS untuk pengiriman Februari turun US$ 4,90, atau 0,4 persen, di US$ 1.335,40 per ounce.
Analis senior RJO Futures Josh Graves menjelaskan, pelaku pasar sedang menata kembali portofolio mereka sambil menunggu pidato donald Trump dan pengumuman kebijakan moneter the Fed.
"Banyak yang melakukan reposisi pada perdagangan hari ini," jelas dia.
Sebelumnya pasar menguat karena adanya pandangan bahwa The Fed belum terlalu agresif dalam merombak kebijakan moneter.
🌸
WF: In January, the World Bank published its latest biannual Global Outlook report, which measures economic growth in almost 200 countries by calculating the year-on-year percentage change in GDP.
India and China are usually considered to be stars in this respect. While the global average growth rate is about 2.7 percent, India reported a whopping seven percent last year, with China roughly the same. Such figures are staggering – but they are not the world’s most impressive.
The Global Outlook provides growth forecasts for 2017, 2018 and 2019. India’s three-year forecast is strong – yet China fails to make the list. Meanwhile, a handful of smaller emerging markets are set to out-pace both. Here, World Finance ranks the world’s five fastest-growing economies based on the average of these percentages.
Bhutan – 11.1%
Located between China and India, Bhutan’s mountainous terrain makes it difficult to build infrastructure, such as roads and pipelines. Consequently, manufacturing industries are not the cornerstone of the economy’s growth. Instead, the roots of Bhutan’s prosperity lie in hydropower, agriculture and forestry. For example, the construction of a huge power plant in Dagan has been an important aspect of the government’s plan to increase Bhutan’s hydropower capacity to 10,000MW by 2020.
Ethiopia – 8.7%
While Ethiopia is Africa’s largest recipient of developmental aid and remains one of the world’s least developed countries, several of its sectors show great promise for the economy. A burgeoning services industry underlies the hope that Ethiopia will become a middle-income country by 2025. The construction sector was also boosted in the mid-1990s by massive public infrastructure investment, and gathered real pace between 2004 and 2014. A prime example of its accomplishments is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is often considered the crowning glory of the country’s recent growth.
Ghana – 8.1%
Since the country’s democratisation in 1992, Ghana’s political and legal systems have been central to maintaining the economy’s strong expansion. With courts remaining largely independent and the political process fairly stable, there are few barriers to international trade, which therefore allows the country to draw upon its gold and cocoa reserves to boost prosperity. The discovery of oil reserves in 2010 is also a major cause of development at present. This, alongside a fiscal consolidation plan, will be central to Ghana’s future growth.
Cote d’Ivoire – 8.1%
In 2012, Cote d’Ivoire’s productivity suddenly boomed. There were two reasons for this: first, a peace agreement halted the country’s 10-year civil war, and second, the government received a $4.4bn package from the IMF. Nowadays, cocoa, coffee and palm oil are the backbone of the country’s economy. The government also channels oil revenue into education and infrastructure development, which in turn advances industry. The capital city Abidjan now plays host to Parisian-style cafes, and the country hopes to achieve ‘emerging market’ status by 2020.
India – 7.7%
Indian growth often receives global attention because the country’s economy is both stable and huge. Services are fundamental for the economy, counting for two thirds of Indian GDP, while consumerism is on the rise thanks to a growing middle class. This growth is aided by an entrepreneurial spirit in civil society and a deep sense of national pride. While China is slowing down, India marches ahead, with the IMF predicting it will crack eight percent GDP growth in 2021.
🌷
NEW YORK (Reuters) - In their hunt for yield, some investors have been venturing into offerings as exotic as Tajikistan’s sovereign bond or Iraq’s first sovereign debt sale without U.S. backing in more than a decade only to find out that even those are pricey and hard to get.
