China n Amrik @ UTANK (3)
πTHE BEST LAST RESORT LENDER : THE FED, is
China's economy expands 8.1% in 2021
Wall St: ikut peningkatan ekonomi
THE FED: naekkan suku bunga per Maret 2022
CHINA: taipan evergrande TERLILIT UTANk
Jurus Pemerintah China Atasi Gejolak Evergrande
Evergrande: diragukan kemampuan bayar utangnya
Why Evergrande has suddenly exploded into a potential global financial market crisis
Indebted Evergrande expects ‘significant continuing decline’ in September sales
Analysis: Investors grappling with Evergrande fallout weigh risk of wider pain
Evergrande starts repayment plan by offering investors properties
Evergrande punya utang ke 128 bank, ini bank yang punya eksposure tertinggi
Evergrande casts a long shadow as markets rebound
Kekhawatiran Gagal Bayar Mereda, Saham Evergrande Melonjak
"houses are for living in, not for speculation"
Safely pop bubbles in real estate sector
Evergrande denies bankruptcy, reorganization rumors
Selain Evergrande Ada Grup Properti China Lain Terjerat Utang Jumbo
KRISIS EVERGRANDE: minta restrukturisasi
Kapitalisasinya Tembus Rp35,5 Kuadriliun, IMF Desak Dunia Awasi Aset Kripto
business insider: Sinking US Treasury yields signal that negative interest rates in the US “are still possible,” according to a note from DataTrek published on Monday.
While the stock market is breathing a sigh of relief due to stronger-than-expected second quarter earnings, falling interest rates suggest investors are sceptical of the current rally and are still risk averse, the note said.
Last week, the 2-year and 5-year US Treasury rates hit record lows of 0.109% and 0.209%, respectively, and the 10-year rate sat just above record lows.
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While the stock market continues to move higher after better-than-expected second quarter earnings reports, falling interest rates suggest investors are still risk averse and sceptical of the current rally, according to DataTrek.
In a note published on Monday, DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas said that negative interest rates in the US “are still possible.” It seems the Treasury market is getting closer to that reality, which might please President Donald Trump.
Earlier this year, President Trump called for negative interest rates in the US, so that the country can take advantage of record yield borrowing rates.
Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has insisted that the Fed is not looking at negative interest rates as a potential monetary policy tool.
In early March, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed slashed the US federal funds rate to 0% to 0.25%.
Last week, interest rates on the 2-year and 5-year US Treasury notes hit record lows of 0.109% and 0.209%, respectively, and the 10-year rate finished last week at 0.533%, just above its record nominal low of 0.498% reached in mid-march, Colas said.
The 10-year note was trading at 1.90% just one year ago, and its long-term trading average is 4.44%, according to data from YCharts.com.
Read more: A Wall Street quant chief breaks down why a COVID-19 vaccine is not the silver bullet investors have been hoping for – and warns another stock-market meltdown is likely
With the US 10-year “flirting with another record-low yield,” investors shouldn’t be surprised if negative interest rates end up in the US as they have overseas.
Negative sovereign yielding debt peaked at $US17 trillion last August, and has since fallen to just above $US10 trillion as of April, according to Barron’s.
Stronger-than-expected second quarter earnings may be masking underlying weakness in the economy, as signalled by continually falling interest rates.
And according to Colas, the earnings beats this quarter are mainly because “so many companies stopped giving earnings guidance in the wake of the COVID crisis,” which led to Wall Street analysts assuming “the worst when they did their earnings models.”
With 63% of S&P 500 companies having reported second quarter earnings so far, 84% of them beat analyst expectations, according to data from FactSet.
But despite the earnings beats, “the slide of long-term Treasury yields is a good reminder that investor risk aversion remains and negative US rates are still possible,” explained Colas, who has pointed out over the past few months that fed funds futures “refuse to give up on the idea of negative US policy rates.”
Now, “Treasury markets are increasingly signalling that possibility,” Colas concluded.
The US 10-year traded at a high of 0.568% on Monday.
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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA - Bursa saham Amerika Serikat mendapat angin segar setelah The Federal Reserve mempertahankan tingkat bunga acuan di rentang 0 persen hingga 0,25 persen.
Berdasarkan data Bloomberg, indeks S&P 500 naik 1,24 persen sedangkan indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average naik 0,61 persen. Indeks Nasdaq Composite juga naik 1,35 persen. Dalam sebulan, tiga indeks saham acuan itu mencetak kenaikan 3,69 persen hingga 6,77 persen.
Keputusan The Fed, seperti yang telah banyak diprediksi-juga membuat dolar melanjutkan tren pelemahan dan di sisi lain mengerek harga emas yang sudah memecahkan rekor harga tertinggi sejak 2011.
Baca Juga : Jelang Pengumuman The Fed, Bursa AS Menanjak |
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Gubernur The Fed Jerome Powell menegaskan, The Fed akan tetap mengucurkan stimulus dalam bentuk pembelian obligasi dan efek beragun aset selama beberapa bulan mendatang. The Fed bakal menggunakan instrumen apapun yang dibutuhkan untuk memulihkan perekonomian dari dampak pandemi.
"Ke depan perekonomian kita benar-benar tidak pasti dan sebagian besar akan tergantung pada keberhasilan kita dalam menangani penyebaran virus," ujarnya dalam konferensi pers virtual seperti dilansir dari Bloomberg.