Even as emerging markets bonds lost some ground in recent weeks in the secondary market, primary offers from Panamanian bank Multibank Inc MULTB.UL, the Bahamas, and a 30-year Nigerian bond have been well oversubscribed, following a trend of lower sovereign and corporate yields. The sellers’ market is good news for emerging market borrowers, giving them access to funds at rates once afforded only to “investment grade” issuers. But it could lead to mispricing of riskier assets and threaten valuations in the long-term by encouraging borrowers to cut coupons on future issues. Right now it is forcing some funds to scale back. Samy Muaddi, a portfolio manager of T Rowe Price’s Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund, said he has reduced his purchases of initial bond offerings as 2017 has progressed. “We have been more selective in our new issue participation rate for single B credit including Latin American airlines and Chinese real estate,” he said. Fund managers prefer new issues, particularly on corporate debt or debt issued by countries without a solid repayment history, because they typically sell at a discount to the secondary market. That has not been the case recently, Muaddi said, noting that the percentage of new issues in his fund has dropped from about 20 percent of purchases to 12-15 percent. Asset managers of dedicated emerging markets funds say the mispricing largely has been caused by “tourist” dollars rushing in from passive funds and non-specialized money managers, such as hedge funds or high-yield funds, chasing higher returns. “It’s frustrating for me as an investor,” said Josephine Shea, portfolio manager at Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC. “There seems to be quite a bit of indiscriminate buying without looking into underlying fundamentals.” The difference between emerging market bonds yields .JPMEPR and yields for U.S. Treasuries has widened over the past couple months, most recently touching 339 basis points as the U.S. dollar strengthened and local factors weighed on countries in Latin America and the Middle East. However, that number is 35 basis points tighter than the 16-year historical average and comes after spreads compressed to their tightest in three years in mid-October. BELOW FAIR VALUE Shea said that recently bond deals in India and elsewhere in Asia have been 10 times oversubscribed and that the firm has had to drop out of corporate and even frontier market sovereign bond issues because the final interest rates have fallen well below the firm’s assessment of fair value. In previous years, Shea said, bonds would typically be two to four times oversubscribed. Even when they do participate in offerings, some managers say they get less than they want because of high demand. Increasing supply would ease the crunch, but investors say the amounts are already significant for some issuers. For example, Tajikistan sold $500 million in bonds, which is a lot considering the central Asian nation’s annual economic output is about $7 billion. Jim Barrineau, head of emerging markets debt at Schroders, said he has been buying “smaller, less well-known” names and boosting emerging market corporate debt, eschewing stalwarts like Brazil, Mexico and Russia. Among his additions are international telecoms company Millicom International Cellular SA (MICsdb.ST) and mobile provider Digicel Group LTD DCEL.N, which focus on emerging economies.
While portfolio managers talk of “overcrowding,” many still plan to boost their emerging market debt holdings, expecting inflows to keep recovering after worries about the global effects of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy tightening kept investment subdued between 2013 and 2016. This year, emerging market portfolio debt inflows are seen more than doubling to $242 billion from $102 billion in 2016, data from the Institute for International Finance shows. (Graphic: tmsnrt.rs/2AlLT2A) “Any time you have a market that has had the type of performance that EM debt has had over last 18 months there’s going to be some trepidation, but it’s important to look at fundamentals,” said Arif Joshi, emerging markets debt portfolio manager at Lazard Asset Management. Joshi noted accelerating growth, narrowing current account deficits and a shift to sounder economic policies in several emerging economies. Similarly, Jan Dehn, head of research at Ashmore Investment Management, said he saw the recent pullback as part of a seasonal pattern and was using it to boost his positions. “EM is still very, very attractive,” Dehn said. “Our plan is to buy more.” Such optimism has prompted some managers, including T Rowe’s Muaddi and Paul McNamara, investment director at GAM, to direct funds to some less volatile and more liquid emerging market issuers. “The sheer enthusiasm with which people are throwing money at EM,” said McNamara, “makes us cautious.” Reporting by Dion Rabouin; Editing by Christian Plumb and Tomasz Janowski
🍱
Mario Draghi says the euro region is firing on all cylinders, and he’s not about to get in the way.
After the IMF raised growth forecasts and the global elite in Davos heaped praise on the economy’s brighter prospects, the European Central Bank president is giving his own vote of support by saying that an interest-rate increase this year is very unlikely. That’s a green light for an expansion that’s entered its fifth year.
“You could call it ‘Operation Overheat’,” said Richard Barwell, an economist at BNP Paribas Asset Management in London. “By the time Draghi walks out the front door, unemployment could be setting record euro-zone lows.”
The economy probably grew the fastest in a decade last year, and gross domestic product data due Tuesday will probably show a 19th consecutive quarter of expansion at the end of 2017. The region gathered momentum in January, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index suggesting quarterly growth of 1 percent and German business confidence at a record high.
The euro’s ascent to a three-year high against the dollar may yet become a thorn in the economy’s side if it curbs exports and damps prices. Much of the attention on Thursday was on Draghi’s response to U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s remarks that appeared to welcome a weaker dollar.
Draghi hit back, saying such comments may violate agreements to avoid competitive currency devaluations. Yet he also said the euro’s strength was in part down to the region’s improving outlook. The International Monetary Fund this week predicted 2.2 percent growth in 2018, up from a previous estimate of 1.9 percent.
Crucially, Draghi declined to say that the euro had climbed too high. It rose further as he spoke and has added about 4 percent this year.
“His commentary on growth was relatively bullish,” said Nick Kounis, an economist at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam. “If you’re trying to talk down the euro, those kinds of comments are extremely unhelpful.”
Even with the solid pace of growth, returning inflation to the ECB’s goal still depends on central bank stimulus, Draghi said. While he officially kept policy guidance unchanged, he added an important note on the timing of withdrawing that stimulus.
“Based on today’s data and projections, I see very few chances at all that interest rates could be raised this year,” Draghi told reporters in Frankfurt. The ECB stuck by its plan to continue buying 30 billion euros ($37 billion) of assets a month until at least the end of September, and reiterated that rates would stay low well beyond that.
The ECB will update its forecasts for growth and inflation at its next monetary policy meeting in March. They may change their communication on the outlook for policy at the same time, according to a Bloomberg survey conducted before Thursday’s meeting.
— With assistance by Catherine Bosley, Piotr Skolimowski, Lucy Meakin, Alessandro Speciale, David Goodman, and Jill Ward
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Indeks Dow Jones untuk pertama kalinya berakhir menembus level 26.000, sedangkan dua indeks saham acuan Amerika Serikat (AS) lain di bursa Wall Street melonjak pada akhir perdagangan Rabu (17/1/2018), didorong ekspektasi investor terhadap laporan keuangan korporasi.
Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average ditutup naik tajam 1,25% atau 322,79 poin di level 26.115,65, indeks S&P 500 menguat 0,94% atau 26,14 poin di 2.802,56, dan indeks Nasdaq Composite berakhir menanjak 1,03% atau 74,59 poin di level 7.298,28.
Dow Jones juga membukukan all time high pada perdagangan intraday. Pada perdagangan Selasa (16/1), indeks ini sempat menembus 26.000 sebelum turun kembali ke bawah level tersebut.
Sementara itu, indeks S&P 500 membukukan rekor level penutupan tertinggi dan telah naik 4,8% sepanjang tahun ini, dengan hanya mencatat dua sesi pelemahan.
Lebih dari tiga perempat dari 36 perusahaan pada S&P 500 yang dilaporkan sejauh ini telah melampaui perkiraan pendapatan, menurut Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Dilansir Reuters, S&P 500 tercatat telah membukukan 86 kali level tertinggi baru sedangkan Nasdaq Composite mencatatkan 107 level tertinggi baru dan 31 level rendah baru.
Prospek untuk laba korporasi di masa mendatang juga cerah, setelah undang-undang tarif pajak perusahaan yang rendah telah disetujui pada bulan Desember.
“Dengan kebijakan yang signifikan, ada respon yang baik pada pasar. Sekarang kita mulai mendapatkan panduan atas laporan keuangan yang mendorong optimisme pasar,” kata Brad McMillan, chief investment officer di Commonwealth Financial Network di Waltham, Massachusetts, seperti dikutip dari Reuters, Kamis (18/1/2018).
Saham Boeing melonjak 4,7% setelah mengumumkan joint venture dengan Adient untuk membuat kursi pesawat udara. Saham IBM menguat 2,9% setelah analis Barclays menaikkan rekomendasi sahamnya menjadi 'overweight' serta menaikkan target harga sebesar US$59 menjadi US$192.
Di sisi lain, Goldman Sachs dan Bank of America melaporkan hasil yang mengecewakan. Sub sektor bank pada S&P 500 turun sebelumnya pada intraday trading meski mampu berakhir naik 0,6% pada perdagangan Rabu.
Saham Bank of America turun 0,2%, sedangkan saham Goldman Sachs turun 1,9% setelah membukukan kerugian kuartalan pertamanya dalam enam tahun.
🐃
time.com: Forget trying to run complicated calculations or read the stock market’s tea leaves. Warren Buffett says the “single best” way to tell if stocks are too expensive is to look at two simple numbers: the total value of all equities in the market and the total size of the economy.
Then compare them.
When the value of all stocks is 80% or less than the size of the economy, “buying stocks is likely to work very well for you,” Buffett wrote in an article for Fortune back in 2001. But when total equity value exceeds the size of the economy and then some, it’s a sign that investors are getting too giddy — and greedy.
Today, Buffett’s favorite market indicator is flashing its biggest warning sign yet.