Dia menambahkan, untuk mendukung pemuliha ekonomi dibutuhkan stimulus fiskal dan moneter. Saat ini negosiasi dengan Kongres AS telah berlangsung. Nilai stimulus sebelumnya yang diajukan mencapai US$1 triliun.
Chief U.S Economist di Oxford Economics Gregory Daco mengatakan pernyataan Powell sangatlah tepat dan dia memuji bahwa memang diperlukan stimulus fiskal untuk memulihkan perekonomian.
"Dia berbicara jujur tentang urgensi stimulus fiskal untuk mendukung pemulihan [ekonomi] dan mencegah resesi ganda," ujarnya seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg.
Chief investment strategist Charles Schwab Corp.’s Liz Ann Sonders menyampaikan kendati saham sedang tren menanjak, kinerja laporan keuangan mungkin akan gagal memberikan dukungan untuk reli lanjutan.
"Pada akhirnya dibutuhkan kinerja perusahaan untuk membenarkan lonjakan saham yang sedang terjadi," paparnya.
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NEW YORK - Bursa saham Amerika Serikat (AS), Wall Street menguat. Hal tersebut karena saham teknologi melonjaknya dan mendorong Nasdaq ke rekor penutupan tertinggi. Investor melihat adanya potensi berakhirnya pandemi dengan melihat hasil uji coba vaksin Covid yang menjanjikan.
Saham Amazon Inc (AMZN.O) dan Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) memberikan dorongan terbesar untuk indeks Nasdaq dan S&P 500. Tetapi industri mundur, membatasi keuntungan nominal Dow.
Baca Juga:
Dow Jones Industrial Average naik 8,92 poin atau 0,03% menjadi 26.680,87. S&P 500 naik 27,11 poin atau 0,84% menjadi 3.251,84 dan Nasdaq Composite menambahkan 263,90 poin atau 2,51% menjadi 10.767,09.
Uji coba vaksin potensial sangat menjanjikan. Baru-baru ini, obat-obatan dari AstraZenica (AZN.L), CanSino Biologics Inc (6185.HK) dan dari kemitraan antara Pfizer Inc (PFE.N) dan perusahaan biotek Jerman BioNTech (BNTX.O) dengan aman diberikan dan diinduksi untuk kekebalan.
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"Perkembangan pada Covid, positif atau negatif, telah menjadi pemicu risiko risk-on atau risk-off baru untuk pasar. Beberapa minggu ke depan akan dilakukan penilaian dan seperti apa dampaknya?" kata Kepala Investasi NovaPoint Joseph Sroka, dilansir dari Reuters, Selasa (21/7/2020).
Sementara itu, menurut data Refinitiv, musim pendapatan kuartal kedua terus berlanjut. 48 perusahaan dalam indeks S&P 500 telah mengumumkan hasil kinerjanya dengan capaian 77,1% mengalahkan konsensus.
Secara agregat, analis memperkirakan laba kuartal kedua pada perusahaan di Indeks S&P 500 turun 43,2% (yoy).
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BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s exports unexpectedly rose in June as overseas economies reopened after lockdowns, while imports grew for the first time this year, reinforcing views the recovery from the pandemic is gaining traction in the world’s second-largest economy.
Exports
Imports
“The reopening of major western economies and elevated overseas demand for PPEs (personal protective equipment) and masks supported Chinese exports in June,” said Boyang Xue, a China analyst at Ducker Frontier.
“In addition, production disruptions in China’s trade competitors also helped to shift some orders to Chinese exporters.”
China’s economy is gradually emerging from a sharp 6.8% contraction in the first quarter, but the recovery remains fragile as global demand falters from social curbs and still rising coronavirus cases. Chinese consumption is also subdued amid job losses and concerns about a resurgence in infections.
The country’s export performance however has not been as severely affected by the global slowdown as some analysts had feared, though weak overseas orders may weigh on its manufacturers in the coming quarters.
External risks such as worsening U.S.-China relations, shrinking global demand and disruptions in supply chains are likely to pressure China’s trade outlook in the long term, Institute of Advanced Research at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics said in a report on Saturday.
“In the second half, export and import growth are highly likely to extend declines seen in the first half.”
But Xue looked to positives in Tuesday’s trade figures as a sign the economy had turned a corner.
“The significant improvement in China’s imports is an indication of the country’s accelerating economic recovery, which has been mainly driven by substantial increases in investments in sectors such as real estate and infrastructure.”
Iron ore imports jumped in June, the trade data showed, fuelled by rising shipments from miners and robust demand in China. Crude oil imports also hit a record.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he was not thinking about negotiating a “Phase 2” trade deal with China as relations between Washington and Beijing have been “severely damaged” due to the coronavirus pandemic and other issues.
China’s trade surplus with the United States widened to $29.41 billion in June from $27.89 billion in May.
The country’s trade surplus for June stood at $46.42 billion, compared with an expected $58.6 billion surplus forecast in the poll and a surplus of $62.93 billion in May.
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(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve’s $3 trillion bid to stave off an economic crisis in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak is fuelling excesses across U.S. capital markets.
The U.S. central bank has pledged unlimited financial asset purchases to sustain market liquidity, increasing its balance sheet from $4.2 trillion in February to $7 trillion today.
While the vast majority of these purchases have been limited to U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, the Fed’s pledge to bolster the corporate bond market has been enough to spur a frenzy among investors for bonds and stocks.
“COVID-19 is now inversely related to the markets. The worse that COVID-19 gets, the better the markets do because the Fed will bring in stimulus. That is what has been driving markets,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance.
Here are some of the market bubbles that investors are attributing to the Federal Reserve’s intervention.
STOCK MARKET BONANZA
The Federal Reserve has not bought stocks as part of its financial stimulus programs. But its near-zero interest rates and credit support for large swathes of Corporate America have driven yield-hungry investors back to the equity market.
(For S&P 500 vs. U.S. GDP graphic see: here)
Since their bottom on March 23, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have both risen more than 40% and the Nasdaq composite has gained nearly 60%. The S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio is currently 21.5, a level last seen during the dot-com boom 20 years ago.
(For S&P price-to-earnings graphic see: here)
IPO FRENZY
The stock market euphoria has spilled over into initial public offerings (IPOs) and other stock sales to investors.
A record $184 billion was raised in U.S. equity capital markets in the second quarter, according to Refinitiv IFR data. Over $8.9 billion worth of IPOs in the second quarter priced above the target range, the highest amount since the third quarter of 2014, according to Dealogic.
“Why anyone would buy Nissans at Bentley prices is beyond me, but that’s what happens generally with any sexy IPO. Sure the Nissan has 4 wheels and it’s fine transportation, but is it worth a Bentley valuation?” said Richard Bernstein, chief investment officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors.
(For IPOs priced above predicted range graphic see: here)
DEBT BINGE
The Fed’s bond-buying programs encouraged companies to tap credit markets and made the second quarter the busiest ever for debt issuance.
(For quarterly U.S. corporate bond issuance graphic see: tmsnrt.rs/2W2BCS3)
Some $1.2 trillion of investment-grade paper was sold in the first half of the year, the highest issuance volume recorded by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. Even though the Fed refrained from buying most junk-rated bonds, issuance was at $200 billion through June, more than double last year’s rate.
“Investment grade and high yield bonds had an incredible quarter in terms of issuance and performance. We just continue to see more and more money flow into those markets,” said Ted Swimmer, head of capital markets at Citizen’s Commercial Banking.
“But there’s been so much new issuance in the second quarter, you get concerned you’re not going to see a ton of new issuance in the third quarter.”
(For annual volume of U.S. corporate debt offerings graphic see: here)
The premiums investors demand for holding riskier corporate debt over safer Treasury bonds, or credit spreads, narrowed sharply in the second quarter. On March 23, investors were paid the highest premium in 11 years to hold junk-rated debt, as measured by the ICE/BofA high-yield index. That number nearly halved by the end of the second quarter.
Investment-grade debt, using the equivalent ICE/BofA index has recovered almost fully from 401 basis points on March 23 to 152 basis points today.
(For U.S. credit spreads graphics see: here)
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Buoyed by recently introduced economic stimulus policies and a positive outlook for economic recovery in the second half of the year, A-shares bounced back on Monday, showing more signs of a bull market.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index jumped 5.71 percent to close at 3332.88 points on Monday, which was the highest that the index has been since March 2018. In Guangdong province, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.09 percent to 12941.72 points on Monday while the technology-heavy ChiNext in Shenzhen gained 2.72 percent.
The total daily trading volumes reported by the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges topped 1.56 trillion yuan ($222 billion) on Monday, hitting a five-year high. Northbound investment, or the trading volume from overseas investors using the stock connect program between Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong, reached 16.43 billion yuan, up 6 percent from the previous trading day.
The daily high in trading volume exceeded 1 trillion yuan for three consecutive trading days, indicating an increasing number of investors entering the A-share market, said Yang Delong, executive general manager of Shenzhen-based First Seafront Fund.
"The logic of the new round of bull market is quite simple. First of all, the low interest rate adopted by China's central bank has secured adequate market liquidity," he said.
"The second reason is the transfer of Chinese household savings. While the central government discourages speculative property investment, household savings need a new outlet for investment and the stock market is the right target. The surge of mutual fund products in the first half of the year has been the most solid proof," he added.
The financial sector led Monday's rally. A-share-listed insurance companies saw their prices rise by 9.49 percent on average, almost reaching the daily limit of 10 percent. Prices of listed commercial banks' securities firms also spiked over 9 percent on average.
Hu Guopeng, chief strategist at Founder Securities, said the financial sector is relatively undervalued if compared with consumption companies and high-growth enterprises. Given favorable new policies for the financial industry, undervalued securities firms, insurers and banks are expected to show strong growth in July.
The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said on Jan 3 that household savings should be guided into the capital market.
The People's Bank of China, the central bank, and other financial regulators issued on Friday the final version of standards to identify the scope of standardized debt products. The rules will discourage banks' wealth-management businesses from excessive allocation of customer assets under management to riskier shadow banking products, also known as nonstandard products.
The rules will foster the development of asset management business and promote the sustained development of direct financing, according to the PBOC.
While the China Securities Regulatory Commission said at a news conference on June 28 it had no information to provide on the reported issuance of securities licenses to commercial banks, the securities agency stressed the importance of the development of investment banking, which is crucial to the expansion of direct investment.
Expectations of economic recovery in the second half supported the Monday surge and may do the same for the stock market in coming months, according to analysts at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. Listed technology and consumer goods companies would benefit.
The Chinese economy has staged a V-shaped rebound, backed by better-than-expected performance in industrial production and great resilience in exports, said Hu Yifan, regional chief investment officer and chief China economist at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Policy support, especially infrastructure investment driven by government bonds, is expected to help sustain the recovery over the second half of the year, when economic growth may recover to about 5 to 6 percent year-on-year, Hu said.