The value of all the equities in the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Full Cap Index (a proxy for the entire domestic market) stands at $26 trillion. That’s 135% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), according to figures tracked on a quarterly basis by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
NOTE: 100/135 X 26 = 19... GDP amrik @ $19 T (sekira itu)
By this measure, stocks are frothier than they’ve ever been — even in the months leading up to the 2000 dot-com crash or the global financial panic that began in 2007.
Now, when Buffett wrote about this indicator in the pages of Fortune, he used GNP (gross national product), not GDP, as a measure for U.S. economy activity. There’s a slight difference in the two numbers.
GDP — which grew in popularity as an economic data point in the past quarter-century, and is now the more widely cited figure — measures all economic activity within the nation’s borders, even if that output is generated by foreign citizens or companies. GNP, on the other hand, focuses on the output of Americans, even if they are generating that economic activity outside the U.S.
If you use GNP in this ratio, this indicator is not technically at an all-time high — but it’s still getting oh so close.
The record for U.S. stock market capitalization to GNP, based on quarterly economic data, was achieved in the first quarter of 2000 — when the market was 136% of the size of the U.S. economy — based on data gathered by the St. Louis Fed. Today, that figure is about 134%.
The long-term historic average is less than 74%.
Recently, Buffett has been mum about this indicator, but he may be letting his portfolio do his talking for him.
Those high market valuations may be precisely why Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, is sitting on a record $100 billion of cash on hand. (The company as a whole is valued at $449 billion).
Buffett is on record as saying he actually hates cash, because “cash is going to become worth less over time. But good businesses are going to become worth more over time,” he says.
Yet what Buffett hates more is overpaying for his investments. So the fact that he is willing to hold so much of his company’s assets in cash is a testament to how few bargains he sees in this market. And that would confirm what Buffett’s favorite market indicator is now signaling.
🌽
Tangerang - Pendiri Lippo Group Mochtar Riady meramalkan perekonomian dunia akan membaik pada 2018 ini karena didorong oleh dua raksasa perekonomian dunia yaitu Tiongkok dan Amerika Serikat.
Sebelumnya, menurut Mochtar, Tiongkok sendirian memimpin pergerakan ekonomi dunia karena ekonomi dalam negeri Amerika sedang dilanda krisis.
"Sekarang kita punya lokomotif yang lain yaitu Amerika Serikat. Saya yakin dengan dua lokomotif ini ekonomi dunia akan maju," kata Mochtar dalam pertemuan awal tahun dengan para eksekutif Lippo Group di Karawaci, Tangerang, Senin (15/1).
"Pada 2008 Amerika mengalami krisis moneter. Saat itu Tiongkok yang jadi treasurer dengan investasi 10 triliun renmibi untuk menjaga perekonomian dunia. Namun dengan investasi yang begitu besar timbullah over kapasitas dan overheated."
Kondisi itu menyebabkan Tiongkok mulai kesulitan sejak 2014, namun krisis tersebut sekarang sudah terlewati.
"Di sisi lain presiden Amerika Serikat sudah melakukan tax reform, maka saya yakin ekonomi Amerika akan tumbuh," kata Mochtar, 89.
"Karena itulah tahun ini saya yakin dua lokomotif ini akan menggerakkan ekonomi dunia. Pertanyaan saya, bagaimana dengan Indonesia?"
Lokomotif penggerak ekonomi Indonesia, menurut Mochtar, ada di kawasan Cikarang, Bekasi, di mana setiap tahun diproduksi 1 juta mobil dan 10 juta sepeda motor.
"Di sana juga diproduksi elektronik dan home appliances untuk 250 juta rakyat Indonesia, dan sekarang daerah ini telah ditentukan oleh pemerintah sebagai special economic zone. Jadi saya yakin daerah itu akan menjadi lokomotif ekonomi Indonesia," paparnya.
Sumber: BeritaSatu.com
🐝
dw.com: Bloomberg News reported Wednesday that officials reviewing China's foreign exchange holdings had recommended slowing or halting purchases of US Treasuries, with the greenback tumbling as a result.
However on Thursday, China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said the report was wrong. "We think this story could be quoting a mistaken source or it could also be a piece of fake news."
SAFE officials noted that "the handling of China's foreign reserves investment in US bonds is professionally managed according to market activity, on the basis of market conditions and investment needs."
Beijing's massive US debt holdings are a bugbear for some US politicians, who claim they give China too much leverage over Washington.
But in practice, the People's Bank of China has fewer choices over the size of its foreign exchange purchases than is assumed by many, says research company Capital Economics.
"If the PBOC were to precipitate a large sell-off by retreating from the US Treasury market, the value of its existing reserve would fall."
🍵
BEIJING, Jan. 15 (Xinhua) -- Analysts say slower growth in China's money supply will become common amid the country's deleveraging efforts.
The M2, a broad measure of the money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, rose 8.2 percent to 167.68 trillion yuan (about 26 trillion U.S. dollars) at the end of last year, according to new data from the People's Bank of China, the central bank.
The growth dropped from 11.3 percent at the end of 2016, bidding farewell to the double digit rates seen in previous 20-plus years.
Ruan Jianhong, head of the central bank's survey and statistics division, said current monetary conditions and sound economic performance provided good timing for further deleveraging.
In 2017, new yuan-denominated loans totaled 13.53 trillion yuan, which was 878 billion yuan more than the previous year, with new loans in December at 584.4 billion yuan, more than 400 billion yuan less than market expectations.
"Amid the deleveraging process and tougher financial regulations, the slower growth indicated that the capital uses by commercial banks have become better regulated with less fund circulating inside the financial sector and less derivative deposits," Ruan said.
In November, Chinese regulators released draft guidelines that will unify rules covering asset management products issued by all types of financial institutions to curb financial risks and reduce leverage ratio.
The guidelines require financial institutions to set leverage ceilings on asset management products.
There will be a transition period that will last until June 30, 2019, during which institutions should not expand the scale of products that do not comply with the guidelines.
The sudden slowdown in M2 growth can be partly attributed to the new guidelines, according to China International Capital Corp. (CICC).
"In the future, slower M2 growth than before will become the 'new normal,' as the country's deleveraging process deepens and the financial sector gets back to the function of serving the economy," Ruan said.
She added that factors affecting money supply had become more complicated than before due to market development and financial innovations, so the M2 figure was now less predictable, less controllable and less relevant to the economy.
"Thus there is no need to get overly concerned about or over-interpret the changed pace," Ruan said. "The central bank will continue to implement prudent and neutral monetary policy, control the level of overall money supply and maintain reasonable growth in credit and social financing to hold the liquidity level steady."
China will also strengthen supervision, adjust the "intensity and tempo" of policies to stabilize market expectations, and create a neutral and moderate monetary environment for supply-side structural reforms and high-quality development, she added.
CICC says it maintains its forecast that interest rates for open market operations will continue to rise and monetary policy may move toward the tight end.
🐑
BEIJING, Jan. 16 (Xinhua) -- Two years have passed since the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) started operation, and the steady expansion of membership represents a vote of confidence in the new multilateral bank by the international community.
Since its launch in January 2016, AIIB's approved membership has risen from 57 to 84, expanding its reach within Asia and across the world.
Headquartered in Beijing and with authorized capital of 100 billion U.S. dollars, AIIB is a multilateral development bank focused on infrastructure investment, with a mission to improve social and economic outcomes in Asia and beyond.
As it starts its third year of operation, officials from the bank promised to further expand membership and strengthen its role in the international financial community.
Following are some of the milestones and achievements in the AIIB's past two years of operation.
-- On Jan. 16, 2016, representatives of the 57 founding countries of the AIIB gathered in Beijing for the opening ceremony in Diaoyutai State Guesthouse.
With joint efforts by all members, the AIIB aims to become a lean, clean and green development bank for the 21st century.
-- In June 2016, the bank approved its first four loans, totaling 509 million U.S. dollars, to fund power, housing and transportation projects in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan and Tajikistan.
-- In September 2016, a groundbreaking ceremony for the permanent headquarters of the AIIB was held in Beijing.
The headquarters will be located in the north of Beijing, between the Olympic Forest Park and the iconic Bird's Nest Stadium, with construction expected to be completed by the end of 2019.
-- In March 2017, the AIIB board of governors approved 13 applications to join the bank, the first time the bank has welcomed new prospective members since its inception, bringing the bank's total membership to 70.
-- In May 2017, the AIIB Board of Governors adopted resolutions approving seven applications to join the bank, bringing its total approved membership to 77.
-- In June 2017, the AIIB approved three applications at its second annual meeting of governors, bringing its total approved membership to 80.
-- In 2017, the AIIB received three top-notch ratings from the global credit rating agencies S&P Global Ratings, Moody's and Fitch in recognition of the bank's strong capital base and stable outlook.
-- In December 2017, the AIIB approved its first loan in China for a natural gas project.
The 250-million-U.S. dollar loan will fund a project to connect 216,750 households in approximately 510 villages to the natural gas distribution network.
In the two years the AIIB has been operating, it has invested in 24 projects in 12 countries, with loans exceeding 4.2 billion U.S. dollars.