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street closed higher and the Nasdaq reached an all-time closing high on Thursday as investors headed into their long holiday weekend buoyed by a record surge in payrolls, which provided assurance that the U.S. economic recovery was well under way.
All three major U.S. stock averages advanced, with the benchmark S&P 500 posting its fourth straight daily gain.
Massive stimulus and hopes for a speedy economic rebound have returned the S&P 500 and the Dow to 7.6% and 12.6% below their record highs reached in February.
The indexes registered strong gains for the week.
The U.S. economy added 4.8 million jobs USNFAR=ECI in June according to the Labor Department, 1.8 million more than analysts expected, setting a second consecutive record.
Massive rehiring sent the unemployment rate USUNR=ECI down to 11.1%. [nL1N2E82LC]
“There was a lot to like in economic data for the week,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “And there’s still talk that there will be more stimulus from Washington after they get back from the Fourth of July break.”
Still, even with May and June’s consecutive record payroll gains, the labor market has still recovered only a fraction of the 22 million jobs lost in the March-April plunge.
The recovery of the U.S. economy, now in its sixth month of recession, could stall as new cases of COVID-19 hit record levels and several states hit hardest by the resurgence halted or reversed plans to reopen their economies. [nL1N2E81ES]
On Thursday, Florida reported a record-shattering 10,000 new cases of the disease, worse than any European country reported at the peak of their outbreaks. [nL8N2E94GS]
“With the spikes (in new COVID-19 cases) we’ve seen the larger states - Texas, California and Florida - those states have taken steps to turn back their re-opening plans,” Nolte added. “And that will slow the overall growth and consumer spending in those regions.”
In the coming weeks, market participants will train their focus on second-quarter reporting season. In aggregate, analysts now expect S&P earnings to have dropped by 43.1% as companies grappled with plunging demand and disrupted supply chains.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose 92.39 points, or 0.36%, to 25,827.36, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 14.15 points, or 0.45%, to 3,130.01 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 53.00 points, or 0.52%, to 10,207.63.
The CBOE Volatility index , a barometer of investor anxiety, logged its largest weekly point drop since the week ending May 8.
Of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, all but real estate .SPLRCR and communications services .SPLRCL closed higher, with materials .SPLRCM enjoying the largest percentage gain.
Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) provided the biggest boost to the S&P 500, and in June retained its top spot as the most globally invested stock, according to data from trading platform eToro.
Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) jumped 8.0% after the electric car maker’s second-quarter vehicle deliveries beat Wall Street estimates. [nL4N2E92OP]
Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.90-to-1 ratio; on the Nasdaq, a 1.28-to-1 ratio favored advancers.
The S&P 500 posted 36 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 123 new highs and 10 new lows.
Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.03 billion shares, compared with the 13.24 billion average over the last 20 trading days.
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NEW YORK, Investor.id – Tiga indeks utama saham di Wall Street pada penutupan perdagangan Senin (Selasa pagi WIB) melonjak, dengan Dow memimpin kenaikan sebesar 2,32%. Investor mengantisipasi bakal digulirkannya stimulus lebih banyak lagi oleh Federal Reserve. Saham Boeing melonjak lebih dari 14% setelah 737 MAX lepas landas pada Senin dari bandara daerah Seattle, hari pertama pengujian penerbangan sertifikasi dengan Administrasi Penerbangan. Harga saham Boeing sebelumnya jatuh cukup dalam akibat pandemi, krisis terburuk yang pernah ada. Dow Jones Industrial Average .JJI naik 580,25 poin atau 2,32%, menjadi 25.595,8. Sementara itu, S&P 500 .SPX naik 44,19 poin atau 1,47% menjadi 3.053,24, dan Nasdaq Composite .IXIC menambahkan 116,93 poin atau 1,2% menjadi 9.874,15. Investor kini mulai tenang dan berharap Federal Reserve serta pemerintah akan bergerak untuk pemulihan ekonomi dengan memberi stimulus lebih banyak. Pekan lalu, data lonjakan infeksi virus di negara-negara Selatan dan Barat telah merontokkan Wall Street. Investor meyakini lonjakan infeksi dapat diatasi dengan penetapan harga obat antivirus remdesivir, yang telah terbukti mengubah program COVID-19. Gilead Sciences (GILD.O) yang memproduksi obat itu telah setuju untuk mengirim hampir semua pasokannya ke Amerika Serikat selama tiga bulan ke depan. "Ini pelajaran bulan Juni, gerakan satu hari ini tampak mengesankan tetapi jika diakumulasi selama 20, indeks saham tidak banyak berubah," kata Willie Delwiche, ahli strategi investasi di Baird di Milwaukee. Sementara itu, data kontrak untuk membeli rumah menunjukkan pembalikan arah dari sebelumnya rebound dan mencapai rekor paling tinggi pada Mei. Akhir minggu ini, investor akan fokus pada data ketenagakerjaan dan kepercayaan konsumen. Analis di Morgan Stanley mengatakan, stimulus berupa suntikan uang tunai sangat penting untuk pemulihan ekonomi AS yang berbentuk "V". Di sisi lain, The BlackRock Investment Institute menurunkan peringkat ekuitas AS menjadi "netral." Faktornya adalah memudarnya stimulus fiskal, epidemi yang meluas serta ketegangan perdagangan AS-Tiongkok. Meskipun RUU bantuan untuk Covid-19 $ 3 triliun disahkan oleh DPR pada bulan Mei, Senat yang dikontrol Republik belum menyetujuinya. Hal ini akan menyulitkan RUU Coronavirus lainnya diluncurkan sampai sekitar bulan Juli. Semalam, volume transaksi saham tercatat 10,57 miliar saham, lebih rendah dibandingkan rata-rata 13,54 miliar untuk sesi penuh selama 20 hari perdagangan terakhir.
Sumber : REUTERS
Artikel ini telah tayang di Investor.id dengan judul "Wall Street Melonjak, Berharap Stimulus"
Penulis: Listyorini
Read more at: http://brt.st/6DP5
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Bisnis.com,
Dilansir dari Pada perdagangan Jumat (19/6/2020), penurunan indeks S&P 500 dipimpin oleh saham-saham utilitas, industri energi, dan periklanan.
Dalam satu pekan, indek S&P 500 mencatat kenaikan hampir 1,9 persen, berkat kenaikan tajam pada 16 Juni 2020. Secara tahunan, indeks S&P 500 masih memberikan imbal hasil positif 7,97 persen.
Penguatan saham dipicu oleh sentimen rencana China mempercepat pembelian barang-barang pertanian AS sebagai bagian dari kesepakatan perdagangan tahap pertama.
Namun, kinerja ciamik itu luntur oleh kekhawatiran atas angka infeksi Covid-19 yang menunjukkan peningkatan di negara bagian Florida dan Arizona. Investor kebingungan volatilitas yang mendadak ini berakhir dengan penurunan harga saham.
Chief Investment Officer BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors Matt Forester mengatakan volatilitas di psar saham merupakan pertanda yang mengkhawatirkan.
"Ini adalah kelanjutan gelombang pertama.Ini bukan gelombang kedua," ujarnya seperti dikutip dari
Di Eropa, investor fokus pada negosiasi atas usulan Uni Eropa senilai 750 miliar Euro untuk stimulus pemulihan perekonomian. Sentimen ini membantu indeks Stoxx 600 naik 0,6 persen.
Sementara itu, di AS investor yakin pemerintah akan mampu mengembalikan ekonomi ke jalur yang tepat dengan stimulus yang tersedia. Pelaku pasar berani bertaruh sehingga mengerek indeks saham untuk kemudian menahan tren koreksi di pasar saham.
Berikut perkembangan pasar keuangan hingga Jumat (19/6/2020).
Saham
- Indeks S&P 500 turun 0,6 persen,penurunan terbesar dalam lebih dari seminggu.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average turun 0,8 persen, koreksi terbesar dalam lebih dari seminggu.
Mata uang
Euro turun 0,2 persen menjadi $ 1,118, terlemah dalam lebih dari dua minggu.
Yen Jepang terapresiasi 0,1 persen menjadi 106,86 per dolar, terkuat dalam enam minggu pada kenaikan kelima beruntun.
Obligasi
- Imbal hasil pada obligasi AS 10-tahun turun dua basis poin menjadi 0,69 persen, terendah dalam lebih dari seminggu.
- Imbal hasil obligasi Jerman menurun satu basis poin menjadi -0,42 persen.
- Imbal hasil obligasi Inggris naik satu basis poin menjadi 0,238 persen, tertinggi dalam lebih dari seminggu.
Komoditas
- Minyak mentah West Texas Intermediate naik 1,9 persen menjadi $ 39,57 per barel, tertinggi dalam lebih dari seminggu.
- Emas menguat 1,2 persen menjadi
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KONTAN.CO.ID - JAKARTA. Wall Street bergerak mixed dengan kecenderungan turun pada awal perdagangan Kamis (18/6). Pada pukul 21.05 WIB, Dow Jones Industrial Average turun 0,46% ke 26.002.
Indeks S&P 500 turun 0,13% ke 3.109. Sedangkan Nasdaq Composite naik 0,06% ke 9.916.
Lonjakan infeksi virus corona di Amerika Serikat (AS) berpotensi menahan pemulihan ekonomi Paman Sam. Apalagi data klaim pengangguran mingguan masih meningkat di tengah gelombang kedua PHK.
Baca Juga: Jadi indeks dengan penurunan paling mini, begini prospek saham IDX Growth30
Sejumlah negara bagian AS seperti Texas, Florida, dan Oklahoma melaporkan kenaikan kasus infeksi baru. Tapi, Presiden AS Donald Trump kemarin mengatakan bahwa AS tidak akan menutup bisnis lagi.
"Tanpa vaksinasi atau solusi masalah kesehatan ini, masalah ekonomi akan terus bermunculan meski data telah mencapai posisi terendah di AS dan China," kata Nate Fischer, chief investment strategist Strategis Wealth Partners kepada Reuters.
Departemen Tenaga Kerja AS melaporkan bahwa klaim awal tunjangan pengangguran negara bagian mencapai sekitar 1,51 juta di akhir pekan lalu. Angka klaim ini turun dalam pekan kesebelas berturut-turut.
Baca Juga: Likuiditas asing banjir mengalir ke obligasi global Indonesia
Sementara itu, yield US Treasury turun yang menunjukkan kenaikan harga. Permintaan aset safe haven ini naik di tengah kekhawatiran pasar akibat pandemi corona.
"Pasar keuangan tengah berupaya menyeimbangkan data ekonomi yang positif dengan wabah corona," kata Zach Griffiths, interest rate strategist Wells Fargo kepada Reuters.
Yield US Treasury bertenor 10 tahun berada di 0,713%. Imbal hasil surat utang ini sempat berada di 0,959% pada 5 Juni setelah data menunjukkan bahwa ada penambahan tenaga kerja di bulan Mei.