-- In December 2017, the AIIB Board of Governors approved 4 applications to join the bank, bringing its total approved membership to 84.
🌱
WASHINGTON, Jan. 16 (Xinhua) -- The number of Americans without health insurance rose by 1.3 percentage points, or about 3.2 million people in the year of 2017, according to a Gallup survey released Tuesday. crises start from the USA
The data represent the country's largest single-year increase since the coverage expansion of the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare which was signed into law by then U.S. president Barack Obama in 2009.
Among those who saw the biggest declines in coverage were people aged from 18 to 25, as well as black and Hispanic people and individuals with an annual household income of less than 36,000 dollars, the Gallup-Sharecare Well-being Index shows.
Despite the hike in 2017, the percentage of Americans without insurance is still low compared to its peak of 18 percent in the third quarter of 2013. The Obamacare's individual mandate, which required people to purchase health insurance or pay a penalty, took effect in the fourth quarter of that year.
Between then and 2016, the number of adults who purchased their own coverage went up 3.7 percent, according to Gallup.
U.S. President Donald Trump signed a major tax bill at the end of last month, repealing the individual mandate under the Obamacare.
The Gallup survey is conducted via phone interviews with 25,072 U.S. adults between Oct. 1 and Dec. 31 in 2017, with an error margin of 1 percentage point.
Prediksi Data Togel Malaysia Sabtu 28 Juli 2018-apa bilah anda butuh angka togel di jamin tembus 2D,3D,4D,5D,6D,7D,silah kan hubunggi nomor ini 085,256-133-981 MBAH SORE DAN MBAH BISAH MEBANTU DALAM SITUS PESUGIHAN DANA GAIB DAN TRASFER JANIN SECARA GAIB
Kami adalah organisasi hukum yang dibuat untuk membantu Orang yang membutuhkan bantuan, seperti bantuan keuangan.
Jadi jika Anda atau Anda berada dalam kesulitan keuangan dalam kekacauan keuangan, dan Anda memerlukan uang untuk memulai bisnis Anda sendiri, atau Anda membutuhkan pinjaman untuk melunasi utang Anda atau membayar tagihan Anda, memulai bisnis yang baik, atau telah meminjam lebih banyak Masalah dari lokal bank, hubungi kami hari ini melalui Email: di catherinewilliamloancompany@gmail.com
Email: catherinewilliamloancompany@gmail.com
Aplikasi pinjaman meliputi:
Nama: _________ Alamat: _________ Negara: _________ Okupasi: _________ Jumlah Pinjaman yang Dibutuhkan: __________ Tujuan Pinjaman _________ jangka waktu kredit__ Penghasilan bulanan: _________ Telepon: _________
Saya selalu berpikir bahwa semua perusahaan pinjaman online curang sampai saya bertemu dengan perusahaan peminjam yang meminjamkan uang tanpa membayar terlebih dahulu.
Jika Anda mencari pinjaman, perusahaan ini adalah semua yang Anda butuhkan. setiap perusahaan yang meminta Anda untuk biaya pendaftaran lari dari mereka.
saya menggunakan waktu ini untuk memperingatkan semua rekan saya INDONESIANS. yang telah terjadi di sekitar mencari pinjaman, Anda hanya harus berhati-hati. satu-satunya tempat dan perusahaan yang dapat menawarkan pinjaman Anda adalah SUZAN INVESTMENT COMPANY. Saya mendapat pinjaman saya dari mereka. Mereka adalah satu-satunya pemberi pinjaman yang sah di internet. Lainnya semua pembohong, saya menghabiskan hampir Rp35 juta di tangan pemberi pinjaman palsu.
Pembayaran yang fleksibel, Suku bunga rendah, Layanan berkualitas, Komisi Tinggi jika Anda memperkenalkan pelanggan
Nama saya Aris Mia, saya ingin menggunakan media ini untuk mengingatkan semua pencari pinjaman sangat berhati-hati, karena ada penipuan di mana-mana, mereka akan mengirim dokumen perjanjian palsu untuk Anda dan mereka akan mengatakan tidak ada pembayaran dimuka, tetapi mereka adalah orang-orang iseng, karena mereka kemudian akan meminta untuk pembayaran biaya lisensi dan biaya transfer, sehingga hati-hati dari mereka penipuan Perusahaan Pinjaman.