Tapi, yield surat utang negara AS ini terus turun setelah optimisme perbaikan kondisi ekonomi memudar.
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Key indicators improve on continued policy support in spite of headwinds
China's economic recovery continued to gather speed in May despite shocks from the COVID-19 epidemic with most of the key indicators showing improvement as a result of continued policy support, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.
But officials and economists warned about possible economic head winds ahead as the threat of the novel coronavirus still remains after Beijing, the capital city, reported a new cluster of local COVID-19 infections.
The country's industrial output expanded by 4.4 percent year-on-year in May, 0.5 percentage point faster than that of the previous month, according to the NBS.
Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, dropped by 2.8 percent year-on-year but the contraction narrowed by 4.7 percentage points from April's decline.
Fixed-asset investment in the first five months contracted by 6.3 percent on a yearly basis, recovering from a 10.3-percent decline in the first four months.
Meanwhile, the country's service production index resumed positive in May for the first time since the epidemic started and grew by 1 percent on a yearly basis. This compared with a 4.5-percent decline in April, showing that the service sector is on path to recovery, driven by robust growth of the information technology, financial and the property sectors, according to the NBS.
Fu Linghui, an NBS spokesman, said that the economic data in May were largely in line with expectations as business resumption continued, production and demand improved and employment and prices remained stable.
The economy continued to gather momentum and growth has been supported by the rapid development of the digital economy, online retail sales and high-technology manufacturing, he said.
While major economic indicators continued to improve in May, they were still lower than those of the same period of last year, meaning that business activities have not yet returned to the normal level, Fu said.
"The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy continues to evolve and there has been a substantial increase in external uncertainties. China's economic recovery is still under pressure and it requires more efforts to bring the economy back to the path of normal growth," he said.
Economists with Beijing Gao Hua Securities Co Ltd said that the economic recovery was largely helped by continued policy support reflected by the strong sequential growth of total social financing over the past three months and loosening of virus control restrictions and residents' greater willingness to go out because of the perception the spread of the virus was under control.
But they said that the newly reported COVID-19 cases in Beijing may further complicate the economic outlook. "It is still very limited in scale so far and the local authorities have taken swift action. So there is a good chance that the situation will be brought under control," they said in a research note.
Zhang Yu, chief macroeconomic researcher at Hua Chuang Securities Co Ltd, said that the new COVID-19 cases in Beijing could suppress seafood consumption as most cases were linked with a major agricultural and seafood wholesale market in Beijing.
The decline of retail sales in Beijing may drag down retail sales on the national level by about 0.3 percentage point in June, according to Zhang's estimation.
"But given that the local authorities have acted immediately to contain the virus and the city is experienced in outbreak control, the impact is likely to be local and may last for a short period of time," Zhang said.
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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA - Agresivitas produsen emas China untuk mencaplok perusahaan emas di luar negeri tidak surut diterpa pandemi Covid-19.
Buktinya, Zijin Mining Group Co. Ltd. sepakat mengakuisisi Guyana Goldfields Inc. pada hari Jumat (13/6/2020), dengan nilai kesepakatan sekitar C$323 juta.
Mei lalu, produsen emas China Shandong Gold Mining Co. Ltd. telah menuntaskan pembelian saham TMAC Resources Inc. secara tunai dengan nilai sekitar US$149 juta.
Harga emas spot telah mengungguli pasar ekuitas global tahun ini di tengah ketidakpastian Covid-19 dan banjir stimulus global. Kondisi ini sejalan dengan kenaikan harga emas sebesar 18 persen tahun lalu di tengah kekhawatiran pertumbuhan global.
Alhasil, kilau bisnis emas di tengah pandemi dan ketidakpastian global makin kuat.
Zijin membeli Guyana Goldfields setelah pertempuran sengit dengan dua penambang lainnya. Penawaran awal datang dari Silvercorp Metals Inc. pada 27 April 2020, perusahaan ini ingin membeli Guyana seharga US$0,60 per saham dengan kesepakatan pertukaran saham.
Namun, dalam beberapa minggu, tawaran saingan dari Gran Colombia Gold Corp menaikkan penawaran menjadi C$ 0,90 per saham, kemudian mendorong Silvercorp untuk meningkatkan penawarannya menjadi C$ 1,30 per saham. Namun, kedua penawaran akhirnya dikalahkan oleh Zijin dengan harga C$ 1,85 per saham, lebih dari tiga kali lipat tawaran awal C$ 0,60.
JAKARTA - Bursa saham Amerika Serikat (AS) Wall Street ditutup menguat pada perdagangan Jumat waktu setempat, setelah perdagangan sebelumnya anjlok.
Namun, ketiga indeks utama Wall Street mengalami penurunan persentase mingguan terbesar sejak Maret.
Melansir Reuters, , Jakarta, Sabtu (13/6/2020), indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average naik 477,37 poin, atau 1,9% menjadi 25.605,54, indeks S&P 500 naik 39,21 poin atau 1,31%, menjadi 3.041,31 dan indeks Nasdaq Composite naik 96,08 poin, atau 1,01%, menjadi 9.588,81.
Untuk minggu ini, indeks Dow berakhir turun 5,6%, S&P 500 turun 4,8% dan Nasdaq turun 2,3%, persentase penurunan mingguan terbesar untuk indeks sejak pekan yang berakhir 20 Maret.
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Pada perdagangan Jumat kemarin pasar bergerak bak roller coaster dengan indeks S&P 500 naik sekitar 3% di sesi tertinggi dan turun sekitar 0,6% di titik terendah.