Beberapa bulan yang lalu saya tegang finansial dan putus asa, saya telah tertipu oleh beberapa pemberi pinjaman online. Saya hampir kehilangan harapan sampai Tuhan digunakan teman saya yang merujuk saya ke pemberi pinjaman sangat handal disebut Ibu Cynthia, yang meminjamkan pinjaman tanpa jaminan dari Rp800,000,000 (800 juta) dalam waktu kurang dari 24 jam tanpa tekanan atau stres dan tingkat bunga hanya 2%.
Saya sangat terkejut ketika saya memeriksa saldo rekening bank saya dan menemukan bahwa jumlah yang saya diterapkan, telah dikirim langsung ke rekening bank saya tanpa penundaan.
Karena saya berjanji bahwa saya akan membagikan kabar baik, sehingga orang bisa mendapatkan pinjaman mudah tanpa stres. Jadi, jika Anda membutuhkan pinjaman apapun, silahkan menghubungi dia melalui email nyata: cynthiajohnsonloancompany@gmail.com dan oleh kasih karunia Allah ia tidak akan pernah mengecewakan Anda dalam mendapatkan pinjaman jika Anda menuruti perintahnya.
Anda juga dapat menghubungi saya di email saya: ladymia383@gmail.com dan Sety yang memperkenalkan dan bercerita tentang Ibu Cynthia, dia juga mendapat pinjaman baru dari Ibu Cynthia, Anda juga dapat menghubungi dia melalui email-nya: arissetymin@gmail.com sekarang, semua akan saya lakukan adalah mencoba untuk memenuhi pembayaran pinjaman saya bahwa saya kirim langsung ke rekening mereka bulanan.
bwat INVESTOR yang MANDIRI @ fundamental BANK: bbri, bbca, bnii Simpanan nasabah pada Juli stabil, LPS: Dunia usaha tengah bersiap kembali ekspansi Perbankan: tabungan milenialis dan investasi LPS Catat Kredit Perbankan Agustus 2021 Tumbuh 0,9 Persen Berbagai Indikator menunjukkan, perbankan kini dalam kondisi sehat dengan rata-rata rasio kecukupan modal (CAR) 24,67% dan kredit bermasalah (NPL) 3,35% pada Juli 2021 BCA (BBCA) Bakal Gelar RUPST 29 Maret 2021, Ini Agenda yang Dibahas BRI Bagi Dividen Rp 12,12 Triliun ke Pemegang Saham Fundamental Kuat di Tengah Krisis, BRI Bagikan Dividen Rp12,1 Triliun Pencadangan naik, begini kondisi permodalan perbankan di Indonesia Berjaga-jaga NPL meningkat, bank BUMN tingkatkan pencadangan kredit BCA bagikan dividen Rp 530 per saham dan angkat 2 direktur baru Saham Bank Terbakar, Ikut Terseret IHSG Ini Upaya BRI Mengurangi Dampak Negatif Perubahan Iklim Daftar 10 Bank dengan Pertumbuhan Laba Bersih Tertinggi di 2020, BTN Teratas 5 Bank Terbesar S...
tren HARGA SAHAM konsumer (2015-2018) yang JO Inves UNVR: DIVIDEN interim Desember 2023 Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia tetap kuat di tengah ketidakpastian kondisi perekonomian global. Data Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) menunjukkan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia triwulan III 2023 tetap tumbuh kuat sebesar 4,94% (yoy), meskipun sedikit melambat dari pertumbuhan pada triwulan sebelumnya yang sebesar 5,17% (yoy). Ke depan pertumbuhan ekonomi akan didukung oleh permintaan domestik, baik konsumsi swasta dan Pemerintah, maupun investasi. Dengan perkembangan tersebut, Bank Indonesia memprakirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi 2023 tetap pada kisaran 4,5-5,3%. Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tetap kuat didukung oleh permintaan domestik yang solid. Konsumsi rumah tangga tumbuh sebesar 5,06% (yoy), seiring dengan kenaikan mobilitas yang terus berlanjut, daya beli masyarakat yang stabil, serta keyakinan konsumen yang masih tinggi. Sementara itu, konsumsi Pemerintah tumbuh negatif 3,76% (yoy) disebabkan terutama oleh...
Prediksi Data Togel Malaysia Sabtu 28 Juli 2018-apa bilah anda butuh angka togel di jamin tembus 2D,3D,4D,5D,6D,7D,silah kan hubunggi nomor ini 085,256-133-981 MBAH SORE DAN MBAH BISAH MEBANTU DALAM SITUS PESUGIHAN DANA GAIB DAN TRASFER JANIN SECARA GAIB
ReplyDeleteKami adalah organisasi hukum yang dibuat untuk membantu Orang yang membutuhkan bantuan, seperti bantuan keuangan.