Sementara itu, sinyal Federal Reserve soal pemulihan ekonomi akibat meningkatnya kasus Covid-19 di Amerika Serikat telah membuat optimisme investor akan ekonomi rebound cepat.
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"Penurunan yang cukup besar dan mungkin ada beberapa ketakutan akan kehilangan, beberapa mencoba (mengambil) beberapa nilai ketika itu ada di sana," kata Rob Haworth, ahli strategi investasi senior di Bank Wealth Management di AS.
Sektor keuangan dan teknologi memberi dorongan terbesar kepada indeks S&P 500.
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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Bursa saham Amerika Serikat melonjak pada awal perdagangan Jumat (5/6/2020), menyusul rilis data tenaga kerja yang lebih baik dari perkiraan.
Berdasarkan data Bloomberg, indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average menguat 2,73 persen ke level 27.000,57 di awal perdagangan, sedangkan indeks S&P 500 menguat 2,2 persen ke level 3.180,77 dan indeks Nasdaq Composite menguat 1,75 persen ke level 9.784,42.
Ketiga indeks utama bursa AS melonjak menyusul data yang menunjukkan nonfarm payrolls meningkat 2,5 juta, berbanding terbalik dengan proyeksi analis yang memperkirakan penurunan. Sementara itu, pengangguran turun menjadi 13,3 persen di bulan Mei dari 14,7 persen.
Meskipun tingkat pengangguran masih sangat tinggi secara historis, ada gelombang antusiasme karena investor bertaruh pada ekonomi global yang dibanjiri dengan stimulus.
Langkah-langkah fiskal dan bantuan moneter dari Jerman dan ECB melampaui ekspektasi pekan ini. Selain itu, ada laporan bahwa pejabat pemerintahan Trump akan menggelontorkan stimulus lanjutan hingga US$1 triliun.
“Laporan tenaga kerja merupakan kejutan besar yang positif," kata kepala analis pendapatan tetap Schwab Center for Financial Research, Kathy Jones.
Kathy menambahkan bahwa indikator tren menunjukkan bahwa ketika negara membuka kembali perekonomian dan membuat orang kembali bekerja itu pertanda baik.
Indeks S&P 500 sekarang menguat lebih dari 40 persen dari posisi terendah tahun ini pada pertengahan Maret, bahkan ketika pandemi virus Corona (Covid-19) telah menewaskan lebih dari 100.000 jiwa di AS.
KONTAN.CO.ID - JAKARTA. Pasar saham Asia bergerak datar pada perdagangan Senin (18/5) pagi. Dalam sebuah wawancara akhir pekan kemarin, Gubernur Federal Reserve A Jerome Powell menuturkan perekonomian Amerika Serikat (AS) bakal sepenuhnya pulih tergantung pada vaksin virus corona.
CHINA DAILY:
Relief and stimulus measures essential to stave off recession
As confirmed COVID-19 cases around the world keep rising, the economic impact has exceeded that seen during the 2008 global financial crisis. Although another Great Depression may not be on the horizon, temporary shocks might lead to a significant downturn. In the face of disruptions caused by the novel coronavirus pandemic, relief measures and economic stimulus policies are both important. To offset external shocks, China should utilize relief and stimulus measures of no less than 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion). We should consider some factors: investment is no longer the main driving force of China's economy; "new infrastructure" is not strong enough to be the key growth engine; building metropolitan regions is constrained by slower urbanization, and construction of "old infrastructure" like railways, roads and airports has been running close to full capacity. At the same time, consumption has been the main force boosting China's economic growth. Small and medium-sized private enterprises and the service sector are the main creators of new jobs. Thus, economic relief measures should focus on micro, small and medium-sized private enterprises, exporters and traditional manufacturing industries, while the direction of economic stimulus should focus on consumption and service sector industries as well as the "new economy". The impact of the current pandemic has far exceeded that of the severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003. Affected by the contagion, enterprises are facing shocks not only in terms of labor shortages and supply chain disruptions, but also due to shrinking consumer demand for goods and services. Some enterprises are also facing risks in terms of cash flow, high debt and even bankruptcy. The pandemic may lead to economic recession this year, even worse than that seen in 2008. Economic growth in the United States is expected to slow to -2.8 percent for the full year. The growth rate of the eurozone may be -4.5 percent. China's GDP retreated by 6.8 percent in the first quarter, year-on-year. Without any new stimulus from the government, full-year growth estimates have been revised to 1 to 2 percent by some institutions, down from 6 percent at the beginning of this year. Although the uncertainty of the pandemic may prolong a recession, the contagion has not harmed the basic economic operating mechanism or structure. For enterprises, although short-term income has declined sharply, profits have deteriorated, fund liquidity is insufficient and the supply chain has been interrupted, the core competitiveness of most enterprises will not be harmed as long as the impact does not endure for long. Therefore, necessary relief measures and stimulus policies should be launched quickly, and sufficient measures to offset headwinds should be utilized before a large number of enterprises go bankrupt. This will help ease the economic recession and aid in a faster recovery. In the face of the global pandemic's impact and financial turmoil, many countries provided economic relief and stimulus policies in a timely and aggressive manner. In particular, Western developed countries such as the United States and Germany have cut interest rates to zero or subzero, providing unlimited monetary liquidity, and their economic rescue plans account for 10 to 20 percent of their GDP. For China's economy, under normal conditions, we advocate little to no stimulus and prefer to let the market play a decisive role in resource allocation. However, due to the severe shocks to both supply and demand, it is difficult for the economy to rapidly recover on its own. If we do not take timely measures to stabilize and stimulate the economy, the shrinking investment and consumption will form a negative "multiplier effect". The stock price plunge and credit crunch have led to more negative effects, playing a role as "financial accelerators". And company bankruptcies may lead to chain reactions in a growing debt crisis. In this extreme situation, if we still stick to a "no stimulus" policy, it will be unrealistic. Countercyclical policies amid economic downturns are key and include cutting interest rates. In the early stages of an economic recession, any single policy tool cannot be expected to bring immediate relief. But it can enhance confidence and reduce enterprises' financing costs. We should not shy away from using various policy tools at the expense of economic stability and employment. Differing from earlier rounds of economic stimulus, this time the plan should include consumption subsidies, small and medium-sized enterprise bailouts, support for emerging industries and building smart cities. The plan should not simply focus on investment in new or old types of construction investment. The central government will issue special treasury bonds and local governments will increase bond issuances. In addition, the government can require State-owned enterprises in tobacco and financial industries with huge cashflows to pay a large proportion of cash dividends, which can raise 2 trillion yuan in nontax revenue. We can also transfer 10 percent of State-owned equity to the social security fund and correspondingly reduce 2 trillion yuan in enterprise social security payments. In the face of such a severe economic "short depression", monetary policy undoubtedly should play the role of being a countercyclical measure and immediate, aggressive cuts in interest rates and reserve requirement ratios should be employed and not delayed by monetary policy transmission system reform or real estate policy. Structural monetary tightening will lead to economic slowdown, which will result in a contraction of corporate credit. Only when we believe in the decisive role of the market in resource allocation-and we cut interest rates and conduct monetary easing policy-can we solve the financing problems of private, micro, small and medium-sized enterprises and help lower the real interest rate, stimulate private investment and boost consumption.Bisnis.com, JAKARTA— Pasar saham dan minyak ditutup menguat pada penutupan pasar Jumat (15/5/2020).
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Ekonomi Amerika Serikat dinilai menghadapi risiko-risiko yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya akibat pandemi virus corona (Covid-19).
KONTAN.CO.ID - NEW YORK. Indeks S&P 500 dan Dow Jones tergelincir pada perdagangan hari Kamis (30/4) setelah laporan jumlah pengangguran yang suram di AS pada bulan ini diumumkan. Namun laporan pendapatan kuartal I 2020 dari Facebook dan Tesla yang meningkat menyokong indeks Nasdaq.
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Bank sentral Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat (AS) memutuskan untuk menahan suku bunga di kisaran level saat ini dan berjanji untuk mempertahankannya hingga ekonomi AS kembali pulih.
JAKARTA okezone - Aktivitas manufaktur di China dinyatakan menurun pada bulan April. Hal ini sebagai dampak pandemi virus corona terjadi dan menghentikan hampir semua aktivitas ekonomi global.
JAKARTA okezone - Perekonomian Amerika anjlok 4,8% di kuartal I-2020. Hal ini imbas adanya virus corona atau Covid-19 yang telah membekukan sebagian besar industri di Amerika Serikat.
Sebagaimana diketahui, pemerintah China baru saja mengumumkan pertumbuhan ekonomi negaranya yang anjlok hingga 6,8% pada kuartal I-2020 ini. Level itu bahkan lebih rendah daripada yang diperkirakan para analis sebelumnya. Kemerosotan ini adalah penurunan kuartal yang terburuk sejak tahun 1992. Ini juga adalah yang pertama kalinya China melaporkan kontraksi ekonomi sejak 1976 lalu. Saat itu, ekonomi China menurun sekitar 1,6%.
Tiga mesin utama pertumbuhan ekonomi China yakni konsumsi masyarakat, ekspor dan investasi aset tetap, sama-sama anjlok sejak diserang Corona. Belanja ritel turun 19% pada kuartal terakhir, sementara ekspor turun lebih dari 13% dan investasi aset tetap turun 16%.
"Data Maret menambah tanda-tanda yang lebih luas bahwa ekonomi China melewati masa terburuknya," ujar Julian dikutip dari CNN Business, Senin (20/4/2020).
Hingga akhir Maret 2020, jumlah pengangguran di China bertambah hingga 3,6 juta jiwa dari data akhir tahun sebelumnya.
BEIJING
Liputan6.com, Jakarta - Bursa berjangka bergerak datar dalam perdagangan semalam setelah reli besar di sesi sebelumnya dipicu oleh optimisme bahwa wabah virus corona membaik di AS.
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA - Credit Suisse Group AG menyarankan hedge fund yang berfokus ke China untuk berkomunikasi lebih banyak dengan investor. Pasalnya, ada kekhawatiran aksi jual bersih atau redemptiondari kawasan tersebut akan meningkat di tengah gejolak pasar.
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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Bursa saham Amerika Serikat bangkit ke zona hijau dan langsung melonjak lebih dari 5 persen pada awal perdagangan hari ini, Selasa (24/3/2020), didorong kembalinya minat investor untuk aset-aset berisiko.
CHINA DAILY: Timely measures calm jittery bourses amid rising row over globalization
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reached a record $4.7 trillion this week and banks grabbed cut rate loans from the central bank as efforts to blunt the economic damage of a global health crisis took hold.
KONTAN.CO.ID - JAKARTA. Wall Street melesat di perdagangan terakhir pekan ini setelah Presiden Amerika Serikat (AS) Donald Trump menyatakan darurat nasional virus corona pada Jumat (13/3).
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