ReplyDeleteJadi jika Anda atau Anda berada dalam kesulitan keuangan dalam kekacauan keuangan, dan Anda memerlukan uang untuk memulai bisnis Anda sendiri, atau Anda membutuhkan pinjaman untuk melunasi utang Anda atau membayar tagihan Anda, memulai bisnis yang baik, atau telah meminjam lebih banyak Masalah dari lokal bank, hubungi kami hari ini melalui Email: di catherinewilliamloancompany@gmail.com
Email: catherinewilliamloancompany@gmail.com
Aplikasi pinjaman meliputi:
Nama: _________
Alamat: _________
Negara: _________
Okupasi: _________
Jumlah Pinjaman yang Dibutuhkan: __________
Tujuan Pinjaman _________
jangka waktu kredit__
Penghasilan bulanan: _________
Telepon: _________
Silakan hubungi kami melalui e-mail
Email kami: catherinewilliamloancompany@gmail.com
ReplyDeleteSaya selalu berpikir bahwa semua perusahaan pinjaman online curang sampai saya bertemu dengan perusahaan peminjam yang meminjamkan uang tanpa membayar terlebih dahulu.
Jika Anda mencari pinjaman, perusahaan ini adalah semua yang Anda butuhkan. setiap perusahaan yang meminta Anda untuk biaya pendaftaran lari dari mereka.
saya menggunakan waktu ini untuk memperingatkan semua rekan saya INDONESIANS. yang telah terjadi di sekitar mencari pinjaman, Anda hanya harus berhati-hati. satu-satunya tempat dan perusahaan yang dapat menawarkan pinjaman Anda adalah SUZAN INVESTMENT COMPANY. Saya mendapat pinjaman saya dari mereka. Mereka adalah satu-satunya pemberi pinjaman yang sah di internet. Lainnya semua pembohong, saya menghabiskan hampir Rp35 juta di tangan pemberi pinjaman palsu.
Pembayaran yang fleksibel,
Suku bunga rendah,
Layanan berkualitas,
Komisi Tinggi jika Anda memperkenalkan pelanggan
Hubungi perusahaan: (Suzaninvestment@gmail.com)
Email pribadi saya: (Ammisha1213@gmail.com)
KABAR BAIK!!!
ReplyDeleteNama saya Aris Mia, saya ingin menggunakan media ini untuk mengingatkan semua pencari pinjaman sangat berhati-hati, karena ada penipuan di mana-mana, mereka akan mengirim dokumen perjanjian palsu untuk Anda dan mereka akan mengatakan tidak ada pembayaran dimuka, tetapi mereka adalah orang-orang iseng, karena mereka kemudian akan meminta untuk pembayaran biaya lisensi dan biaya transfer, sehingga hati-hati dari mereka penipuan Perusahaan Pinjaman.
Beberapa bulan yang lalu saya tegang finansial dan putus asa, saya telah tertipu oleh beberapa pemberi pinjaman online. Saya hampir kehilangan harapan sampai Tuhan digunakan teman saya yang merujuk saya ke pemberi pinjaman sangat handal disebut Ibu Cynthia, yang meminjamkan pinjaman tanpa jaminan dari Rp800,000,000 (800 juta) dalam waktu kurang dari 24 jam tanpa tekanan atau stres dan tingkat bunga hanya 2%.
Saya sangat terkejut ketika saya memeriksa saldo rekening bank saya dan menemukan bahwa jumlah yang saya diterapkan, telah dikirim langsung ke rekening bank saya tanpa penundaan.
Karena saya berjanji bahwa saya akan membagikan kabar baik, sehingga orang bisa mendapatkan pinjaman mudah tanpa stres. Jadi, jika Anda membutuhkan pinjaman apapun, silahkan menghubungi dia melalui email nyata: cynthiajohnsonloancompany@gmail.com dan oleh kasih karunia Allah ia tidak akan pernah mengecewakan Anda dalam mendapatkan pinjaman jika Anda menuruti perintahnya.
Anda juga dapat menghubungi saya di email saya: ladymia383@gmail.com dan Sety yang memperkenalkan dan bercerita tentang Ibu Cynthia, dia juga mendapat pinjaman baru dari Ibu Cynthia, Anda juga dapat menghubungi dia melalui email-nya: arissetymin@gmail.com sekarang, semua akan saya lakukan adalah mencoba untuk memenuhi pembayaran pinjaman saya bahwa saya kirim langsung ke rekening mereka bulanan.
Sebuah kata yang cukup untuk bijaksana.